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Monday, April 30, 2012

Rubio's 'Dream Act Light' Jumbles Immigration Issue - Vermont Public Radio

Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., the son of Cuban immigrants, has urged his fellow conservatives to soften their rhetoric on illegal immigration. Above, he makes a campaign stop with Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney on Monday in Aston, Pa.

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio spent the week in the spotlight as the latest potential running mate for presumptive Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney. The Hispanic lawmaker, anointed as the party's best hope for appealing to more Latino voters, came loaded for bear — rolling out an alternative to the Democrats' Dream Act.

Rubio has released few details of his plan to address illegal immigration, and says he wants to introduce a bill in the Senate in June. But, like the Democrat-backed version defeated by Senate Republicans in 2010, the legislation would help young people brought to the U.S. as children stay in the country legally if they attend college or serve in the military. By most estimates, between 800,000 and 1.2 million people would be eligible.

The key distinction between the Rubio and Democratic plans is in how people would be legalized. The original act would put people on a path to citizenship. Rubio's plan would stop short by issuing non-immigrant visas allowing recipients to remain in the U.S. for college or military service.

Rubio's critics say his plan would create a permanent second class of people unable to obtain the full rights of citizenship. Supporters, however, say visa recipients could still apply for citizenship through the existing process, which can take a decade or longer.

In contrast, Democrats say, their plan would naturalize people as citizens far sooner.

Rubio's Evolution On The Issue

Rubio's move is a departure from the hard line on illegal immigration he took while running for the Senate in 2010, angering many Hispanic groups who had hoped he would help push Republicans toward a pro-citizenship stance.

Rubio, 40, the son of Cuban immigrants, ran as a Tea Party favorite and avowed conservative. Since then, he has softened his position, having publicly urged fellow Republicans to tone down their hostile rhetoric about illegal immigrants before weighing in with his proposal.

With his considerable political talents, and hailing from an important presidential battleground state, Rubio has emerged as his party's most prominent Latino.

Hispanics' rapid population growth will give them a pivotal role in the 2012 elections, particularly in some battleground states. As a vice presidential candidate, or perhaps in some other prominent role in the Romney campaign, Rubio could help the Republican Party siphon Hispanic votes from the Democrats.

The political crosscurrents at play are dizzying. People on all sides of the immigration debate are closely watching Rubio assume the forbidding task of carefully crafting a proposal that meets several objectives: help repair the GOP brand among Hispanics; appeal to non-Hispanic independent voters who favor a path to citizenship; and upend President Obama and the Democrats' advantage on the issue, all without angering conservatives.

Here's a sampling of the wide range of opinions about Rubio's version of the Dream Act. This story continues below the graphic.

Obama seemed to derisively allude to the Rubio plan in a recent interview with the Spanish-language network Telemundo: "This notion that somehow Republicans want to have it both ways — they want to vote against these laws and appeal to anti-immigrant sentiment ... and then they come and say, 'But we really care about these kids and we want to do something about it' — that looks like hypocrisy to me."

He's not the only presidential candidate who might feel pressure. Romney himself must consider whether to embrace Rubio's proposal and risk being lambasted again by conservatives and the Obama campaign as a flip-flopper. The last Republican presidential nominee, Arizona Sen. John McCain, lost to Barack Obama in part because he was unable to energize conservatives, who hadn't forgiven him for the McCain-Kennedy immigration bill, which would have set a path to citizenship.

So far, reactions to the Rubio proposal have been mixed, even unexpected. For instance, some immigrant advocates who usually side with the Democrats on the issue have enthusiastically gotten behind Rubio, even though his plan appears to fall short of the original Dream Act. Their decision was made easier by their frustrations over Obama's failure to get the original act through Congress, as well as the record number of deportations processed by his administration.


View the original article here

The Republican Party's Catholic cadre. . .coming soon - Washington Post (blog)

???initialComments:true! pubdate:04/26/2012 14:45 EDT! commentPeriod:14! commentEndDate:5/10/12 2:45 EDT! currentDate:4/27/12 8:0 EDT! allowComments:true! displayComments:true!Posted by Aaron Blake at 02:45 PM ET, 04/26/2012 TheWashingtonPost

Forget Mormonism; the real story in the Republican Party right now is the rise of the Catholics.

Republicans, who according to Smart Politics have put a Catholic on the ticket just once before (vice presidential candidate William Miller in 1964), seem to be experiencing something of a Catholic renaissance.
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) addresses a crowd at a town hall meeting in Manchester, N.J. Christie, like most other potential GOP vice presidential nominees, is Catholic, but the party has only had a Catholic on the ticket once before. (AP Photo/Mel Evans)

First, a pair of Catholics in Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum gave Mitt Romney a run for his money in the nominating contest, and now, four of the five politicians seen as most likely to join Romney on the ticket are Catholic as well.

Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.), New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell and Rep. Paul Ryan (Wis.) — four of the five most likely GOP VP choices, according to InTrade — are all Catholic, not to mention other people thought to be contenders, like Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, former Florida governor Jeb Bush, Sen. Pat Toomey (Pa.), New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez, Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval and Sen. Kelly Ayotte (N.H.).

In other words, most of the top contenders are Catholic.

It means that there’s a distinct chance that the 2012 Republican presidential ticket will not have a Protestant on it after decades of Protestants having a stranglehold on the party’s presidential nomination.

But the 2012 veepstakes aside, the rising crop of Catholic politicians in the Republican Party signals a couple other shifts.

Most of these politicians will be considered top potential presidential candidates down the line, meaning it’s quite possible the Republican Party will nominate its first-ever Catholic for president in the relatively near future.

