Pa. Republicans Aim to Pass Voter ID Legislation (ContributorNetwork)

Back in 2006, Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, a Democrat, vetoed a bill that a largely Republican legislature passed that would have required voters to show identification before casting a vote in any election. Fast forward to 2011 and the Republicans are asserting their presence to bring photo ID verification to places of polling everywhere, reports he Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. This time around, Republicans control the state House, Senate, and governorship. A bill that would require voters to show photo ID before having their say may speed through into law. Here is a look at some of the questions:

Why require photo ID to vote?

The main reason behind a photo ID requirement has to do with eliminating voter fraud, according to the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. While the exact number of instances of voter fraud in Pennsylvania is somewhat unclear, in 2008 the GOP claimed that a community group, ACORN, had falsely registered voters to swing support in favor of soon-to-be-President Barack Obama. ACORN would soon after have a few problems of its own.

Would the be any exceptions?

While Pennsylvania Democrats attempted to place a number of exceptions to the photo ID rule via amendments to the bill, Republicans managed to shoot them all down. However, the bill includes exceptions for anyone with religious beliefs against being photographed and residents in care facilities that serve as their place of polling.

Will the state senate pass the bill?

State senators have said they will review the bill before acting on it. Since the legislation passed along party lines in the House, the Senate is likely to pass the bill along similar lines. By extension, Corbett, who is Republican, is likely to put his signature to the document.

Is the bill constitutional?

While opinions are somewhat split, the constitutionality of the law was challenged by state Democrats several times. The main sticking point is that photo IDs generally need to be purchased, which could come into play in the inevitable legal challenge to the legislation. The Lubbock Avalanche-Journal, other states are also grappling with the same problem. However, supporters are quick to point out that the law simply guarantees the constitutional right of one person and one vote.

Isn't it going to cost money to enforce the law?

In short, enforcement of any legislation costs money. As for how much, no one really has that answer, but Democrats claim the total could be millions of dollars a year, reports the Associated Press.

Jason Gallagher is a former travel professional and long-time Pennsylvania resident. These experiences give him a first-hand look at developing situations in the state and everything included in the travel industry from technology to trends.

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Romney revives Thatcher campaign ad (AFP)

WASHINGTON (AFP) – Mitt Romney Friday compared President Barack Obama's America to the economic blight of 1970s Britain, invoking an iconic campaign advertisement to boost his Republican presidential run.

"Obama Isn't Working" read a mocked-up campaign poster on Romney's website, in tribute to the Conservative Party's devastating "Labour Isn't Working" ad, which helped Margaret Thatcher sweep to power in 1979.

The Romney version, apart from a slogan adapted to Obama, features the same picture of a snaking line of workers outside an unemployment office used by the original ad, designed by the Saatchi and Saatchi agency.

In a posting on Romney's blog, the campaign noted the ad had been referred to as the "poster of the century" and invoked Labour-led Britain's economic climate of high unemployment, rising inflation and a growing national debt.

"Those conditions and the public discontent throughout the country during that election and the parallels that Americans face today cannot be ignored," the post said.

"With 9.1 percent unemployed, record deficits, a soaring national debt, and millions of struggling families, one thing is clear -- Obama isn't working, either."

The blog tribute to former British prime minister Thatcher, a heroine for US conservatives, was released after the Boston Globe reported that Romney would travel to London next month to drum up campaign cash from Americans abroad.

Republican frontrunner Romney is building his campaign for next year's primary and caucus nominating contests on a lacerating critique of Obama's economic management, saying the president has made things worse.

"Now, in the third year of his four-year term, we have more than promises and slogans to go by. Barack Obama has failed America," Romney said when he launched his campaign in New Hampshire on June 2.

The former Massachusetts governor on Friday also released a new web ad, featuring video of Obama taken in February 2009 in which the president said if he had not turned the economy around within three years he could be a one-term president.

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Rick Perry may have tough time swaying Latino voters (Daily Caller)

As speculation swirls that Texas Gov. Rick Perry may enter the race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, the Miami Herald reports he may have difficulty attracting Latino voters.

Yesterday in San Antonio, Perry addressed the 28th annual conference of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials. The governor’s speech made mention both of his record of appointing Hispanics and his economic achievement as the state’s executive. And though he received polite applause, the mood was tense.

(Perry joke about Jose Cuervo falls flat at Latino convention)

At the root could be the governor’s inclusion of a “sanctuary city” bill in the special session of the state legislature. The bill threatens to withhold state aid from local governments that prevent police officers from asking about immigration status. Hispanics may also be upset with a bill Perry signed into law last month, requiring photo identification at polling stations. Both are hot-button issues for Latinos.

And Latino voters could prove to be a crucial demographic in 2012. They’re expected to turn out in record numbers, with a possible 26% increase in Latino turnout from the 2008 election.

Perry, a master politician, avoided any mention of the sanctuary city bill or the photo identification bill during his speech, instead focusing on broad themes. He also addressed the audience, saying Hispanic contributions were important for “the future of Texas.” The state’s future, he said to the Latino crowd, is “incredibly right because of men and women like you.”

But one of Perry’s opponents remains cautious. Democratic state representative Trey Martinez Fischer, chairman of Texas’ Mexican-American Legislative Caucus, told the Herald: “Governor Perry is a phenomenal politician and he can campaign like no other, but you’ve got to get beyond the person…Latino voters will look at action but not words. When Latinos scrutinize the actions that have been taken in this state, they’ll look for another choice.”

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Evangelicals favor Tim Pawlenty in new 2012 poll (The Ticket)

Tim Pawlenty has been working hard to make inroads among evangelical voters ahead of next year's GOP primary, and it appears his efforts might be working.

A new poll of evangelical leaders by the National Association of Evangelicals finds that a plurality of those surveyed—45 percent—want Pawlenty to be the 2012 Republican nominee. Mitt Romney trailed, with 14 percent support, while 22 percent said they were undecided.

As The Ticket previously reported, Pawlenty has sought to cast himself as an alternative to Romney among social conservatives, who remain skeptical about the ex-Massachusetts governor's standing on issues like abortion.

Earlier this week, Romney was criticized for refusing to sign a sweeping anti-abortion pledge sponsored by the Susan B. Anthony List.

But some leading evangelicals have openly questioned whether Pawlenty has the charisma to beat Romney or President Obama.

In February, Richard Land, policy chief of the Southern Baptist Convention, said Pawlenty was a "nice guy" but he "doesn't move crowds the way some do."

(Photo of Pawlenty: Win McNamee/Getty Images)

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GOP Candidates Are Ready for a National Conversation on Race (The Atlantic Wire)

In March of 2008, then-candidate Barack Obama gave a widely-praised speech calling for a national conversation on race. A little more than two years later, that conversation had only gotten "dumber," Politico's Ben Smith wrote, with Fox News constantly airing images of "new Black Panthers" and MSNBC hunting for racists in the Tea Party. But now it seems the Republican presidential field is ready to renew that dialogue. Newt Gingrich told Maryland Republicans Thursday night that, "No administration in modern times has failed younger blacks more than the Obama administration." But the Republican candidates are still finding their footing when it comes to race, occasionally saying something kind of... weird. Gingrich noted, "I will bet you there is not a single precinct in this state in which the majority will pick for their children food stamps over paychecks." Was there ever any doubt of that?

Related: First GOP Debate with Recognizable Candidates Will Be on June 13

Gingrich--who has a long history of talking about racial issues--has called Obama the "food stamp president" (he would be the "paycheck president"). But he isn't the only 2012 contender to say it's time to go after the black vote. At the Republican Leadership Conference in New Orleans last weekend, Michele Bachmann pointed to high unemployment rates among blacks and Latinos and said, "This president has failed the Hispanic community. He has failed the African-American community." Bachmann managed to avoid sounding tone deaf, unlike some of her 2012 rivals.

Related: GOP Debate Preview: Hey, We're Not So Bad

Rick Santorum has focused less on economic issues than social ones in his flirtation with minority voters--which makes sense, given that black voters are generally more socially conservative than the rest of the Democratic Party. But he got into trouble making his case on abortion. "I find it almost remarkable for a black man to say, 'No, we're going to decide who are people and who are not people,'" Santorum said, referring to the Three-Fifths Compromise, which said slaves counted as 60 percent of a person in awarding states seats in Congress.

Related: The GOP Presidential Field Keeps an Even Lower Profile

Texas Gov. Rick Perry, currently enjoying a lot of buzz and he considers getting into the 2012 race, appeared to have a tin ear Thursday night at a national conference for Latino government officials in San Antonio. The Associated Press' Chris Tomlinson reports that Perry got a very tepid response from the audience during his speech, with this being the biggest cringe moment:

But a joke about how perfect it was to appoint Jose Cuevas to the Texas Alcoholic Beverage Commission because his name sounds like Jose Cuervo--a brand of tequila--fell flat. Perry struggled to regain his confidence as he described Texas as a land of opportunity.

Slate's Dave Weigel observes that Herman Cain causes some reporters to stutter stupidly when trying to ask him about race. Still, his comments about being a black Republican occasionally raise eyebrows. He likes to say his his poll numbers show the Tea Party isn't racist. He says he's okay with being the "black Mike Huckabee." He says Jon Stewart makes fun of him because he's black. And, in an interview with Jeffrey Goldberg, he seemed to say he was more authentically black than Obama: "Most of the ancestors that I can trace were born here in the United States of America," Cain said. "And then it goes back to slavery. And I'm sure my ancestors go all the way back to Africa, but I feel more of an affinity for America than I do for Africa. I'm a black man in America. ... Barack Obama is more of an international."

