Republican Kansas Caucus Preview

Kansas is the first state to head to the polls after Super Tuesday. With all four candidates vowing to continue, the results in the Sunflower State loom larger. Here's a rundown of how the process works in Kansas and what's at stake on Saturday, March 10:

* Kansas sends 40 delegates to the Republican National Convention, putting it on par with Massachusetts and Oklahoma, which voted on Super Tuesday. Mississippi, a critical test coming up next week, has the same number of delegates.

* Kansas has four congressional districts. Each district has three delegates. The districts are winner-take-all; the candidate with the highest total wins them all. In the event of a tie (in vote count, not statistically), each candidate receives one delegate, and the third goes to the convention uncommitted.

* The 25 remaining at-large delegates are assigned proportionally based on the statewide vote. Candidates that pass the 20 percent threshold are allocated delegates. If only one candidate passes the threshold, or no candidate does, then the threshold no longer applies to any candidate.

* The three party leaders (State Republican Party chair, National Committeeman and Committeewoman) are bound at the convention to vote for the candidate with the highest statewide vote.

* The Kansas caucus is a closed caucus. Only voters that are registered members of the Republican Party are allowed to participate in the GOP caucus. According to Kansas GOP rules, voters had to be registered as members of the party prior to February 17. Voters cannot show up on Caucus Day, switch registrations and participate.

* Caucusing begins at 10 a.m. Central Time. A complete list of caucus locations is available on the state party website.

* Each candidate on the ballot may have one representative speak for no more than ten minutes on issues of interest to Kansas voters. Voters have at least one hour after the conclusion of the presentations to submit their ballot. Results must be reported to the state headquarters by 5pm. This allows time for participants to continue to talk, deliberate and persuade other caucus-goers to vote for their candidate.

* All eight candidates who initially ran for the Republican nomination will appear on the ballot. Only four (Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich) are still actively running.

* No absentee ballots are available or allowed.

* At least one candidate seems to have written Kansas off. Newt Gingrich's campaign announced the candidate was no longer planning to appear in the state, as previously expected. As reported by the Topeka Capital Journal, Gingrich has been scheduled to visit the state party headquarters on Friday.

* Rep. Ron Paul sees Kansas as critical to his campaign. According to WIBW, the candidate will be in Kansas all day Friday, with plans to attend a rally in Topeka, and he may visit a caucus site on Saturday.

* Despite the number of delegates at stake in the caucuses, no polls of Kansas voters' preferences are available as of this writing.

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Nothing About Iowa Caucus Results Say Romney Is a True Front-Runner (ContributorNetwork)

COMMENTARY | Mitt Romney may have walked away with a "win" in Iowa, but not much of one. The results from the Associated Press shows a race that is still very much up in the air.

Romney left with 24.6 percent or the vote, garnering 30,015 votes. This is only eight votes higher than runner-up Rick Santorum, who got 30,007 votes, or 24.5 percent. Ron Paul's supporters also came out en mass to deliver him 21.5 percent of the vote, putting him in third place with 26,219 votes.

These three can walk away with some sort of momentum, but how much is a questionable. An important thing to notice is that none of them was able to get even a quarter of the vote. All three men have very different political views.

What does this spell for the GOP? It could mean a long, expensive, drawn-out primary season. Romney may be able to claim a win, but it's a sign that he is still weak. Nothing about this says "front-runner." If anything, is says people are still wary of Romney.

There were some definite losers in Iowa. Michele Bachmann got only 6,073 votes to put her at 5 percent. After this defeat, ABC News reports Bachmann has dropped out of the race. Her defeat in Iowa was a full 360 degree turn from her top spot in the Ames Straw Poll, showing just how much momentum she had lost over the last few months.

Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich also suffered in Iowa, netting 10.3 percent and 13.3 percent of the vote. The two of them combined don't surpass Santorum or Romney, giving them an uphill battle. Rick Perry has not given up though, as he posted on Twitter that he is ready for South Carolina. Newt Gingrich has also used Twitter to report that he is on the ground in Iowa, and is already attacking Romney as being "timid."

Jon Huntsman, who did not focus on Iowa, had his own take on the Iowa results. The Washington Post reported Huntsman said that "[t]his is an open race." He might be right. Without a clear front-runner in the race, it does leave you wondering what will happen next.

The Republican Party seems to be divided, and the longer they stay divided, the more money they will have to spend to defeat each other. The more the candidates attack each other, the easier they make it for Democrats to repeat the attacks and raise money themselves.

With no clear leader yet in the GOP race, it could mean we are all in for a long primary season. Romney has the most to lose, as he's been seen as the likely nominee. If he continues to perform poorly, people may start to lose faith in his ability to compete. Only time will tell where this race will go, but it will certainly be a race to follow.

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Turnout May Be the Most Reliable Forecaster from the Iowa Republican Caucus (ContributorNetwork)

ANALYSIS | The 2012 Republican Iowa caucus yielded a winner, barely. After months of ups and downs for each candidate, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum basically tied with 25 percent of the vote each. In fact, only eight votes separated the two candidates. Ron Paul was not far behind with 21 percent of the vote. Notably, former frontrunners Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, and Michelle Bachmann, who garnered 13 percent, 10 percent, and 5 percent of the vote respectively, had trouble drumming up their previously held popularity and now have to question the wisdom of staying in the race.