The Catholic GOP candidate, until recently, was a rare thing. And Rudy Giuliani, Sam Brownback and Tommy Thompson didn’t exactly take a big step forward in the 2008 GOP presidential race.

Also, it signals an evolution for the party beyond the days of “Values Voters,” when social conservatives and evangelicals seemed to dominate the debate within the party and set the agenda.

Catholics (aside from Santorum) are known for being more moderate and may have had a harder time fitting into that Republican Party.

Today, though, it’s quite possible the party’s leading voices of the future will be distinctly Catholic.

See what your friends are reading!

Ed O’keefe 

Ed O'keefe 

David Nakamura; Ed O’keefe 

Rachel Weiner 

Associated Press 

Lisa Rein 

Rosalind S. Helderman; Felicia Sonmez 

Rosalind S. Helderman 

Joe Davidson 

Chris Cillizza 

Chris Cillizza 

Josh Hicks 

Rachel Weiner 

Associated Press 


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Sunday, April 29, 2012

Republican Party of Armenia checks voters' lists - Information-Analytic Agency NEWS.am

April 28, 2012 | 15:38

YEREVAN. – Rules of holding civilized elections do not suppose legal or civil responsibility, Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) executive body member David Harutyunyan said at a press conference on Saturday.

“We have held nine meetings. Statements were voiced that voters’ lists have ‘grown’ is concerning,” Harutyunyan said adding the RPA checked the lists and erased names of 68,000 voters.

No one has applied for violations or double registration. Besides, personal data of many people simply coincides, he added.

The Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) is a ruling conservative party in Armenia founded on 2 April, 1990, and registered on 14 May, 1991, being the first officially registered socio-political organization in the independent Republic of Armenia.

Since 2003, the Republican Party is a core member of the ruling coalition along with the Prosperous Armenia and Orinats Yerkir parties. RPA has majority of seats in the Armenian parliament since 2003.

The Republican Party of Armenia will run in the parliamentary elections under its new slogan: “Let us believe to change!” The Party’s proportional list includes 253 names.

RPA has also nominated MP candidates with the majority election system in 33 electoral districts.


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Republican Veepstakes: Plain is the new pizzazz - Washington Post (blog)

Before you can make even a guess at who former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney will pick as his vice presidential running mate, you have to decide what this election is really about.


In this Feb. 20, 2012 file photo, Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio talks to reporters in Cincinnati, Ohio. Days into his new role as presumptive Republican presidential nominee, Mitt Romney has initiated a months-long search for a running mate, an effort to be guided as much by his methodical corporate-based approach as the shadows of Sarah Palin. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert, File)Is it a referendum on President Obama’s first four years in office? Or is it a choice between the policies and personalities of Romney and Obama?

Democrats generally prefer the latter option. Republicans like the former.

If you buy that basic way of thinking about the race, it makes it more likely that Romney’s main criteria in picking a running mate will be to do no harm, to avoid the public relations debacle that Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) courted when he named former Alaska governor Sarah Palin as his vice presidential pick in 2008.

Rather than having his VP pick be a major moment in the campaign, Romney may well want to simply make the pick, have he/she get the requisite two or three days of wall-to-wall media coverage and then disappear back into the fabric of the campaign as Republicans work to shine the spotlight fully on Obama and his record.

That way of thinking seems to have propelled Ohio Sen. Rob Portman’s prospects of late. Every one we talk to in DC — literally, everyone — seems to have Portman at or near the top of their Veepstakes list. He is, after all, a former Budget director (albeit during the Bush Administration) and a popular elected official from the swing state of Ohio.

And, most importantly if you believe the theory we laid out above, Portman is relatively short on pizzazz. (Here’s Stephen Colbert’s take on Portman.)

Our latest Veepstakes Line, which ranks the ten people most likely to wind up on the ticket, leans toward the safe(r) picks. Of course, Romney’s not likely to make the pick for several more months so we reserve the right to change our mind. (And then change it again.)

The rankings are below. The number one ranked candidate is the most likely to be the pick. Agree? Or, more likely, disagree? The comments section awaits.

To the Line!

10. Susana Martinez : Martinez, the governor of New Mexico, is probably the least well known politician on this list. And, in a party still trying to get out from under the Palin pick, Martinez’s lack of experience at the national level may ultimately doom her chances. Still, she has much to recommend her as the first Hispanic woman elected governor of a state — and a swing state no less! The 2012 election may be too soon for Martinez’s debut on the national stage but she is someone to keep an eye on beyond this November. (Previous ranking: 5)

9. Chris Christie : If ever there was someone who was temperamentally unsuited to be vice president, it’s the governor of New Jersey. He oozes “boss” from every pore not “guy standing next to the boss”. That said, people don’t tend to turn down the vice presidency when it’s offered to them. Particularly people who face a perilous reelection campaign in 2013. (Previous ranking: 6)

8. Bobby Jindal : Jindal clearly has a large number of vocal advocates within the Republican party. (We know because anytime we write anything with a whiff of criticism regarding Jindal in it, they barrage our email inbox.) While Jindal’s profile is appealing — popular conservative governor from the South, Indian American etc. — it just feels like he is on a trajectory to run for president in 2016 or 2020 rather than serve as VP in 2012. But maybe that’s just us. (Previous ranking: 4)

7. Kelly Ayotte: The New Hampshire Senator is still barely being buzzed about when it comes to the Veepstakes but we’ve got a hunch that she may wind up being a more serious player by the end of this process. Why? Ayotte is a woman (duh) from a swing state who is well liked by both the tea party and establishment wings of the party. She also has a law and order background — she was the state Attorney General before being elected to the Senate in 2010 — and a very natural manner on the campaign trail. If you are looking for a darkhorse, Ayotte could well be it. (Previous ranking: N/A)