Related: 15 Months from the Convention, Here's Your Republican Field

Disaffected Republican speechwriter David Frum says Republicans aren't wrong to try to appeal to minority voters. He writes that Gingrich is "making sense... when he asserts that the social catastrophe creates a political opportunity for a party that can bring forward practical ideas to revive economic growth." But Frum says Gingrich falters when he fails to realize that non-Republicans--especially minorities--don't hate Obama as much as Republicans do.

"Given that minority voters in particular do not blame Obama for the bad economy--in fact, continue to respect and admire him--the mood of raging Republican contempt for the president almost guarantees that we will speak about him in ways that deny us any audience for our policy message."

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New York governor signs law approving gay marriage (Reuters)

ALBANY, New York (Reuters) – Governor Andrew Cuomo made same-sex marriages legal in New York on Friday, a key victory for gay rights ahead of the 2012 presidential and congressional elections.

New York will become the sixth and most populous U.S. state to allow gay marriage. State senators voted 33-29 on Friday evening to approve marriage equality legislation and Cuomo, a Democrat who had introduced the measure, signed it into law.

"This vote today will send a message across the country. This is the way to go, the time to do it is now, and it is achievable; it's no longer a dream or an aspiration. I think you're going to see a rapid evolution," Cuomo, who is in his first year of office, told a news conference.

"We reached a new level of social justice," he said.

Same-sex weddings can start taking place in New York in 30 days, though religious institutions and nonprofit groups with religious affiliations will not be compelled to officiate at such ceremonies. The legislation also gives gay couples the right to divorce.

"I have to define doing the right thing as treating all persons with equality and that equality includes within the definition of marriage," Republican Senator Stephen Saland said before the bill was passed. He was one of four Republicans to vote for the legislation.

Cheers erupted in the Senate gallery in the state capital Albany and among a crowd of several hundred people who gathered outside New York City's Stonewall Inn, where a police raid in 1969 sparked the modern gay rights movement.

"It's about time. I want to get married. I want the same rights as anyone else," Caroline Jaeger, 36, a student, who was outside the Stonewall Inn.

But New York's Catholic bishops said they were "deeply disappointed and troubled" by the passage of the bill.

"We always treat our homosexual brothers and sisters with respect, dignity and love. But we just as strongly affirm that marriage is the joining of one man and one woman," the state's Catholic Conference said in a statement.

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, an advocate for gay marriage who lobbied state lawmakers in recent weeks, said the vote was an "historic triumph for equality and freedom."

"Together, we have taken the next big step on our national journey toward a more perfect union," he said in a statement.

ELECTION ISSUE

President Barack Obama, who attended a fund-raiser in New York on Thursday for Gay Pride Week, has a nuanced stance on gay issues. Experts say he could risk alienating large portions of the electorate if he came out strongly in favor of such matters as gay marriage before the 2012 elections.

During the 2008 election, Obama picked up important support from Evangelicals, Catholics, Latinos and African-Americans, some of whom oppose gay marriage, which has become a contentious social issue being fought state-by-state.

In California a judge last year overturned a ban on gay marriage, but no weddings can take place while the decision is being appealed. It could set national policy if the case reaches the U.S. Supreme Court.

Connecticut, Iowa, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Vermont and the District of Columbia allow same-sex marriage, and Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois and New Jersey approved civil unions. The first legal same-sex marriages in the United States took place in Massachusetts in 2004.

But gay marriage is banned in 39 states.

In New York a recent Siena poll found 58 percent of New Yorkers support gay marriage, while nationally the U.S. public is nearly evenly split, with 45 percent in favor and 46 percent opposed, according to a Pew Research poll released last month.

New York City's marketing and tourism group NYC & Company said it was gearing up to turn the city into "the gay weddings destination." "The new legislation is good news for the City's $31 billion travel and tourism industry," said NYC & Company Chief Executive George Fertitta.

New York's Democrat-dominated Assembly voted 80-63 in favor of gay marriage last week and passed the amended legislation on Friday 82-47.

A key sticking point had been over an exemption that would allow religious officials to refuse to perform services or lend space for same-sex weddings. Most Republicans were concerned the legal protection was not strong enough, so legislative leaders worked with Cuomo to amend his original bill.

"God, not Albany, settled the definition of marriage a long time ago," said Senator Ruben Diaz Sr., a Pentecostal minister and the only Democrat to vote against the measure.

However, fears of a slew of litigation arising from a possible religious exemption to New York's proposed same-sex marriage law are not borne out by experience with similar laws in other states, legal experts say.

(Additional reporting by Phil Wahba, writing by Michelle Nichols, editing by Anthony Boadle and Philip Barbara)

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LAST TICKET: Glenn Beck makes Rick Santorum uncomfortable, Romney to London, Pawlenty beefs up media buy in Iowa… (The Ticket)

Here are the stories we took note of today but didn't give the full blog treatment:

• Days after House Speaker John Boehner played a round of golf with President Obama, GOP Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy said the president should "get off the golf course." (Bloomberg News)

• Mitt Romney is heading to London to raise cash from expats. (CBS News)

• Glenn Beck to Rick Santorum while shaking hands on camera: "I could kiss you in the mouth!" (Mediaite)

• Tim Pawlenty buys $14,000 of radio time in Iowa on top of a $50,000 TV ad campaign. (Ben Smith)

• Romney channels Margaret Thatcher. (Slate)

• Sarah Palin's move "The Undefeated" premieres in Iowa next week. (Des Moines Register)

• Herman Cain continues to endear himself to the press. (The Note)

• Van Jones launches a "liberal tea party." (The Fix)

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Obama Slow-Rolls GOP on Budget Talks (Daily Caller)

The White House is slow-rolling demands by Republicans that President Barack Obama join the debt ceiling talks, which are now deadlocked because of Republican opposition to Democrats’ demands for tax increases.

A Friday announcement by the White House’s press office said Obama will meet with the Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell early Monday evening “to discuss the status of the negotiations to find common ground on a balanced approach to deficit reduction.” Prior to that Obama will meet with Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. No meeting was announced with leaders of the Republican majority in the House.

White House spokesman Jay Carney declined to say when the president would meet with House Speaker John Boehner, even though he was asked repeatedly by reporters in a Friday press conference. “The President hasn’t had any conversations with the Speaker since the Speaker visited the White House the other night… We are in constant contact with leaders of Congress.  I just told you that the Vice President of the United States has been in touch with both Republicans and Democrats on the Hill in the last 24 hours, and that continues… I have no other meetings to announce at this time,” Carney said.

Following the Thursday breakdown in the talks, both Biden and Obama were out of town on Friday. Biden traveled to Delaware and Obama flew to a high-tech center in Pittsburgh, Pa.

Obama is avoiding the negotiations to concentrate public and media attention on the Republicans, said Wes Anderson, a partner of OnMessage Inc., a polling firm in Crofton, Md., that mostly works for GOP candidates.

“As long as this is an argument about Republicans saying ‘How do we make sure we meet the expectations of the voters who sent us?’ then no one is blaming the Democrats for not providing leadership and not getting this done,” he said. “When the president is only tangentially in the the conversation, that’s good for them, it’s not good for us,” he said.

The debt ceiling controversy is politically critical because it is likely to have an impact on the 2012 election, not just on the government’s balance sheet.

Obama is already riding low in the polls, and the Democrats will lose control of the Senate if Republicans win just 4 of the 23 Democrat-held seats up for election in 2012.

Republicans worry their fired-up base will lose heart if the GOP fails to win a good deal on the debt ceiling. They’re less likely to get a good deal if Obama slow-rolls the talks until a financial crisis arrives in late July.

In such a crisis, administration officials can allocate budget cuts and direct media coverage to maximize the political pain for Republicans, said a GOP Senate staffer. The resulting public anger would likely pressure Republicans into a deal that splits their base, the staffer said. Democrats have already used that strategy during government-shutdown talks in April and in the mid-1990s, he said.

Democrats “believe if we get to the [August 2] deadline and there’s no deal there would be panic in the [financial] markets, and the voters will blame the Republicans,”Anderson said.

The deadline exists because the federal government has already incurred cumulative debts of $14.3 trillion, and this year’s budget has an extra deficit of more than $1 trillion. The government has to give itself legal authority to borrow more money by Aug. 2 , or else White House officials must start making cuts in programs and debt payments that will spur public anger towards Washington.

GOP activists also worry that a mishandled deal could prompt swing voters to shift from anti-Obama attitudes to a general anti-incumbent mood. “The real questions is if there is [only] $2 trillion in budget cuts, do we meet the expectations among independents and Republicans that we have done what we need to do?” said Anderson, who completed a mid-June poll of 1,000-likely voters for the small-government group, Let Freedom Ring. The poll, he said, shows that swing voters want “$2 trillion plus something that shows permanency, that shows systematic change and and reform,” he said.

The swing voters, he said, “are more angry and nervous and scared about out-of-control government now than they were in October last year,” he said. If Republicans manage the debt negotiations well, he said, the 2012 election ”will be an anti-Democratic cycle, but if we don’t live up to the expectations of the voters, it will be anti-incumbent.”

On Thursday, Rep. Eric Cantor, the leading House Republican in the talks, said there would be no budget deal unless the negotiators also agree to changes to Congress budget-making process. Those budget rules, which were set by a wave of left-wing Democrats elected in 1974, tend to ratchet government spending up each year.

On Friday, House Speaker John Boehner repeated this demand for budget reforms. “The American people voted for a new majority in the House with clear orders to end the spending binge in Washington,” he said in a statement. “The American people will not accept an increase in the debt limit that is accompanied by job-crushing tax hikes and fails to dramatically cut and reform government spending.”

