ANALYSIS | The 2012 Republican Iowa caucus yielded a winner, barely. After months of ups and downs for each candidate, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum basically tied with 25 percent of the vote each. In fact, only eight votes separated the two candidates. Ron Paul was not far behind with 21 percent of the vote. Notably, former frontrunners Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, and Michelle Bachmann, who garnered 13 percent, 10 percent, and 5 percent of the vote respectively, had trouble drumming up their previously held popularity and now have to question the wisdom of staying in the race.
Traditionally, the Iowa caucuses have held the distinction of limiting a party's field down to a few candidates and setting the tone as the primary season gets underway. However, history tells us that is not always the case meaning Romney and Santorum may not be there in the end. In 2008, the Democrat race revealed its frontrunner in Iowa, when a relatively unknown Barack Obama garnered 37.6 percent of the vote to beat the relatively more popular John Edwards and Hillary Clinton. Needless to say, the 2008 Iowa Democratic caucus was an accurate predictor of the eventual Democrat nominee.
The 2008 Republic caucus, however, was not as accurate. Mike Huckabee took 34.4 percent of the vote while the eventual Republican nominee, John McCain, took just 13.1 percent trailing Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Fred Thompson. The Republican race changed significantly after the 2008 Iowa caucus. We may experience a similar roller coaster this year based on the months leading up to the 2012 Iowa caucus, the near tie between Romney and Santorum, and the relatively high turnout, which may be an indicator of Republican enthusiasm moving forward.
Over the last few months, polling has revealed wildly fluctuating numbers for the Republican hopefuls. First, it was Michelle Bachmann who, after a few impressive debate appearances, shot ahead in the polls. Ron Paul, the perennial candidate, has had his time in the limelight. Rick Perry shot ahead of Bachmann and appeared to be in the driver's seat before making a few gaffes and losing ground to the relatively unknown Herman Cain. Cain's demise began with rampant allegations of an affair and soon thereafter, Newt Gingrich took the lead.
So what does all this mean for the Republicans now that Romney and Santorum basically tied? As the 2008 Iowa Republican caucus demonstrated, the results are no sure indicator of the eventual nominee. The uncertainty seems even more relevant this time around given the extremely inconsistent polling and multiple leaders over the last few months. The 2012 Iowa caucus does lend itself to one predictor that is worth watching.
In 2008, a year of political volatility to be sure with an unpopular President Bush, a failing economy, and an unpopular war, both parties attempted to increase turnout by increasing interest and enthusiasm. It works for the Democrats as Barack Obama eventually enjoyed one of the largest turnouts ever for a presidential election.
This election is shaping up to be a volatile one as well. The economy is still sputtering along and President Obama's approval rating has suffered. The Republicans will certainly look to increase the turnout, and it appears that has begun already. In 2008, the Republican turnout at the Iowa caucus was 118,696, a relatively high number. This year's caucus saw even more vote with a Republican turnout of 122,255.
The results of the 2012 Iowa Republican Caucus results may not tell us much in regard to who the party will put forward as their nominee and challenger to President Obama. However, the turnout in this early caucus does indicate that the Republicans may enjoy a bump in numbers from increased turnout similar to what Obama experienced during his trek to the White House in 2008.