6. Bob McDonnell : The Virginia Republican hasn’t done anything wrong since we last ranked the vice presidential candidates. The reason for his drop? The more Republican strategists we talk to, the more convinced we are that some of the things in McDonnell’s past — his controversial thesis, transvaginal ultrasounds etc. — are too risky for the notoriously risk-averse Romney. On the other hand, we are increasingly convinced that Virginia the swing state in November and, if that’s the case, Romney might be convinced to put the very popular governor of the Commonwealth on the ticket. (Previous ranking: 2)

5. Paul Ryan : There’s no candidate who we struggle more to rank on the Line than the Wisconsin Republican. On the one hand, he is sort of a plain choice: a white male from the Midwest who currently serves in Congress. On the other, his proposed budgets make him a potential pizzazz pick — for good and bad. When Romney and Ryan campaigned together in the runup to the Wisconsin primary, there seemed to be a real connection (an underrated factor when it comes to picking a running mate). But does Romney really want to answer for the politically tough decisions in a budget he didn’t even write? (Previous ranking: 10)

4. Tim Pawlenty : If Romney truly wants to make no news and put someone on the ticket who won’t rock the boat, then the former Minnesota governor could be the best choice. While Pawlenty struggled when he was the headliner during his own presidential bid earlier this year, he is a dogged campaigner and someone who has been a steady messenger for Romney. If the whole presidential race rests in the Rust Belt, Pawlenty’s humble roots and Sam’s Club Republicans message could resound. Another plus? he has the best nickname — Tpaw — of anyone on the Line. (Previous ranking: 8)

3. John Thune : The South Dakota Senator is, for some reason, not getting much love in the Veepstakes. We’re not exactly sure why. Thune is a safe pick who brings a bit more charisma and conservative name recognition with him than even Portman. Of course, Thune is from South Dakota, which is not exactly a swing state. Still, Thune’s stock is a bit undervalued at the moment. We would suggest buying now since it seems likely to rise between now and when the pick is finally made. (Previous ranking: 7)

2. Marco Rubio : Yes, we know we compared Rubio to Lionel Messi is our last Veepstakes Line. But, Rubio is very clearly a pizzazz not a plain pick and would overshadow Romney on the ticket from the day he was picked. Does Romney willingly want to do that? It’s also important to remember that for all of the adulation Rubio gets, he is still a newbie on the national stage. We were reminded of that fact when he couldn’t seem to track down the final page of his foreign policy speech at Brookings earlier this week. (Previous ranking: 1)

1. Rob Portman : As odd as this is to write, Portman is very clearly the hottest commodity in the veepstakes at the moment. While we have written that being the pick of GOP insiders isn’t the greatest attribute in an outsider election like this one, Portman seems to fit the bill if Romney is looking for a steady, proven candidate who happens to come from a swing state. One other thing we’ll say for Portman: He’s the rare politician who has a legitimate statewide political organization in a state the size of Ohio. (Previous ranking: 3)


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Saturday, April 28, 2012

Rubio's 'Dream Act Light' Jumbles Immigration Issue - NPR

Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., the son of Cuban immigrants, has urged his fellow conservatives to soften their rhetoric on illegal immigration. Above, he makes a campaign stop with Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney on Monday in Aston, Pa. Jessica Kourkounis/Getty Images

Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., the son of Cuban immigrants, has urged his fellow conservatives to soften their rhetoric on illegal immigration. Above, he makes a campaign stop with Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney on Monday in Aston, Pa.

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio spent the week in the spotlight as the latest potential running mate for presumptive Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney. The Hispanic lawmaker, anointed as the party's best hope for appealing to more Latino voters, came loaded for bear — rolling out an alternative to the Democrats' Dream Act.

Rubio has released few details of his plan to address illegal immigration, and says he wants to introduce a bill in the Senate in June. But, like the Democrat-backed version defeated by Senate Republicans in 2010, the legislation would help young people brought to the U.S. as children stay in the country legally if they attend college or serve in the military. By most estimates, between 800,000 and 1.2 million people would be eligible.

The key distinction between the Rubio and Democratic plans is in how people would be legalized. The original act would put people on a path to citizenship. Rubio's plan would stop short by issuing non-immigrant visas allowing recipients to remain in the U.S. for college or military service.

Rubio's critics say his plan would create a permanent second class of people unable to obtain the full rights of citizenship. Supporters, however, say visa recipients could still apply for citizenship through the existing process, which can take a decade or longer.

In contrast, Democrats say, their plan would naturalize people as citizens far sooner.

Rubio's Evolution On The Issue

Rubio's move is a departure from the hard line on illegal immigration he took while running for the Senate in 2010, angering many Hispanic groups who had hoped he would help push Republicans toward a pro-citizenship stance.

Rubio, 40, the son of Cuban immigrants, ran as a Tea Party favorite and avowed conservative. Since then, he has softened his position, having publicly urged fellow Republicans to tone down their hostile rhetoric about illegal immigrants before weighing in with his proposal.

With his considerable political talents, and hailing from an important presidential battleground state, Rubio has emerged as his party's most prominent Latino.

Hispanics' rapid population growth will give them a pivotal role in the 2012 elections, particularly in some battleground states. As a vice presidential candidate, or perhaps in some other prominent role in the Romney campaign, Rubio could help the Republican Party siphon Hispanic votes from the Democrats.

The political crosscurrents at play are dizzying. People on all sides of the immigration debate are closely watching Rubio assume the forbidding task of carefully crafting a proposal that meets several objectives: help repair the GOP brand among Hispanics; appeal to non-Hispanic independent voters who favor a path to citizenship; and upend President Obama and the Democrats' advantage on the issue, all without angering conservatives.