Democrats, however, emphasize polls that show support for tax increases.

An April New York Times/CBS News poll showed that 72 percent supported tax increases on people earning more than $250,000 a year. In recent days, several top Democrats, including Biden and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, have said the budget talks should raise taxes.

Meanwhile, the president is using his public appearances to shape the debate. “What you’re going to see over the next several months, but also over the next several years, is a debate about who we are — because there’s a way for us to solve our deficit problems and our debt problems in a way that’s fair and balanced and that shares sacrifice so that we’re not just doing it on the backs of the poor,” he told attendees at a June 23 fundraiser attended mostly by African-Americans, who paid $100 for their tickets to the Broadway Theatre in New York.

The speech was mostly upbeat, but repeated a frequent Democratic criticism of the GOP. “The notion that [the wealthy] should not have to pay a little more; the notion that [wealthy people] would get a $200,000 tax break, and as a consequence of that tax break, hundreds of kids might not be able to go to Head Start, or… senior citizens might end up having to pay thousands of dollars more for their Medicare… that’s not who I think we are,” he said.

White House spokesman Carney repeated the same message in the Friday press conference. “We won’t support an approach that gives millionaires and billionaires $200,000 in tax cuts annually while 33 seniors pay for that with a $6,000 per person increase in their Medicare costs.  We just don’t believe that that’s a fair or balanced approach to solving this problem.”

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Why the latest round of debt talks ground to a halt (The Christian Science Monitor)

Washington – With the exit of GOP negotiators and collapse of the debt talks led by Vice President Joe Biden, the onus of solving America’s debt crisis falls to President Obama, House Speaker John Boehner (R) of Ohio, and Senate majority leader Harry Reid (D) of Nevada.

This punt to the top is only the latest in a series of failed bids to make the toxic political choices that are needed, as early as Aug. 2, to avoid a default on the $14.3 trillion national debt. Options on the table, each fiercely defended by one party, include trillions of dollars in spending cuts, billions in tax increases, and overhauls of iconic entitlement programs.

Mr. Biden had hoped to present a “blueprint for putting America’s fiscal house in order” by the July recess, which begins for the House on Friday. Instead, these talks derailed over the scope of spending cuts and the prospect of tax increases. Still, Biden said, the aim of the talks from the outset was to “report our findings back to our respective leaders.”

RECOMMENDED: Debt ceiling 101

“The next phase is in the hands of those leaders, who need to determine the scope of an agreement that can tackle the problem and attract bipartisan support,” he said in a statement Thursday. “For now the talks are in abeyance as we await that guidance.”

On Monday morning, Mr. Obama and Biden will meet with Senator Reid and, in the evening, with Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell (R) of Kentucky to discuss the status of the debt negotiations.

Previous bipartisan efforts to chart a path out of unsustainable debt also derailed over the mix of spending cuts and tax increases. The chairs of the president’s 2010 deficit commission produced a plan to cut $4 trillion over 10 years, which failed a vote by the full commission and was ignored by both Obama and Congress. Six senators launched an independent, bipartisan “Gang of Six” to implement that plan, but it hit an impasse over entitlement cuts. Sen. Tom Coburn (R) of Oklahoma, the key link to conservatives, walked out on May 17.

The Biden talks, launched on May 5, included four Democrats and two Republicans with ties to leadership. Meeting weekly, then several times a week, negotiators produced a shortlist of some $2 trillion in proposed cuts over 10 years – including agricultural subsidies, federal employee pensions, and student loans.

But Democrats said that spending cuts had to be balanced by tax increases – including the elimination of “wasteful subsidiesâ€

On Wednesday, Senate Democratic leaders added another element to the mix by calling on the Biden negotiators to include a jobs plan to help stimulate the economy. “Cutting is only part of the game,â€

“We're seeking policies to build roads and bridges and dams and water systems and sewer systems, to create clean-energy jobs, to provide tax incentives for businesses to hire new employees,” he added. “They've been proven to create jobs in the past, and they have had, in the past, broad bipartisan support.”

It was a bridge too far for Republicans. But when House majority leader Eric Cantor (R) of Virginia and Senate minority whip Jon Kyl (R) of Arizona quit the talks on Thursday, they cited the dispute over tax increases and new plans for stimulus spending.

The House won’t vote to increase taxes, so taxes are off the table, said Representative Cantor, who led the walkout on Day 50 of the talks. “I believe it is time for the president to speak clearly and resolve the tax issue,” he said in a statement. “Once resolved, we have a blueprint to move forward to trillions of spending cuts and binding mechanisms to change the way things are done around here.”

Senator McConnell took to the floor after the walkout. “Most Americans had to wonder if they were dreaming this morning when they saw this headline: ‘Democrats call for new spending in US debt deal.’ More spending? As a solution to a debt crisis? What planet are they on?”

Still, Senate Republicans have taken a more conciliatory stance than their House counterparts in the Biden talks. In recent weeks, Senator Kyl said that spending and entitlement cuts could cover more than a 10-year period. And McConnell said that Republicans were open to short-term deals, if Congress can’t resolve the entire issue by Aug. 2.

House GOP leaders, on the other hand, see this moment as a historic opportunity to roll back the scope of government and set the nation on a new fiscal path. They are holding out for at least $2.4 trillion in spending cuts – the size needed to cover the increase in the debt ceiling through 2012.

House Republicans are also drawing a line on tax increases, including no cuts in corporate tax breaks unless such cuts are offset by new tax cuts elsewhere.

Yet over in the Senate, McConnell and 32 other Republicans joined Democrats in voting for a stand-alone cut in the subsidy for ethanol – a move that could open the door to including tax breaks in a blueprint for lower deficits. It's a move explicitly ruled out by the taxpayer pledge of Americans for Tax Reform, which scores members of Congress on their adherence to pledging not to raise taxes.

Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D) of Maryland, the top Democrat on the House Budget Committee and a negotiator in the Biden talks, blames this rigidity over the pledge – which requires net offsets for ending any tax loophole – as the reason for Cantor’s exit.

Cantor denies that claim. “This was not just a matter of loopholes,” said Brad Dayspring, a Cantor spokesman. “Tax increases are a nonstarter.”

He added, “The way to move forward is to have the president get involved. Eric is confident there’s a foundation there for an agreement.”

While necessary at this point, the prospect of a deal emerging from a Gang of Three at the White House is unsettling to lawmakers at both ends of the political spectrum. They fear they will be forced to accept a deal under the gun of a government shutdown.

“It will be unacceptable for the White House talks or any talks to produce a controversial decision at the 11th hour and for them to come before the Congress all in a panic and say: ‘You’ve got to pass this solution that we have come up with in secret,’ ” said Sen. Bernard Sanders (I) of Vermont, one of the Senate’s strongest liberals, in a floor speech on Thursday.

Meanwhile, 98 House Republicans and 22 GOP senators have endorsed legislation sponsored by Rep. Tom McClintock (R) of California and Sen. Patrick Toomey (R) of Pennsylvania that aims to avoid default on the national debt by requiring the Treasury to pay debt obligations before any other government expenditures.

US debt risks exceeding the size of the US economy by 2021, according to a report released this week by the Congressional Budget Office.

RECOMMENDED: Debt ceiling 101

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Karl Rove 'super PAC' won't favor any 2012 candidate during primaries (The Christian Science Monitor)

Washington – Supporters of Mitt Romney, the front-runner in the Republican presidential field, have launched a “super PAC” to raise money to promote his candidacy, even as leaders of American Crossroads, the biggest of the Republican super PACs, promised Friday to remain neutral during the primary season.

That signals that American Crossroads intends to save most of its fire for the general election, when the GOP nominee will be up against a well-funded President Obama, and will not choose a horse in the GOP nominating race.

The wrinkle in that scenario is that the new pro-Romney PAC and American Crossroads share a key executive – an overlap that had reporters closely questioning the Crossroads leaders about the neutrality assertion when they appeared Friday at a Monitor-sponsored breakfast gathering.

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Since the 2010 Supreme Court decision that opened the door to campaign spending by a wider array of contributors, so-called super PACs (political action committees) have been springing up. It's now permissible for these super PACs to raise unlimited amounts of money from individuals, corporations, and unions, as long as the donors are disclosed and the groups do not coordinate their spending with federal candidates.

According to a Washington Post report, Romney supporters have launched Restore Our Future PAC. It is not known how much Restore Our Future has already raised to support the Romney campaign.

American Crossroads, a group founded by Karl Rove, former President Bush's political adviser, among others, insists it will remain neutral during the 2012 primary season.

“It is important for us to clearly state that Crossroads … will not be involved in the Republican presidential primary. We are just not going to do that,” said the group's chairman, Mike Duncan. Though the group says it will not spend money to advance the cause of any primary candidate, it might spend as the primary season ends if Democrats attack the GOP's presumptive nominee, its executives said.

Reporters asked Mr. Duncan and Steven Law, the group’s president and CEO, pointed questions about American Crossroads' neutrality. The Washington Post story about the pro-Romney super PAC noted that its board of directors includes political operative Carl Forti, who was political director for Romney’s 2008 presidential campaign. Mr. Forti is now political director of American Crossroads.

“Carl is a contract employee with American Crossroads. He has other clients; we knew he had other clients. But clearly none of us are going to be involved personally in presidential campaigns. And he is not either,” Duncan said.

“The only thing I would add to that,” said Mr. Law, “is the work that Carl does for us is work that every contender for the Republican nomination would be supportive of, which is that he is helping find ways to make sure President Obama does not return to office.”