Traditionally, the Iowa caucuses have held the distinction of limiting a party's field down to a few candidates and setting the tone as the primary season gets underway. However, history tells us that is not always the case meaning Romney and Santorum may not be there in the end. In 2008, the Democrat race revealed its frontrunner in Iowa, when a relatively unknown Barack Obama garnered 37.6 percent of the vote to beat the relatively more popular John Edwards and Hillary Clinton. Needless to say, the 2008 Iowa Democratic caucus was an accurate predictor of the eventual Democrat nominee.

The 2008 Republic caucus, however, was not as accurate. Mike Huckabee took 34.4 percent of the vote while the eventual Republican nominee, John McCain, took just 13.1 percent trailing Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Fred Thompson. The Republican race changed significantly after the 2008 Iowa caucus. We may experience a similar roller coaster this year based on the months leading up to the 2012 Iowa caucus, the near tie between Romney and Santorum, and the relatively high turnout, which may be an indicator of Republican enthusiasm moving forward.

Over the last few months, polling has revealed wildly fluctuating numbers for the Republican hopefuls. First, it was Michelle Bachmann who, after a few impressive debate appearances, shot ahead in the polls. Ron Paul, the perennial candidate, has had his time in the limelight. Rick Perry shot ahead of Bachmann and appeared to be in the driver's seat before making a few gaffes and losing ground to the relatively unknown Herman Cain. Cain's demise began with rampant allegations of an affair and soon thereafter, Newt Gingrich took the lead.

So what does all this mean for the Republicans now that Romney and Santorum basically tied? As the 2008 Iowa Republican caucus demonstrated, the results are no sure indicator of the eventual nominee. The uncertainty seems even more relevant this time around given the extremely inconsistent polling and multiple leaders over the last few months. The 2012 Iowa caucus does lend itself to one predictor that is worth watching.

In 2008, a year of political volatility to be sure with an unpopular President Bush, a failing economy, and an unpopular war, both parties attempted to increase turnout by increasing interest and enthusiasm. It works for the Democrats as Barack Obama eventually enjoyed one of the largest turnouts ever for a presidential election.

This election is shaping up to be a volatile one as well. The economy is still sputtering along and President Obama's approval rating has suffered. The Republicans will certainly look to increase the turnout, and it appears that has begun already. In 2008, the Republican turnout at the Iowa caucus was 118,696, a relatively high number. This year's caucus saw even more vote with a Republican turnout of 122,255.

The results of the 2012 Iowa Republican Caucus results may not tell us much in regard to who the party will put forward as their nominee and challenger to President Obama. However, the turnout in this early caucus does indicate that the Republicans may enjoy a bump in numbers from increased turnout similar to what Obama experienced during his trek to the White House in 2008.

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Iowa Caucus Victory Doesn’t Necessarily Secure GOP Nomination (ContributorNetwork)

The Iowa caucus is one month away. Republican candidates for president will begin to discern how much voters approve of them Jan. 3, when Iowans choose their candidate for the GOP nominee. The Hill reports the GOP field is wide open. Newt Gingrich is moving up in the polls. Herman Cain is in crisis mode as he suspended his campaign amid allegations of an extramarital affair. Mitt Romney is trying to be victorious in Iowa where he hasn't been successful in the past.

Even if a surprise candidate wins the Iowa caucus, it's doesn't necessarily mean that person will be the Republican nominee. History isn't necessarily on the winning candidate's side.

* The Des Moines Register lists results of past caucuses. Republicans released numbers going back to 1980. A summary was only available for 1976.

* In the 1980 Iowa caucus, George Bush defeated Ronald Reagan by over 2,000 votes for the GOP choice. Reagan went on to win the Republican nomination and then the presidency with Bush as his running mate for vice president. Future candidate Bob Dole only got 1,576 votes at just 1.5 percent.

* Eight years later, Kansas Sen. Bob Dole received over 40,000 votes in the Iowa caucus on his way to a bid for the presidency. Bush came in third place with half as many votes yet he went on to win the 1988 general election over Michael Dukakis, according to the U.S. Election Atlas.

* The 1996 Iowa caucus actually got the GOP nominee correct. Dole received the overall nomination in a crowded field of nine candidates vying for votes in the "first in the nation" election. Dole won narrowly over Pat Buchanan by less than 3,000 votes.

* George W. Bush won the Iowa caucus in 2000 by a full 11 percentage points. Sen. John McCain came in fifth place with just over 4,000 votes.

* The New York Times reports the 2008 Iowa caucus was one of the more interesting in history. Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee got over 40,000 votes while his closest competition received 29,949 votes. Romney, the current front runner, was the one who got second. McCain was the future nominee but voters wouldn't know it by his showing in Iowa. Then-Sen. Barack Obama's opponent came in a distant fourth place with just over 15,500 votes.

Even though Iowa is first in the nation when it comes to picking presidential nominees for elections, winning the Iowa caucus doesn't guarantee success nationally. Perhaps both Romney and Gingrich should realize that as they try to win the day on Jan. 3.

William Browning is a research librarian specializing in U.S. politics. Born in St. Louis, Browning is active in local politics and served as a campaign volunteer for President Barack Obama and Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill.

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