Here's a sampling of the wide range of opinions about Rubio's version of the Dream Act. This story continues below the graphic.

Dream Act Light: Opinions Across The Spectrum

Obama seemed to derisively allude to the Rubio plan in a recent interview with the Spanish-language network Telemundo: "This notion that somehow Republicans want to have it both ways — they want to vote against these laws and appeal to anti-immigrant sentiment ... and then they come and say, 'But we really care about these kids and we want to do something about it' — that looks like hypocrisy to me."

He's not the only presidential candidate who might feel pressure. Romney himself must consider whether to embrace Rubio's proposal and risk being lambasted again by conservatives and the Obama campaign as a flip-flopper. The last Republican presidential nominee, Arizona Sen. John McCain, lost to Barack Obama in part because he was unable to energize conservatives, who hadn't forgiven him for the McCain-Kennedy immigration bill, which would have set a path to citizenship.

So far, reactions to the Rubio proposal have been mixed, even unexpected. For instance, some immigrant advocates who usually side with the Democrats on the issue have enthusiastically gotten behind Rubio, even though his plan appears to fall short of the original Dream Act. Their decision was made easier by their frustrations over Obama's failure to get the original act through Congress, as well as the record number of deportations processed by his administration.


View the original article here

Thursday, April 19, 2012

Republicans and the Gun Lobby

Republican politicians gathering at the National Rifle Association convention in St. Louis are eagerly pandering to a powerful political lobby that is intent on making the nation’s gun laws weaker and more riddled with more dangerous loopholes. Rather than tackling public safety risks like the Stand Your Ground law implicated in the killing of Trayvon Martin in Florida, Mitt Romney and others offered nothing but exhortations to defend the Second Amendment’s right to bear arms at all costs.

Opinion Twitter Logo.For Op-Ed, follow @nytopinion and to hear from the editorial page editor, Andrew Rosenthal, follow @andyrNYT.

President Obama has regrettably been avoiding the gun control issue. Still, Mr. Romney attacked him at the convention on Friday, promising to stand with the N.R.A. “for the rights of hunters and sportsmen and those seeking to protect their homes and their families.” This was a far cry from Mr. Romney’s 1994 campaign for the United States Senate when he assured centrist Massachusetts voters: “I don’t line up with the N.R.A.” Yet there he was in St. Louis, lining up. Newt Gingrich, in his over-the-top manner, urged a United Nations campaign to proclaim the Second Amendment “a human right for every person on the planet.”

The convention, in its “celebration of American values,” has drawn tens of thousands of members to see genuflecting Republicans and to browse a seven-acre commercial mart of guns and shooting paraphernalia, much of it designed for the battlefields of war, not the home front.

Notably absent are top Democratic politicians, who seem to have concluded that, despite thousands of constituents shot or killed each year, it is best to go silent about gun control.

Polls show Republicans enjoy heavy support and donations from gun owners. In return, the gun lobby has had steady success in weakening gun laws — especially in the two dozen statehouses that followed Florida in enacting new self-defense laws to allow the instant use of deadly force in a confrontation rather than retreat from danger. These laws are fostered by the conservative American Legislative Exchange Council, with heavyweight business supporters like Walmart, a major gun retailer.

The families of the victims killed and wounded in the Virginia Tech massacre do not come close to having such clout. For the tragedy’s fifth anniversary next week, they are having a hard time securing meetings with Washington politicians to fix the law that promised a more complete and up-to-date federal list of the mentally ill, who should be barred from buying guns. But two dozen states have submitted fewer than 100 mental health records each when tens of thousands should be entered, according to Mayors Against Illegal Guns, a national gun reform group. Financing to help state reporting efforts was supposed to be $1.1 billion over the last four years, yet Congress appropriated only $51 million. So goes the nation’s utter failure to deal with the gun menace.


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Santorum's Dusted Indigo Period

Of all the amazing statements Rick Santorum made during this year’s presidential race, the one that astonished me the most was one that seemed innocuous.

In a speech in late March before Republicans in suburban Harrisburg, Santorum said that losing his Senate seat in 2006 was a “tremendous gift,” a lesson in humility that he had taken to heart.

“The people of Pennsylvania didn’t always give me what I wanted but they always gave me what I needed,” he said. “And it was a great, in many respects for me, a great gift to get away, to separate out, to get back and involved in the private sector. I had a little distance from Washington to see what was going on.”

Santorum should have felt humbled. He was a two-term incumbent who spent $20 million on his re-election campaign and still lost by nearly 18 points.

To me, one measure of electability is a candidate’s reach outside his party base. The Rick Santorum of 2006 had no reach. He ended up with 41.3 percent of the popular vote, while Republicans in Pennsylvania constituted 40.3 percent of the electorate.

CNN exit polls confirmed the shellacking Santorum took from his Democratic opponent Bob Casey Jr., losing virtually every voter group by wide margins: Democrats, of course, (Casey won 93 percent of the Democratic vote); independents (Casey 73 percent); moderates (65 percent); women (61 percent) and so on and so forth.

Santorum wasn’t defeated by the voters in 2006; he was repudiated. They did not like his politics. They did not like his personality. To put it in terms he might use, they cast him out of the Senate and into the darkness.

If that had happened to me, it would have been a cause of great pain and some soul searching.

An analogous situation is how the United States military reacted after Vietnam. It engaged in a long self-analysis that resulted in transformative changes in strategy, tactics and leadership with the goal of never, ever repeating the mistakes made in that war.