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Top GOP fundraiser: 'There's not too much money in politics' (The Christian Science Monitor)

Washington – Is politics awash with too much money?

Mike Duncan, chairman of American Crossroads, doesn't think so. His group, which solicits money to spend on behalf of conservative politicians, aims to raise $120 million to support GOP candidates in the 2012 election.

“There is not too much money in politics,” Mr. Duncan said Friday, in defense of his group's goal.

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It is a matter of context, Duncan said at a Monitor-sponsored breakfast with reporters. "Our $120 million is in relation to a couple billion [dollars] on the other side.... We will probably be outspent as a party in this election.â€

In 2008, the Obama campaign raised $750 million. The Obama team is expected to spend more than that trying to get the president reelected in 2012.

American Crossroads, a Republican-backed independent group, was launched by Karl Rove, President Bush's former political adviser, among others. Mr. Rove acted after a 2010 Supreme Court decision, in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, made it permissible for "super PACs" to raise unlimited amounts of money from individuals, corporations, and unions, as long as the donors are disclosed and the groups do not coordinate their spending with federal candidates.

The $120 million goal includes funds that would be raised by American Crossroads, a tax-exempt 527 organization under Internal Revenue Service rules, and its affiliate, Crossroads GPS, a 501(c)4 group. Under the law, Crossroads GPS is not required to disclose donors' names to the public.

Crossroads President and CEO Steven Law said labor unions reported spending $400 million in support of Democratic candidates in the 2008 election. He expects similar spending by labor groups in 2012. Of his organization’s $120 million goal, Mr. Law said: “We are going to need every penny of it to have a chance of keeping up with the much larger dollars that we expect to be poured in by the left.”

IN PICTURES: Will these Republicans run in 2012?

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How a Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann fight would shape GOP race (Exclusive to Yahoo! News)

Now that former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman has announced his candidacy for the GOP presidential nomination, the biggest question remaining is whether Texas Gov. Rick Perry will jump into the race.

If former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin opted in, watching her and Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota tangle would be worth the price of admission. That bout is unlikely to materialize, but a Perry-Bachmann fight for supremacy among social conservatives and tea party Republicans would also be entertaining. Both have the potential to raise a lot of money, motivate armies of passionate conservatives, and run no-holds-barred campaigns aimed at the two-thirds of Republicans who prefer their politics unvarnished and undiluted. Even though Bachmann and Perry would be going after the same market, that hard-core space in the GOP is large enough to prolong the fight for a while.

The potential for Perry and Bachmann to suck all the conservative oxygen out of the campaign is great, and their rivals for the right side of the GOP bracket, such as businessman Herman Cain and former Sen. Rick Santorum, will have to fight for attention. Just as the battle between Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama in 2008 left their nomination rivals gasping for air and attention, a Bachmann-Perry duel could have the same effect in the more conservative and larger of the two GOP tournament brackets. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas and former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson will have their own competition for the narrow but vocal libertarian faction of the party, and former Speaker Newt Gingrich will have to deal with the perception that he is running against himself—and losing.

That leaves former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, and Huntsman battling over the smaller, less conservative bracket. Each is hoping that he can emerge as the non-fire-breathing conservative contender in the GOP nomination championship game. Each believes that the electability argument will work in his favor, that Republican voters will choose him as the one who can play the best game against President Obama.

Electability has not been the strongest argument for a candidate seeking a party's presidential nomination, but Republicans' antipathy toward Obama is so great that such a platform might work. A June 8-11 Gallup/USA Today poll found that among 851 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, 50 percent said they preferred the type of candidate who would have the best chance of beating Obama; 44 percent would choose a candidate they agreed with on most issues. While the gap between the two options was not statistically significant, it was conservatives who preferred the more-electable candidate by 10 points, 52 percent to 42 percent; moderates and liberals preferred a nominee they agreed with by 8 points, 51 percent to 43 percent.

The obvious danger for Bachmann and Perry is that they might move too far to the right in trying to outflank each other. In that case, whoever wins the one-on-one game could realize only a Pyrrhic victory—unable to make a convincing case that he or she could attract enough moderate voters to defeat Obama. So the question for Bachmann and Perry may be less about how conservative they are and more about where they will end up after fighting it out among themselves.

All of this is purely theoretical, of course. During the 2008 election, one could have easily argued that the marathon battle between Clinton and Obama had the potential to force the victor too far to the left to win a general election. That obviously didn't happen. Perhaps that is because their fight wasn't about who was more liberal. Instead, it was more of a generational clash. Each projected a different vision, with the older Clinton representing a more conventional image and the younger Obama conveying a more inspirational style.

One way of thinking about the fight for the GOP nomination is that, in the end, Republican voters will have a roster of players from which to choose. They can pick an unadulterated conservative or someone who is more pragmatic and less hard-edged. It's an ideological distinction but also very stylistic. One type of Republican is like the golf fan behind the rope at the U.S. Open, politely clapping after a good shot. The other is like a Philadelphia Flyers hockey fan, screaming with eyeball veins on the verge of popping.

Although many Republicans remain less than enthusiastic about the field of candidates, it's still very early. As the campaign engages, the competition more fully develops, and the perceived value of the nomination rises, we might see the roughest, bare-knuckle fight for the GOP nomination in memory

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Illegal Immigration Will See No Action with White House Up for Grabs (ContributorNetwork)

COMMENTARY | Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) set off a firestorm last week with his comments connecting the devastating Arizona wildfires to illegal immigration. According to the Huffington Post, McCain, the 2008 Republican nominee for president, said, "There is substantial evidence that some of these fires are caused by people who have crossed our border illegally." In light of McCain's comments, illegal immigration is once again dominating national headlines.

A Frustrated Electorate

A Pew Hispanic Center study found in 2010 there were 11.2 million illegal immigrants living in the United States. Poll after poll shows an anxiety-ridden nation frustrated by the government's inability to stop the influx of illegal crossings from Mexico. A Rasmussen poll indicates that only 30 percent of Americans believe the border is secure, while 64 percent say it is not. An overwhelming 84 percent of Americans are concerned that illegal immigrants could be an unfair burden on schools, hospitals and government services, according to Gallup. These poll numbers have forced politicians at the state and federal level to address illegal immigration, but a solution has proved elusive.

Legislative Action or Inaction?

Thus far in 2011, state legislatures have introduced 52 bills dealing with illegal immigration. Most of these bills replicate elements of Arizona's controversial SB 1070, which gave law enforcement officers broad powers in deciphering the immigration status of an individual.

Utah's HB497, Georgia's HB87 and Indiana's HB56 all hold provisions allowing law enforcement to check perpetrators' immigration status during an arrest, although the conditions in each state vary. However, states have tried to learn from what happened in Arizona. For example, Utah passed three immigration laws and established a guest worker program that would allow illegal immigrants to work, with one stipulation being that they learn English. Small concessions such as these have done little to quiet critics who take issue with the intrusiveness of the laws.

On the federal level, President Obama has made the DREAM Act the focal point of his immigration reform. The act died last year in the Senate thanks to a Republican filibuster. Under the DREAM Act, "qualifying undocumented youth would be eligible for a six year long conditional path to citizenship that requires completion of a college degree or two years of military service."

At all levels, immigration legislation has run into problems. State laws are continually challenged in courts for violating civil liberties. At the federal level, the DREAM Act has yet to become law despite its reintroduction in May of this year.

Ratings Galore

The media have cashed in on illegal immigration by fueling partisanship. Illegal immigration provides the perfect backdrop for screaming pundits on the left and right. The media have the keen ability to simplify complicated issues into basic arguments. Republicans are portrayed as nativists who desire the expulsion of illegal immigrants because they drain the country's resources and take jobs. Democrats want to continue entitlement programs for illegal immigrants while regular Americans struggle to find work.

For proof, look to Ann Coulter, who has made a living off of chastising liberals. According to the Los Angeles Times, Coulter said, "Then, the Democrats latched on to blacks as another mob to be led - just like women, gays, Hispanics, illegal immigrants, government workers, etc., etc." Representing the left is Keith Olbermann, who once called immigration laws "xenophobic" on one of his "Worst Person in the World" segments, according to the Washington Post. The media continue to paint both sides as "fringe" elements incapable of coming to an agreement.

Playing Both Sides

Sen. McCain's comments simply reminded a country in the economic wilderness that illegal immigration is still an issue. Despite all the political wheeling and dealing, the nation lacks a comprehensive plan for illegal immigration. According to the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials, Latinos now make up 16.3 percent of America's total population. Pew Hispanic Center points out that in 2008, Hispanics represented 9 percent of the vote. With so much influence, both parties are hesitant to alienate Hispanics. But they also need to create the illusion immigration reform is on the horizon. In reality, heated rhetoric pertaining to illegal immigration will continue yet little will be done on the legislative front. A significant bloc of voters could be lost if either party makes the wrong move before the 2012 elections. Neither party will be moving on illegal immigration with the White House in play.

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Illinois governor signs election law favoring Democrats (Reuters)

CHICAGO (Reuters) – Illinois Democratic Governor Pat Quinn signed into law on Friday a new congressional district map that could reverse gains Republicans made in the state in 2010 midterm elections.

Democrats were able to leverage their control of the General Assembly and a Democratic governor to approve a new election map for 2012 that analysts said could help Democrats win at least three more congressional seats in the state.

The effects of the law, which Republicans or third-party interest groups may challenge in court, would be to pit strong Republicans against each other, extend Chicago Democratic incumbent districts into suburban Republican districts, and incorporate new voter blocs into Republican strongholds.

Quinn denied that the redistricting was a partisan ploy by Democrats.

"This map is fair, maintains competitiveness within congressional districts, and protects the voting rights of minority communities," Quinn said.

Illinois Republican Party Chairman Pat Brady differed.

"This bill is a crass, partisan political move to silence the voices of Illinoisans, who last November made it very clear that they wanted to fire Nancy Pelosi by electing a majority Republican Congressional Delegation from the home state of President Obama," Brady said.

The Illinois Republican Party's lawyers will review the maps to see if any state or federal laws have been broken, said Jonathan Blessing, a party spokesman.

In the 2010 midterm elections, Republicans picked up 60 House seats nationally, knocking Democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi from power and putting Republicans in charge of House committees. It was the biggest shift in power in the House since Democrats gained 75 House seats in 1948.

But Democratic analysts believe Illinois and California, where Democrats are still in power at the state level, are their best chances to gain back seats in 2012 through redistricting.

Republicans in power in most of the Midwest and South are drawing maps in those states seeking to protect new Republican members of Congress elected in 2010.

In Illinois, Republicans picked up four seats in 2010 to hold an overall edge of 11 to 8 in the state's congressional delegation. They also kept control of the wealthy North Shore suburban Chicago district vacated by Republican Mark Kirk's successful Senate bid.

Illinois will lose one of its 19 congressional seats due to slow population growth relative to other states, according to the federal census.

Andy Shaw, President of the Better Government Association, said the Illinois map was partisan politics as usual.

"Most of Quinn's adult life was spent in opposition to this blatant political manipulation of the system," Shaw told Reuters. "His willingness to sign the bill without any changes is another indication that he has had to abandon many of his progressive principles to be able to deal with the political realities of Springfield (the state capital)," he said.

(Editing by Greg McCune)

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GOP-leaning group launches ads criticizing Obama (AP)

NEW YORK – A Republican-leaning independent fundraising group announced Friday it would launch a $20 million television campaign criticizing President Barack Obama's handling of the economy.

The ads, produced and financed by Crossroads GPS, will begin running Monday in 10 states, many of which are presidential battlegrounds.

Spokesman Jonathan Collegio said the group would spend $5 million initially on cable television nationwide and on broadcast TV in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, New Mexico, Nevada and Virginia. Crossroads will spend a total of $20 million on the campaign over two months, Collegio said.

The 30-second ad illustrates how unemployment, the national debt and gas prices have all gone up since Obama took office in January 2009. It also suggests the $850 billion federal stimulus plan failed, with Obama acknowledging there weren't as many "shovel ready" infrastructure projects to fund with stimulus dollars as the administration had originally hoped.

"It's time to take away Obama's blank check," the announcer says.

The campaign represents Crossroads' first major national effort to shape the political debate in Washington. Crossroads GPS is an affiliate of American Crossroads, a Republican-leaning group with ties to Karl Rove, President George W. Bush's former top political adviser. Together, the groups spent more than $38 million to defeat Democrats in the 2010 midterm elections.

In a statement, Crossroads GPS president Steven Law said, "President Obama may have inherited a recession, but his policies have made things worse for everyday Americans by running up the debt and causing economic uncertainty."

The ad airs as Republican and Democratic congressional leaders are negotiating an increase in the nation's $14.3 trillion debt ceiling.

Obama plans to get involved in the negotiations next week as Democrats warn of catastrophic economic consequences if the ceiling is not increased. Republicans leaders say they will not agree to any debt ceiling increase unless it's paired with deep spending cuts.

American Crossroads was one of many groups formed to help Republicans after the Supreme Court eased restrictions on corporate spending in political campaigns in early 2010. Crossroads GPS, organized as a nonprofit group, is not required to disclose its donors.

Obama has criticized the Supreme Court ruling and the kind of unregulated, undisclosed spending it allowed. But Democrats lost control of the House and lost several Senate seats in 2010, in part because of the spending imbalance between Republican and Democratic leaning groups.

Several new Democratic groups have formed this year hoping to go compete with Crossroads and other conservative groups. One of those is Priorities USA, founded by former Obama White House aides Sean Sweeney and Bill Burton.

In a statement, Burton blamed Rove and other Republicans for the country's economic mess and said the Crossroads ad campaign showed they don't want to help fix it.

"Whether it's by running millions of dollars in negative ads about the economy or by walking away from critical economic talks in Congress, Washington Republicans are demonstrating an unwavering commitment to stopping any real progress on the economy," Burton said.

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Whatever you do, don’t call Gary Johnson a ‘job creator’ (The Ticket)

It's not every day a politician makes a point to correct a news outlet that dubs him a master job creator.

When National Review magazine called GOP presidential candidate Gary Johnson "the best job creator of them all," the former New Mexico governor blasted the story out to supporters--but not in the way most campaigns would. Instead of basking in the credit, Johnson took issue with it: As governor, he insisted, he didn't create one job.

"Contrary to the news, I didn't create a single job," Johnson said in a statement. "Don't get me wrong. We are proud of this distinction. We had a 11.6 percent job growth that occurred during our two terms in office. But the headlines that accompanied that report—referring to governors, including me, as 'job creators'--were just wrong. The fact is, I can unequivocally say that I did not create a single job while I was governor."

For a libertarian-leaning GOP candidate like Johnson, renouncing credit for job creation is a key point of pride, and the suggestion that he'd been busy "creating jobs" as a public official a badge of shame, not honor. The best jobs, conservatives and libertarians contend, are the ones created by the private sector. The government shouldn't be in the business of "creating" jobs, Johnson argues, but rather should create a business-friendly climate permitting private employers to add new jobs.

In his own words:

In New Mexico, we focused like a laser on creating an environment in which real employers and job creators could produce job growth.

My priority was to get government out of the way, keep it out of the way, and allow hard-working New Mexicans, entrepreneurs and businesses to fulfill their potential. That's how government can encourage job growth, and that's what government needs to do today.

Of course, the problem for Johnson is that such semantic clarifications may not resonate in an age of three-second television sound bites and quick-hit blog posts.

While Johnson is being uncharacteristically honest for a national politician, his message could easily be lost on some--and opponents will no doubt misconstrue his words if he becomes a threat. No political operative will lose a moment of sleep over stripping those seven words--"I did not create a single job"--out of context for a TV spot.

Johnson, however, is betting that voters know better. With the rise of the tea party in reaction to President Obama's ambitious governing vision over the past two years, politicians do not boast (as much) about what they have done, so much as about what they have not done. For the time being, doing "nothing" is the new claim to legitimacy in the GOP primary field.

So perhaps Johnson's decision to push back against the job-creation claim means that he thinks he can get deeper traction among small-government conservatives--a critical primary constituency--by stressing his complete faith in the private sector. One thing's clear, at any rate: with his early approval numbers among GOP voters still in the single digits, the former governor can afford to take a risk .

(Johnson photo: Richard Shiro/AP)

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Romney criticizes Obama economic policies in Utah (AP)

SALT LAKE CITY – Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney criticized President Barack Obama's economic policies Friday at campaign stops in his one-time home state of Utah.

"Gasoline is too expensive, food's too expensive, there's too many people out of work, and there's nothing to be proud of in Barack Obama's economic policies," Romney said from the back of a bright red pickup outside a popular Salt Lake City drive-in restaurant. "My policies will get Americans back to work and let America lead the world as it has in the past."

Romney's stop at the locally owned Hires Big H was his first public appearance in heavily Republican Utah since he announced his bid for the nomination. The event drew about 200 supporters and was bookended by a pair of private fundraisers, including a $1,000-a-plate luncheon at a private home in Orem and a $2,500 per-person reception at a downtown Salt Lake City.

It wasn't clear Friday how much money Romney had raised during his swing through the state.

This is Romney's second bid for the GOP nomination. He's considered the front-runner in a primary field that includes former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachman and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman.

Romney said that by the end of his first term, Obama will have racked up more debt than all previous U.S. presidents combined — a remark that drew loud booing from the crowd.

"He has spent too much money, he has borrowed too much money ... he's put in place the greatest takeover of states' rights with his Obamacare, which we're gonna repeal and reverse," Romney said with his wife of 42 years, Ann, by his side.

Merle and Robert Fullmer, republicans from Midvale, waited about an hour in the hot sun to see the candidate. They said they think Romney, who like the couple is a member of the Utah-based Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, can tackle the nation's economic and foreign policy problems.

"He seems to have integrity and he seems to have the right experience at this particular time in politics," said Robert Fullmer, 78.

A registered Democrat, Anne Ryan, of Portland, Ore., interrupted her Utah visit to bring her husband and two teenage sons to the rally.

"I am a Mitt fan. I've followed his campaign for a long time ... and also this is just such an experience for my son to come see a campaign event," said the 43-year-old, who is also a Mormon.

Ryan, a former computer systems engineer, said it was Romney's performances as Massachusetts' governor and head of the 2002 Olympic Winter Games in Salt Lake City that drew her interest and support.

After the rally, Romney munched on a cheeseburger and talked with local small-business owners and state government leaders about their concerns, including taxes, health insurance costs, entitlement programs and energy policy.

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Huntsman: Issues not religion will decide GOP race (AP)

RENO, Nev. – Former Utah Republican Gov. Jon Huntsman said Friday that he doesn't believe his Mormon faith will be an issue in his bid for the White House, adding that he's running for president — not to be the nation's spiritual "guru."

Huntsman spoke to reporters in Nevada during an hour-long campaign stop at the Reno Livestock Events Center, where the Reno Rodeo was about to begin.

Three days after formally announcing his candidacy, the former ambassador to China said his list of priority states includes the early caucus swing state of Nevada, where Republicans sided with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in 2008.