Santorum’s statement implies that in 2006 voters gave him the opportunity to engage in a similar self-analysis: What did he do that he should never repeat? What aspects of his personality could he alter to positive effect? How should his strategy and tactics be changed to improve the outcome?

Handed this “tremendous gift” from the voters, Santorum emerged from the crucible of his 2006 defeat unchanged. He was older, a little thicker around the middle, but in every other aspect he was the same Rick as in 2006. Only instead of playing on the smaller field of Pennsylvania, he decided to go nationwide and run for president.

It was as if the generals in the Pentagon, after reviewing their loss in Vietnam, decided that the best corrective action would be to attack China. That the mistake they made — waging a land war in a small country — could be rectified by waging a land war in a huge country.

Analogies can only take you so far. For Santorum, what made 2012 different was that while he did not change, his audience did. In Pennsylvania, he always appealed to the most conservative of the conservatives, and he did the same in the Republican primaries.

Where we Pennsylvanians saw arrogance, conservative and Tea Party Republicans saw passion. Where we saw rigidity on moral and social issues, they saw rectitude. Where we saw a hard-right politician, they saw a righteous warrior for their cause.

The very attributes and positions that made Santorum anathema to so many Pennsylvania voters in 2006 lifted him into contention in 2012 among a core of activist, angry Republicans.

Among the general electorate, one’s ability to like Santorum tends to be in inverse ratio to one’s exposure to him. The more regular voters saw him, the less they liked him.

When Santorum first announced for president, I thought he would be underestimated as a candidate (which he was) and that he had great potential if he portrayed himself as an economic populist: a man with working-class roots and disdain for the Richie Riches of this world. You know, guys with Harvard M.B.A.’s who worked for private equity investment firms. Not to mention any names.

But that didn’t get his juices flowing. The rights of homosexuals, the morality of abortion and contraception, the evil of Islamofacism, lectures on how moral turpitude had weakened America.  Those were the subjects that got Santorum going.

In this way, he fit Winston Churchill’s definition of a fanatic — someone who can’t change his mind and won’t change the topic.

When I covered the Senate race in 2006, Santorum’s advisers privately rolled their eyes and clucked over this tendency. In public, they just shrugged and called it “Rick being Rick.” In 2006, though, they tried their best to make Rick a little less Rick.

By the summer of that year, Santorum’s numbers against Casey had not improved.  The needle was stuck on a double-digit lead for the Democrat. Something had to be done.  So John Brabender, Santorum’s talented political and media guru, went up with a series of television ads designed to soften his candidate’s image, trying to recast Santorum as a nice guy with centrist instincts. I call this the Dusted Indigo Period of Santorum’s political career.

For these ads, Brabender had Santorum shuck his pin-striped blue suit with red power tie. Instead, he appeared on the screen in khaki slacks and buttoned-down cotton shirts — the kind seen in Eddie Bauer and L.L. Bean catalogs, offered in a palette of solid colors with names like Merlot, Cabin Red, Juniper and Dusted Indigo.

In one, he appeared in a wrestling ring. As huge guys smashed each other in the background, Santorum declared that he deplored the smash-and-whack politics in Washington and that he had reached across the aisle to work with senators such as Joe Lieberman, Barbara Boxer and even (gasp!) Hillary Clinton.

In another, he appeared on the dance floor of a polka party, surrounded by seniors. He smiled as he recounted all that he had done to make sure their Social Security was protected (not mentioning how he supported President Bush’s plan to privatize parts of it.)

In a third, he sat at a kitchen table, shaking his head over how some in the media called him too conservative, while other called him too liberal. “The right thing to call me,” he said, “is passionate about helping the families of Pennsylvania.”

When I saw that last ad, I picked up the phone and called the Santorum campaign. Who, I asked, has ever called Rick Santorum too liberal?

There was someone. An ultra-conservative columnist for the very conservative Pittsburgh Tribune-Review had blasted Santorum for supporting an increase in the minimum wage. ”Santorum, ‘too extreme’?,” the columnist Colin McNickle wrote. “Pshaw! Try too liberal, at least on matters economic.”

The Dusted Indigo ads were clever, smartly done and showed Santorum in his best light.

But they also are an object lesson on the limits of hitting the reset button on your image and political identity. To use a current example, it’s not like an Etch A Sketch. The shadows of the real Rick Santorum remained embedded in voter’s minds. The ads did not work. The needle did not budge. In November 2006, he lost to Casey by a margin of 708,000 votes statewide.

There’s something admirable in Santorum’s consistency. He never temporizes. He remains true to his core values. He is a righteous man. He is also poison politically.

What happened to him in Pennsylvania in 2006 would have happened to him nationally in 2012 had he won the Republican nomination.

Santorum got out of the race at the right moment. He won’t have to worry about winning or losing the Pennsylvania primary. He scores points among Republican leaders for not prolonging the race. He is getting mentioned as a possible candidate in 2016.

From the ashes of his 2006 campaign, Santorum has resurrected his political career. This experience of running for president has been a tremendous gift, too. Once again, he will have an opportunity to learn from his mistakes. Once again, he will not.

When he re-emerges on the political stage, he will be the same as when he exited it. It will be more of “Rick being Rick.”  It’s what he does best.

Tom Ferrick Jr. is senior editor of Metropolis, a Philadelphia news and commentary Web site. He has covered government and politics in Pennsylvania since 1974.


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Wednesday, April 18, 2012

House Republicans to Tackle Federal Budget

The budget, which passed the House last month and has since become a central focus of the presidential campaign, has faced blistering criticism for steep cuts to federal programs, including a blast from President Obama, who called it “thinly veiled social Darwinism.”

But the deep reductions that Mr. Obama spelled out for higher education, medical research, crime fighting and Head Start are more supposition than reality until the details are filled out. And the charge that such cuts would merely pay for still more tax cuts for the rich is expressly denied by Republican leaders who foresee no change in revenue under the budget.

Now the real work begins. Representative Dave Camp of Michigan, the House Ways and Means chairman, will hold meetings with Republican the rank and file next week to map out an overhaul of the tax code that strips it down to just two personal income tax rates — 25 percent and 10 percent — and a 25 percent corporate income tax rate, and to pay for it by curtailing or ending tax deductions and credits.

A half-dozen committees will begin drafting legislation to meet a budget-mandated $261 billion in savings over the next decade to stave off scheduled across-the-board cuts to the military in January. First up will be the Judiciary Committee on Tuesday, with a bill to curb medical malpractice suits and save the government $39.7 billion over 10 years. On Wednesday, the Financial Services Committee will vote on legislation to save $35 billion over a decade by eliminating a fund designed to prevent future bank bailouts, ending a foreclosure reduction effort, slicing $4.9 billion from the federal flood insurance program, and putting the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau under Congressional control and cutting its budget by $5.4 billion.

Also on Wednesday, the House Ways and Means Committee will draft a measure to save $53 billion over 10 years, in part by grabbing back overpayments for subsidized insurance purchases under the new health care law and by requiring parents to present a Social Security number to claim child care tax credits.

The Agriculture Committee must slice $33.2 billion from its programs, most likely focusing on nutrition and food stamps. The House Energy and Commerce Committee must find nearly $100 billion in savings when it meets in two weeks. Much of it will come from repealing parts of the president’s health care law and curbing medical liability lawsuits.

Michael Steel, a spokesman for Speaker John A. Boehner of Ohio, said: “President Obama’s own secretary of defense has said the defense sequester would ‘hollow out’ our armed forces. We have a responsibility to show a better, smarter option.”

Even with these efforts, critics say the budget is far less groundbreaking than its supporters and opponents say it is. For all his big numbers on spending reductions and tax changes, Representative Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin, chairman of the House Budget Committee, included few details or instructions to make them happen.

The attainability of his deficit reduction targets are “impossible to know unless you start to describe what kind of cuts are really required,” said Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, who supports the ambition of the budget but faults its partisan tilt.

For instance, to meet its deficit reduction targets, the House budget calls for nearly $1.9 trillion in savings from entitlement programs outside Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, so called other mandatory spending, but it instructs committee chairmen to draft legislation securing a tiny fraction of that amount.

The budget describes significant changes to Medicare, Medicaid and food stamps. Medicare would be transformed from a government-run insurance program to a menu of private insurance plans subsidized by the government. Medicaid and food stamps would be converted to block grants to the states, which would be allowed to impose work requirements and time limits. But nowhere are the relevant committees mandated to actually draft the legislation to make any of that happen. Mr. Camp has already indicated he has no intention of drafting Medicare legislation that has no chance of becoming law. And Senator Harry Reid, the majority leader, has already said he has no intention of passing a budget this year.

The House Appropriations Committee would have to find cuts from domestic discretionary programs through 2022 totaling $1.44 trillion below program growth through inflation, 25 percent, or $1.2 trillion — 21 percent — below caps agreed to last summer, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a liberal research organization. But that cutting would not kick in until 2014, when appropriators would have to cut domestic spending by 24 percent. For fiscal 2013, the budget that must be finished before the election, the cut is a more manageable 9.8 percent below inflation growth and 7.5 percent below agreed-upon levels.

The two biggest question marks are on a tax overhaul and the black box of “other mandatory” cuts. On taxes, collapsing the current six tax brackets into two, with the highest bracket dropping to 25 percent from 35 percent, would cost the Treasury revenue totaling $4.5 trillion over 10 years, according to the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center. Democrats and some tax experts say that paying for that with loophole closings cannot be done, unless Republicans plan to gut tax programs for the working poor, like the earned income credit.

But Sage Eastman, a spokesman for the Ways and Means Committee, said Mr. Camp was eager to prove them wrong. Donald Marron, a former Bush administration economist and president of the Tax Policy Center, tallied $7.7 trillion in “tax expenditures” over the next five years.

“I’ll say emphatically we can do it,” Mr. Eastman said.


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Tuesday, April 17, 2012

New Labor Effort Looks to Counter Republican Groups

The 2012 general election campaign — just days old — is already shaping up as a contest about which candidate can better identify with the plight of working-class Americans struggling to make ends meet.

On Thursday, President Obama’s allies in organized labor are to announce an Internet-based effort to rally workers to the president’s corner using what they say will be the latest social media tools.

In an event at the Washington headquarters of the A.F.L.-C.I.O., organizers are scheduled to unveil a new Web site, workersvoice.org, along with ambitious plans to energize union and nonunion workers to participate in the presidential and Congressional elections.

“The labor movement is the original social network,” said Eddie Vale, the communications director for the new group. “Workers’ Voice will be revolutionizing it for today’s world by taking our traditional field and organizing knowledge and applying it to the digital era and making it available to all workers.”

In the last six months, Mr. Obama has increasingly focused his campaign for re-election on a populist argument that the policies of the Republicans would benefit the wealthiest in the country, leaving most workers behind.

This week, Mr. Obama is pushing Congress to pass what Democrats call the “Buffett Rule,” which would require anyone making over $1 million a year to pay at least 30 percent in taxes.

“Tell them to stop giving tax breaks to the wealthiest Americans who don’t need them and aren’t asking for them,” Mr. Obama said during an event on Wednesday. “Tell them to start asking everybody to do their fair share and play by the same rules.”