Romney also is Mormon. So is Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., who said earlier this week he'd pick Huntsman over Romney if he had to. Polls show many voters have reservations about electing a Mormon president.

But Huntsman said Friday that he didn't believe religion would be a concern for voters choosing the 2012 Republican presidential nominee.

"Nor should it be," he said. "I'm not running for guru here."

A candidate's track record, as well as "who has a world view that will get us where this country needs to be" will be much more important, he said.

Huntsman met earlier Friday with Washoe County GOP leaders and had lunch with Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval, Reno Mayor Bob Cashell — a Republican who voted for Reid last election — and a number of local business officials.

Huntsman said contrary to conventional wisdom, he doesn't believe Romney is the heavy favorite to win the Nevada caucus.

"Yes, some might have a head start in terms of fundraising and name recognition," he said. "But given the nature of the media market and our ability to network with social media tools, you can overcome any gap like that over time."

Nevada's presidential caucuses are set for Feb. 18, after Iowa and New Hampshire get their turns and before South Carolina picks its favorite candidate.

In announcing his candidacy Tuesday in Salt Lake City, Huntsman stressed his record as governor of Utah, where he won praise from conservative groups for cutting taxes and recruiting new business to the state. He served as governor from 2005 to early 2009, when Obama offered him the China post. He resigned that position in April.

During a conference call with reporters on Tuesday, Democratic leaders in Utah and Nevada criticized what they said was Huntsman's apparent move to the right on issues such as taxes, health care and the environment to court conservatives GOPs in the primary after developing a reputation as more of a moderate.

"We were looking forward to a campaign of ideas and having a moderate Republican in the race," Utah Democratic Party chairman Wayne Holland said. "Instead we've seen pandering that is disappointing."

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Poll: If Debt Ceiling Compromise Not Reached -- Blame Republicans (ContributorNetwork)

COMMENTARY | Political strategy is such that tactics are always used to advance the overall agenda or strategy of the party. When tactics or a particular tactic is not working, then said tactic (or tactics) is altered or ditched in favor of a more viable tactic. Since a political party's primary overall strategy is to stay in power in order to promote their own -- as opposed to an opponent's -- agenda, the altering of tactics is often done by engaging in increased compromise, diplomacy, and leverage, so as not to lose the particular goal of that tactic altogether. Such an alteration in tactics for Republicans concerning the debt ceiling may be in order, especially since a recent Pew Research Poll notes that most would blame Republicans if the debt ceiling were allowed to remain static and the federal government was forced to shut down.

According to the poll, 42 percent of Americans would blame the Republican Party if a compromise is not reached on the debt ceiling impasse by August 2, the date that Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has said is the absolute latest he can juggle marginal and postpone-able programs in order to keep the country running without borrowing money to do so. After August 2, the federal government will go into shutdown mode, with all nonessential programs closing down for lack of funding. Another 33 percent of the poll respondents say they would blame President Obama and the Democratic Party; 13 percent said that they would blame neither or both; and 11 percent said they did not know.

With independents in a statistical tie (36 percent to 34 percent would blame Republicans over Democrats), it is even more telling is that more Republicans would blame their own party if a compromise isn't reached. Members of the GOP would blame Democrats more (58 percent) but 22 percent would blame the members of their own party. The Democrats are more lopsided, with 72 percent of their number blaming Republicans while only 15 percent would blame Democrats.

Setting aside who would actually be to blame or if both parties should share responsibility should a compromise not be reached and the government be forced to shut down in August, the perception of who is to blame could have devastating consequences. It did in 1996 when a Republican Congress refused to raise the debt ceiling, forcing the government to shut down for the second time within a few months. The subsequent public backlash was far fewer Republicans holding public office after the Mid-Term elections. And it could happen again.

Since Republicans have recently embraced fiscal federal responsibility and national debt management, they seem to have taken a increasingly hard line on borrowing for government expenditures, not to mention the House of Representatives' stance as soon as Republicans took over in January 2011 to not allow legislation that costs taxpayers to not already have a built-in payment system included in the legislation. However, the debt ceiling is a limit set in place by Congress several decades ago that was hoped would curb government spending. It requires that Congress agree to raise the acquired debt limit in order for the federal government to borrow money in which to operate beyond its revenue intake.

Simply put: Republicans could find themselves blamed again. Talks are sluggish to stalled in Washington at present, according to NPR. House Minority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) walked away from negotiations Thursday, reportedly over talks of raising taxes (actually allowing tax breaks to expire) which Republicans feel is a deal breaker.

But shouldering the blame for a government shutdown just might cost Republicans control of Congress in 2012 if the backlash of public displeasure is strong enough. Then the recently embraced agenda of federal spending responsibility might be compromised as well. Besides, where is the responsibility in allowing loans to be defaulted on, not to mention allowing the all too possible damage to the strength of the dollar, which could find itself easily replaced as the world's most used reserve currency?

If the overall strategy of the Republican Party is to stay in power in order to enact their agenda, given the current public mood, some form of compromise on the debt ceiling needs to be considered. Alteration of tactics are often crucial in allowing the overall strategy to remain in play. Choosing a hard line could very well be costly for the Republicans, not to mention the entire nation with regard to its credit status and its financial obligations.

As more Americans become educated as to the what the debt ceiling is, the Republicans might find themselves in an even worse position. Thus far, most of the Republican support has been driven by fear of the rising national debt and equating not raising the debt ceiling to the U. S. not incurring more debt -- which is not the way either entity actually works. The national debt rises daily simply on the accumulation of interest on the loans already taken. The debt ceiling is just a legal limit the government imposed upon itself to curb government spending through profligate borrowing. It also imposes the added regulation that, without Congressional approval, more money cannot be borrowed. And since the government operates on borrowed money (because it spends more than it takes in via revenue sources -- where all those tax breaks and loopholes come back to haunt), Congressional approval of raising the debt ceiling is a must for the government to maintain its normal day-to-day operations.

Republicans at present are attempting to leverage a possible raising of the debt ceiling against fiscal spending cuts as well as future spending cuts and program defundings. Democrats have grudgingly allowed a few possible budgetary spending cuts but also want to reinstate tax breaks and eliminate tax loopholes that have decreased revenue over the past decade. The parties are at virtual impasse.

And the clock is winding down to a government shutdown. In the end, both sides will most likely give a little in order to reach compromise. However, if public sentiment continues to poll against the GOP as to blameworthiness, the legislators might want to begin looking into a little tactical correction.

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Texas Governor Perry stokes White House run talk (AFP)

NEW ORLEANS (AFP) – Sounding every bit like a candidate for the White House, Republican Texas Governor Rick Perry thrilled party activists here Saturday as he ripped President Barack Obama's "arrogance and audacity."

Perry did not announce a presidential bid at the Republican Leadership Conference, but enthusiastically heaped rhetorical fuel on the flames of speculation that he will join the crowded field of Republican candidates.

"I stand before you today a disciplined, conservative Texan, a committed Republican and a proud American, united with you in the desire to restore our nation and revive the American dream," the governor told his cheering audience.

Perry cast his conservative faith in free markets, low taxes, and limited regulation as the antidote to what he portrayed as Obama's excessive belief in government solutions at a time of historically high unemployment.

"That mix of arrogance and audacity that guides the Obama administration is an affront to every freedom-loving American and a threat to every private sector job," he thundered to a cheering, rapturous crowd in a hotel ballroom.

Perry, who succeeded George W. Bush as governor of Texas, delighted the crowd by denouncing abortion rights and assailing Obama's landmark health law and bailouts of big banks in the wake of the 2008 economic meltdown.

And he blasted the president's handling of the economy, which he contrasted to Texas's first-in-the-nation job growth, and the swollen US national debt, which he compared to his state's balanced books.

"Americans voted for hope and got nothing but greater economic misery," he said, stressing "November 2012 is not very far away and we've got to be ready to elect Republican leaders up and down that ballot."

"Let's stop this American downward spiral!"

Polls show Perry far behind the Republican presidential frontrunner, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, and some Republicans in Washington express skepticism that the Texan could get a campaign in gear quickly enough.

But a recent public opinion survey found Republicans split evenly at 45 percent on whether or not they are happy with their current White House options.

"I'm hoping that Rick Perry makes a bid," said Regina Wilson, a Louisiana resident. "He can be strong when he needs to be strong, I think he has good thoughts, and I think he has the strength we need."

"I think recently he's done a real good job with the state of Texas," said Ditch, 73.

"I was enthused about him, about the potential for him jumping in because I know he's a good friend of the governor's," referring to former Alaska governor Sarah Palin.

"So if she thinks he's a good guy, I think he's a good guy," said Ditch. "If she doesn't run."

Palin, who has not said whether she will run, was on the straw poll ballot that delegates were to use to indicate their preference for the best candidate to take on Obama.

Critics of Perry point out that his state has high rates of poverty, and he would likely face fire over telling an anti-tax "Tea Party" rally in April 2009 that Texas might be better off seceding from United States.

"We've got a great union. There's absolutely no reason to dissolve it," he said. "But if Washington continues to thumb their nose at the American people, you know, who knows what might come out of that."

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GOP's Pawlenty waits for payoff from 2012 grind (AP)

By BRIAN BAKST and HOLLY RAMER, Associated Press Brian Bakst And Holly Ramer, Associated Press – Sun Jun 19, 8:58 am ET

STRATHAM, N.H. – Dusk had settled in and mosquitoes had swarmed by the time Tim Pawlenty finished mingling with voters at a backyard reception. It was well after the GOP presidential candidate had promoted himself as an accomplished leader and took questions from the crowd.

"I need your help," the former Minnesota governor said at the recent gathering, appealing to Republicans in the state holding the first GOP presidential primary in 2012. "I want to make sure we have a chance to earn your support in these coming weeks and months."

An official candidate for less than a month, Pawlenty nonetheless has spent several years introducing himself to Republicans in backyards, living rooms and pizza parlors in New Hampshire and Iowa.

He's methodically built a campaign operation staffed with presidential campaign veterans. He's been workmanlike in courting the GOP establishment, the tea party and evangelicals who are an important part of the party base. It's a traditional labor-intensive strategy that his team hopes will turn the relatively obscure Midwesterner into the GOP presidential nominee.

"In fine Iowa fashion, he's taking a `Field of Dreams' approach," said Robert Haus, a veteran Republican strategist. He's watched Pawlenty's "grind it out" approach to constructing a campaign and wooing fickle Republicans in the first states to hold nominating contests. "If you build it, they will come," Haus said.

So far, it's an open question what Pawlenty's one-voter-at-a-time approach has earned him.

In polls nationally and in early nominating states, he trails better-known candidates who haven't put in nearly the hours Pawlenty has in New Hampshire and Iowa. He acknowledges that he will raise less money than front-runner Mitt Romney and perhaps others when fundraising reports are released next month.

His rocky performance during a GOP debate in New Hampshire last Monday probably didn't help sway people who haven't decided which candidate to back. He was widely panned for shirking when given many chances to attack Romney on stage. A day earlier during a TV interview, he had criticized Romney for signing a health care measure as governor in Massachusetts that Obama then used as a model for the nationwide legislation.

By Thursday, Pawlenty was turning up the heat on Romney again in a TV interview and on Twitter, an unmistakable damage control effort.

Seven months before primary voting begins, Pawlenty and his team show no outward signs of worry about the payoff for all his hard work.

He dismisses early gauges of his popularity as unreliable given his newness to the national scene and the large number of undecided Republicans.

"This is a race not about the polls of this moment," he says.

Advisers say Pawlenty is building for the long haul and is content on forming one-on-one connections with voters in pivotal states.

"Our focus has not been trying to swing for the fences, but to not make unforced errors and hit steady singles," said senior Pawlenty adviser Phil Musser, a consultant to Romney in 2008. "The decision points are in the ninth inning, not the first."

At least at the Stratham event, Pawlenty's groundwork seemed to pay some dividends.

"He's sincere," said Beverly Barney, a Republican from Exeter who was leaning toward Romney when she arrived to the event but was gravitating toward supporting Pawlenty by the time she had left.

She spent the time in between chatting with Pawlenty, who clasped her hand as they spoke. Just six months ago, she didn't recognize Pawlenty when a Christmas card from his family landed in her mailbox. Now, after meeting him, she may vote for him.

Bedford business owner David Soutter came away impressed, too, though he wasn't ready to commit.

"He's good at eye contact and delivering the message. I think he'll catch on," Soutter said, adding that Pawlenty's networking strategy should serve him. "New Hampshire's not a state that goes for flash."

That may be good for Pawlenty, who has been dogged by a pizazz-free image.

His speeches, for instance, are rarely as memorable as those by rivals such as businessman Herman Cain and U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota. Nor is he strongly identified with any one faction within the GOP, such as the tea party or socially conservative voters.

But Pawlenty is betting that enough Republicans will view him as an acceptable, if not ideal, candidate to take on Obama in next year's election. The two-term governor is introducing himself as a budget fixer who held down state taxes and made inroads on socially conservative policies in a place with a Democratic tradition.

In the leadoff caucus state of Iowa, Republicans Jane and Tim Niess, who own a bed and breakfast in Des Moines, say Pawlenty has intrigued them since they first saw him speak at an agriculture forum in 2004. They find his record attractive and appreciate the time he's invested in Iowa. They've seen him multiple times.

Even so, they haven't committed to him yet.

"We'd like our candidate to be able to excite people, too, and get them excited about staying engaged," she said. "That remains to be seen if he can get people excited and passionate about getting him elected."

He did just that as a Minnesota legislator and governor, often humbling foes with shrewd maneuvers and rhetorical jabs.

It's a side some observers wonder if he's suppressing as a presidential candidate.

"The Tim Pawlenty of old was perhaps more likely to use the acid-tipped epithet or characterization of a policy or person," said Chris Georgacas, a political ally since the 1980s and a top adviser in his first gubernatorial campaign. "It seems like he's almost trying to play it safe a little too much."

David Baird, a Republican from Adel, Iowa, doesn't mind.

He said he's backing Pawlenty because of his compelling life story and consistent resistance to higher taxes and spending in Minnesota, calling him "somebody who will have a broad appeal to people when they get to know him. Iowans are going to appreciate that he's an honest, genuine individual. He's not going to blow smoke."

___

Bakst reported from Des Moines, Iowa.

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Ron Paul wins 2012 Republican straw poll in New Orleans (Reuters)

NEW ORLEANS (Reuters) – Representative Ron Paul easily won a Republican Leadership Conference straw poll of the party's 2012 presidential contenders on Saturday, with former U.S. envoy to China Jon Huntsman finishing second.

Paul, who brought busloads of supporters to the conference, won with 612 votes in the nonbinding preference poll of nearly 2,000 delegates from 38 states who attended the gathering.

Huntsman finished second with 382 votes, Representative Michele Bachmann was third with 191 votes and businessman Herman Cain was fourth with 104 votes.

Huntsman, a former Utah governor, is set announce his bid for the White House on Tuesday.

No other candidate broke triple digits. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who leads national opinion polls in the 2012 Republican race for the nomination to challenge President Barack Obama, was fifth with 74 votes.

"This win is just the latest indicator of how the majority of American opinion is turning in Ron Paul's direction," said Jesse Benton, his campaign chairman.

Paul, Bachmann and Cain addressed the New Orleans conference on Friday. Huntsman was scheduled to speak but canceled because of illness. Romney and Tim Pawlenty, the former Minnesota governor who earned 18 votes, skipped the event.

Former House of Representatives Speaker Newt Gingrich, who spoke on Thursday, had 69 votes. Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, who says she is considering becoming a candidate, had 41 votes. She also did not appear at the conference.

Former Senator Rick Santorum, who also spoke on Friday, had 30 votes.

Romney narrowly won the straw poll at the annual conference last year over Paul, but the survey has not been a reliable predictor of success. Bill Frist, who was Senate Republican leader at the time, won in 2006 and failed to ever get his campaign off the ground.

Texas Governor George W. Bush won in 1998, two years before he captured the White House.

(Editing by Xavier Briand)

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Texas Gov. Rick Perry Thrills Republican Audience in New Orleans (ContributorNetwork)

ANALYSIS | Texas Governor Rick Perry threw some more fuel on the fires of speculation of a run for the presidency in a stem winder of a speech at the Republican Leadership Conference in New Orleans that had the audience chanting, "Run, Rick, run!" according to National Journal.

The twenty minutes address was seen as a model for a campaign stump speech should Perry decide to run. Perry attacked the Obama administration for its mishandling the economy and running up $1 trillion plus deficits, allocated a little bit of scorn for some Republicans for what he saw as going wobbly on social issues, and considerable boasting of his record as governor of Texas. There were the obligatory nods to President Reagan and the 10th Amendment, which limits the power of the federal government in favor of the states.

The enthusiastic response at the New Orleans conference to Perry's red meat speech suggests that there is still a hunger among the Republican electorate for a candidate that will show passion and thus stir the same among the voters. Perry seems to fit that role, at least as indicated from the reaction from the 2,000 person audience of his speech.

Of course there are still hurdles between Perry and getting the Republican nomination, not to speak of sending President Obama packing from the White House.

First, he has to want to do it. A run for the presidency, if it is to be successful, must occupy a candidate's entire being, will, and desire. Perry has to decide if he is ready for that commitment.

Next, Perry has to win the contest among conservative candidates for the honor of the final showdown between that winner and current front runner Mitt Romney. Rep. Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain are already vying for that position. Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin may also get into the race.

Then, of course, Perry has to beat Romney. The contest will be a classic Republic clash between an establishment, moderate candidate and an outsider, conservative.

Finally, Perry has to beat President Obama.

Perry's opponents are already casting about for an attack narrative to try to blunt a possible Perry run for the presidency. Some seem to have hit upon the theme of "Perry is a more macho version of the last president from Texas." "More extreme" was also a phase that was used.

Considering that one of the most popular images on the Internet is a poster of former President Bush with the caption "Miss Me Yet?" this is an attack strategy that might backfire. A fantasy match up poll taken late last year actually had former President Bush beating President Obama in a hypothetical race.

If the Democrats are going to call Perry the second coming of Bush, but more so, that might turn out to be more of a feature than a bug.

Texas resident Mark Whittington writes about state issues for the Yahoo! Contributor Network.

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DeMint has demands for 2012 contenders (Daily Caller)

The presidential primary endorsement of Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) will be a coveted one among the contenders for the GOP nomination. But it may not be so easy to get.

During his speech Friday at the Republican Leadership Conference, DeMint announced support for the “Cut, Cap, and Balance” Pledge, designed by several prominent conservative advocacy organizations. Signers of the pledge vow to oppose any attempt to raise the debt limit unless the agreement is paired with substantial spending cuts, spending caps, and a balanced budget amendment.

DeMint also announced that any candidate who wants his endorsement will have to sign the pledge. “I’m telling every presidential candidate: if your name isn’t on this list, don’t come see me.”

Support from DeMint will be key. South Carolina is an important primary state, and DeMint has become a nationally recognized leader in the conservative movement.