The new labor group describes itself as a counter to those allied behind Mitt Romney, Mr. Obama’s likely opponent in the fall. They include American Crossroads and other “super PACs” that have pledged to support Mr. Romney with advertising and voter mobilization efforts.

In fact, Mr. Romney has made clear in recent weeks that he intends to prosecute the same populist case against Mr. Obama, describing the sitting president as out of touch with the plight of everyday Americans and unable to develop solutions that will help them weather the economic turmoil.

“Years of flying around on Air Force One, surrounded by an adoring staff of true believers telling you what a great job you are doing, well, that might be enough to make you a little out of touch,” Mr. Romney said earlier this month.

American Crossroads — which was founded by Karl Rove, the former top political aide to President George W. Bush, and Ed Gillespie, who recently signed on with Romney campaign — and other independent groups are likely to seize on that theme in the coming weeks. The new union-led group is hoping to counter that message, though it’s unclear how much money the group will have at its disposal.

“Workers’ Voice is going to be a counterpart to Willard Romney’s and Karl Rove’s groups that accept millions in corporate and 1 percent money,” Mr. Vale said. “But unlike them we are not going to focus on negative TV ads.”

Instead, Mr. Vale said, the group will focus on “activating and empowering networks of working families to counter their attacks.”

Labor unions have long been allies of Democratic presidential candidates, especially when it comes to get-out-the-vote efforts that can make the difference in close elections. It’s not clear what the relationship is between the unions and the new group.

Conservatives contend the influence of the labor unions is a vastly underreported asset for Democratic candidates.

The Web site for the new group says it will be dedicated to “connecting and empowering working families to make a difference in political and legislative campaigns.”

“As mega millionaires like Willard Romney, the Koch Brothers and large corporations try and buy our political and legislative process Workers’ Voice will activate and energize networks of working families,” the site says, using “cutting-edge technology and old-fashioned energy.”

Specifically, Mr. Vale said the group plans to use new social media tools to enhance door-to-door canvassing and phone banks in ways that have not been tried on a large scale by such groups in the past.

A successful effort by the group could help the president deflect attacks by the Republican super PACs and allow Mr. Obama’s campaign to remain on the offensive in describing Mr. Romney as the one who does not understand working Americans.

But so far, Democratic groups backing Mr. Obama have had far less luck raising money to support their efforts than their Republican counterparts. The Web site of the new group asks for donations from $5 to $500 or more.

“Your contribution today will help create the foundation for the work we need to do to win the political and legislative fights important to working families,” the site says.

Follow Michael D. Shear on Twitter at @shearm.


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Ann Romney's R�sum� Includes More Than 'Stay-at-Home Mother'

Has Ann Romney ever worked?

Even as Republicans and Democrats argue over whether stay-at-home mothers should feel insulted by a Democratic strategist’s  comment that Mrs. Romney “never worked a day in her life,” a review of the record shows that Mrs. Romney has, in fact, worked outside the home at various stages of her life.

It’s not clear if her labor was paid or not; whatever pay she might have earned was certainly not enough to sustain a large family. But like most women who identify mainly as mothers, her life cannot be summed up in a single phrase.

Growing up in Michigan, Mrs. Romney pitched in at her father’s company, Jered Industries in Troy, as she has recalled on the campaign trail in February. The firm manufactured heavy machinery for the maritime industry.

As an adult, Mrs. Romney turned her talents as a chef into something of a small business in Massachusetts. She and a friend held cooking classes for local foodies, according to her son Josh, who described the sessions in a 2007 interview with The New York Times.

Beyond that, Mrs. Romney has held a number of posts with Boston-area charities and advocacy groups. She was, for example, a director at Best Friends, an organization focused on inner-city girls, and a volunteer instructor at the Mother Caroline Academy, a multicultural middle school in Boston.

Those stints, however intensive, time-consuming or lucrative, appear to belie the sweeping declaration by the Democratic operative, Hilary Rosen, that Mrs. Romney “never worked a day in her life.”

Ms. Rosen’s remarks on Wednesday night have touched off a lively debate over what qualifies as women’s work, especially as the presidential campaigns zero in on female voters.

A spokeswoman for Mitt Romney’s campaign, Andrea Saul, said: “The issue is not whether Ann has spent time working outside the home. Of course she did other things besides raise a family, including volunteering her time for causes that she cares about.”

“The real issue,” Ms. Saul said, “is that women make different choices regarding family and careers, and they should be supported no matter what decision they make.”


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More Help for the Wealthy

This week, the House Republican leadership is expected to bring up the “Small Business Tax Cut Act,” a bill to let most business owners deduct up to 20 percent of their business income in 2012 — a $46 billion tax cut. Despite the Mom-and-Pop label, it is designed so that nearly half of the tax cut would go to people with annual income over $1 million, and more than four-fifths would go to those making over $200,000, according to the Tax Policy Center.

The bill’s proponents, led by Majority Leader Eric Cantor, say that lower taxes would lead to more hiring. But the economic reality is that employers, big and small, are hesitant to hire because of slow or uncertain demand for their products and services, not because of their tax burden. And companies would receive the tax cut even if they did not hire new workers — making it a windfall, not an incentive.

The bill is predicated on an overly broad definition of “small business” — one with fewer than 500 employees, which can include multimillion-dollar partnerships and corporations. It is also based on a willful denial of the reality that small businesses are not the big job creators politicians often say they are.

If “small” were set at 50 employees, small businesses would be credited with creating less than a third of the new jobs over the last 20 years. And many such jobs are soon lost as small businesses struggle or fail. The best way to encourage their success is with continued government spending to support demand and by building a well-regulated banking system that is not prone to the busts that devastate small businesses.