The Hill is calling the signing requirement a “litmus test” for conservative candidates.

The pledge could pose a problem for frontrunner Mitt Romney, who sidestepped a question on the debt ceiling at the first Republican primary debate, hosted by CNN Monday night. Asked whether he would raise it, Romney would only say, “I believe we will not raise the debt ceiling unless the president is finally, finally willing to be a leader on the issue the American people care about.”

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Ron Paul Wins Republican Straw Poll, but Rick Perry Inspires (ContributorNetwork)

The Republican Leadership Conference held a Republican presidential straw poll in New Orleans June 18 and Texas Rep. Ron Paul scored 40 percent of the vote. Jon Huntsman finished second and up and coming presidential contender Michelle Bachmann took third. Another popular candidate, who is also not popular with the Republican Party hierarchy, Herman Cain, finished fourth.

The results of the straw poll, posted on the Republican Leadership Conference website, showed little interest in Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich. Romney garnered 74 votes to Paul's 612, after not showing up for the conference and Gingrich gathered only 69 votes after he appeared in New Orleans .

Reading the results, it shows many Republicans are not happy with their choices and their straw poll vote was a message to the other contenders in the race. Republicans are looking for candidates who will make it a clear choice for voters heading to the poll. Ironically Romney won this straw poll last year.

Huntsman is receiving his first attention via this conference but did not attend and now he is already in the sights of the Los Angeles Times. The Times ran a story June 18, "Was Jon Huntsman campaigning while he was an ambassador?"

The story states, "Huntsman accepted invitations to deliver commencement addresses in the pivotal nominating states of New Hampshire and South Carolina. In New Hampshire, two political operatives who are now playing key roles in his soon-to-be-announced presidential bid helped arrange his visit."

Sarah Palin also suffered a setback in the straw poll, scoring only 41 votes. Sarah Palin did not attend the conference but her showing of only 41 votes is a sign she is not as popular in Republican circles as many thought. Palin's numbers also suffered because of a strong appearance by Michelle Bachmann .

Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who is not a candidate, gave the speech that received the most attention. Perry energized the crowd with a rousing, take no prisoners, speech that left no wiggle room. Perry said, "It saddens me when sometimes my fellow Republicans duck and cover in the face of pressure from the left. Our party cannot be all things to all people."

Perry refers to a theme at the convention calling for Republicans to bend on social issues to create a party considered mainstream. Perry's unwillingness to bend may have been popular but it will cause the Republicans to lose the White House in 2012.

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Issa plans hearing on scandal-ridden education regulation (Daily Caller)

Top GOP oversight official Rep. Darrell Issa of California is quietly planning a hearing on a scandal-ridden new regulation just finalized by the Education Department, according to a June 13 letter he sent to New York Democrat Rep. Edolphus Towns.

The move comes as Issa has been investigating a related Government Accountability Office (GAO) report that was plagued by errors and, according to some GAO officials, political interference from top-ranking Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin of Iowa.

It is also in response to a May 24 letter from Towns requesting a hearing. Towns’ letter walks through some of the numerous issues facing the regulation, including the role of a group of Wall Street short sellers who lobbied the Education Department hoping to profit from strict new rules on the for-profit college sector.

June 2, the Education Department finalized the regulation, which puts strict new rules on for-profit or “career” colleges. The regulations were intended to address concerns from critics the schools use high pressure sales techniques to lure unprepared students into enrolling.

(Amid scandals, Education Department finalizes regulation on for-profit schools)

Issa suggests he’s planning to focus especially on the impact of the regulation on the economy.

“As I share concerns regarding the potential impact of this regulation on jobs, my staff has been closely following this regulation. In addition, the Committee is planning to schedule a hearing in the near future on the regulation,” Issa says in a June 13 letter to Towns.

As reported by The Daily Caller, Issa has been investigating an undercover sting unit at GAO that produced an error-ridden report on for-profit colleges, including interviewing the team that produced the report, staining the agency’s normally unimpeachable reputation.

The report was crucial to providing political momentum for the regulation. But in November, GAO issued a slew of corrections; the corrected version of the report paints a less critical picture of the schools.

Issa’s investigation is focused on the undercover team itself, not the for-profit proof per se. The team is described as having a history of faulty work.

As reported by TheDC, an internal GAO evaluation about what went wrong on the for-profit report faulted pressure from far left Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin as the reason for some of the reports “most obvious inaccuracies.”

The evaluation said “congressional staff” demanded the inclusion of numerous details in the report and, facing the “extreme short time frames” given to complete it, GAO “stretched whatever we could find” to fill in a key detail.

“They wouldn’t have included those references unless they felt bullied,” one former GAO official told TheDC.

But Harkin has angrily denounced the GAO’s allegations, his staff claiming his innocence publicly in a memo and privately in phone calls to key insiders.

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Obama wants big 2012 campaign map, GOP wants small (AP)

CHICAGO – Republicans hope voters' fears about jobs and the economy will help them reclaim a handful of Mountain West and Southern states that were crucial to Barack Obama's 2008 presidential win.

Obama's campaign appears just as determined to hold those states next year and force Republicans to spend precious resources defending places they'd like to consider safe.

Every four years, political operatives fixate on the dozen or so states that always decide close presidential elections.

This time, Obama hopes to play on as big an Electoral College map as possible, and his team insists it will compete for the first time in traditionally solid Republican states like Georgia and Arizona. Republicans, conversely, want a compact map, hoping for wins in big, always-contested states such as Florida and Ohio, which were key to George W. Bush's victories in 2000 and 2004.

It takes 270 electoral votes to win the White House.

Obama won it in 2008 partly by prevailing in states such as Virginia and Indiana that had not voted for a Democratic presidential nominee in decades.

But with unemployment now at 9.1 percent, and the economic recovery slowed, many Republicans argue that Obama's chances are notably worse in those states, as well as others in the vote-rich, economically struggling Midwest. They say they can win some, if not all, of three crucial battleground states — Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania — along with some smaller states that Obama carried, including New Mexico, Nevada and Iowa. Republicans thrived in all those states in the 2010 midterm elections, and GOP strategists hope the momentum will carry into next year, thwarting Obama.

"The map is very difficult for him," said Rick Wiley, political director of the Republican National Committee.

Obama's campaign sees it differently.

"We are going to take the old map and expand it," Obama campaign manager Jim Messina said in an interview at his office in Chicago. He argues that demographic trends are moving in Democrats' direction in several states, which could help them hold Virginia and North Carolina and possibly win Georgia and Arizona.

"Changes in the composition of the electorate" make the states attractive, said David Axelrod, Obama's top political adviser.

The president carried North Carolina and Virginia in 2008 thanks largely to black voters, Latinos, college-educated workers and non-natives who are more open to Democrats than are many Southern-born whites. Those population groups are expanding in the two states, his backers say. The same is true in Georgia, a GOP-controlled state that hasn't been strongly contested in many years.

Obama insiders say he could have won Arizona in 2008 if John McCain, the state's senior senator, had not been the GOP nominee. They argue that with Arizona's Hispanic population still growing, Obama's chances are better this time because that group leans toward Democrats.

Many Republicans scoff at such talk. But they have their own problems, starting with the task of taking back most or all of the nine swing-voting states that Obama won in 2008 and that Democrat John Kerry lost in 2004: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico.

"There are a million different maps," Wiley said. But the GOP's priorities start with those nine "top tier" states.

To oust Obama, the Republicans don't need to win all nine.

If Obama keeps his grip on the Western states of Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico, and the Republican nominee wins the other six of the nine swing states, the GOP would reclaim the White House with 271 electoral votes. That's assuming other states vote the same as in 2008.

Obama's situation becomes more perilous if he loses a state that Democrats have won for several elections, although often narrowly. That might include Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin, a state that Democrats took by a whisker in 2000 and 2004. Obama handily won it in 2008.

Republican governors replaced Democrats last year in all those states, along with Iowa, New Mexico and Ohio.

In these battlegrounds with newly elected Republican governors, Wiley said, "you have that infrastructure that doesn't get dismantled, and it's a huge, huge advantage" to the 2012 GOP presidential nominee.

Not so, Democrats say.

New GOP governors such as Scott Walker in Wisconsin, John Kasich in Ohio and Rick Scott in Florida have clashed bitterly with various groups, especially unions. The result could be a fired-up Democratic base turning out heavily for Obama.

Top Democrats say it's unlikely that Obama will lose Pennsylvania, which always draws huge attention but has voted Democratic in the last five presidential elections.

Privately, those close to Obama worry more about Ohio, which has 18 electoral votes. Its unemployment rate, 8.6 percent, is slightly below the national average. But its population growth is almost flat, and it doesn't have the large numbers of unregistered minorities and young adults that the Obama campaign is targeting in other states.

No Republican has been elected president without carrying Ohio.

Of the nine targeted states that Kerry lost, Obama needs to hold only Ohio and one small state — say, Nevada or Iowa — to win re-election, assuming the other states vote the same as in 2008.

Florida, with 29 electoral votes, is even more vital.

If Obama holds no other state but Florida among the top-tier nine, he wins a second term.

Aubrey Jewett, a University of Central Florida political scientist, said the Sunshine State seems destined to play its toss-up role again.

"The economy is still not doing well here," Jewett said, "and Obama is not very popular." But Scott, the new Republican governor, "is extremely unpopular right now," he said, and that could undo the GOP presidential nominee in a razor-thin race.

Finally, several plausible map scenarios would leave the 2012 presidential nominees in a 269-269 electoral tie. That would hand the decision to the U.S. House, where Republicans expect to hold their majority even if they suffer some losses.

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