As for the broader economy, the Congressional Budget Office analyzed 13 policies last year for their potential impact on economic growth and job creation in 2012 and 2013. The option of a business tax cut along the lines of the Cantor bill ranked next to last in bang for the buck. More effective options include fiscal aid to states and increased safety net spending, which create jobs by bolstering consumer demand — and which Republicans fiercely oppose.

Another immediate step Congress could take to create demand and jobs would be for House Republicans to drop their objections and reauthorize the highway bill, at least for two years, as the Senate has done. That would help private-sector contractors and suppliers, as well as government workers, boosting local businesses in areas where jobs are created. Extending the research and development tax credit would also help some businesses, but Senate Republicans have blocked that.

The business tax cut for not-so-small businesses will almost certainly pass the House. Senate Democrats have introduced a tax relief bill that is linked specifically to companies hiring new employees. They should stick with that. This doesn’t mean that the tax system doesn’t need fixing. It does. In the Senate this week, the Democratic leadership will make an argument for more fairness, by calling for a vote on the Buffett Rule. It would require the wealthiest taxpayers to pay at least 30 percent of their income in federal taxes and, in the process, raise some $47 billion over 10 years. Republican senators are expected to block the vote. When you mail your taxes this week, think about that.


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Monday, April 16, 2012

The Next Phase of the G.O.P. Campaign

Re “Santorum Quits Race, Clearing a Path for Romney” (front page, April 11):

Whether it’s Rick Santorum or Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich or Rick Perry, whether it’s packaged as a return to “values,” a call for “fiscal discipline,” or a restoring of America’s “place in the world,” it’s the same product under a recognizable Republican brand: merchandise that promises tax cuts for everyone, especially the rich; deregulation for business, belt-tightening for everyone else; and war or the threat of war all over the world.

In other words, the Republican nominee, whoever he is, advocates a return to the policies of 2001 to 2008 that got us into the mess, one from which President Obama has been extracting the nation. All of these Republicans present a distorted picture of the president and his record of achievement against impossible odds these last three years.

Republicans say this is a watershed election. It is; it will test whether Americans are paying attention, whether they can see that Republicans are offering their same old product, whether the label on the outside is “Romney” or “Santorum” or “generic Republican.”

JOHN E. COLBERT
Chicago, April 11, 2012

To the Editor:

The Republican Party can breathe a sigh of relief over the long-awaited exit from the presidential race of mean-spirited, short-tempered, sanctimonious Rick Santorum.

I did not want to believe that the electorate at large would crown someone like Mr. Santorum to be the leader of the free world, but he came too close to achieving that goal for my comfort, demonstrating significant appeal to a certain swath of America that wishes to take us back in time and in the wrong direction on many issues.

Mitt Romney is by no means a giant of the political world or a savior for our country, but he might be a “good enough” leader and one who can defeat President Obama. That would bury at least for the moment the president’s misguided, unsustainable, expensive vision for the nation, in which government and what it can do for us is the focus of our lives as the national debt continues to explode.

With a giant thorn removed from the side of Mr. Romney through Mr. Santorum’s exit, there is opportunity for the G.O.P. to unite behind the leading vote-getter, assuming that the party can survive frequent Democratic replays of some of the disparaging comments that Mr. Santorum has made about the man who will be the Republican nominee.

OREN M. SPIEGLER
Upper St. Clair, Pa., April 11, 2012

To the Editor:

It’s a good thing that Rick Santorum dropped out of the Republican presidential race. He had no chance of winning and was doing more harm than good.

Now Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul need to follow. There’s a better chance of reviving the woolly mammoth than their campaigns.

MARK R. GODBURN
North Canaan, Conn., April 11, 2012


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What Rick Santorum Wrought

Rick Santorum is a party crasher.

He has helped crash the Republican Party into a wall of public resentment. He suspended his campaign this week, but not before doing incalculable damage to the Republican brand and to the party’s presumptive nominee, Mitt Romney.

For months, Santorum became the favored face of the most conservative faction of the party, the one person who gave them a viable chance at resisting Romney.

Santorum surged by dragging the debate so far to the right he couldn’t see the middle with a telescope. The base dropped all pretense of moderation or even modernity and followed Santorum down a slippery path that led to a political abyss of social regression. The rest of America watched in stunned disbelief and was left to wonder: Was this the rise of some sort of “Judeo-Christian Shariah” movement, as the political comedian Dean Obeidallah pointed out on CNN.com?

Rick Santorum on April 3.David Maxwell/European Pressphoto AgencyRick Santorum on April 3.

Instead of small government and fiscal conservatism, Santorum overwhelmingly promoted — and the public overwhelmingly focused on — his apparent obsession with sex and religion.

He argued that allowing women to use contraception to control when they got pregnant — one of the foremost decisions a woman can make about her body, her health and her and her family’s economic security — was morally wrong.

Santorum opposed abortion even in cases of rape and incest, saying that women should be forced to carry those pregnancies to term and just accept the “horribly created … gift” and “make the best of a bad situation.”

Santorum not only adamantly opposed same-sex marriage, saying that he would support a constitutional amendment banning it, he went so far as to say that gay people who had legally married under the laws of their states would have their marriages rendered “invalid.”

But he didn’t stop there. Santorum expressed other outlandish, head-scratching views on many more issues that seemed to cement his position as a man out of step with a modern America.

He slammed the president’s promotion of self-improvement through higher education as snobbery although he himself has bachelor’s, master’s and law degrees.

He suggested that women might be too emotional to serve on combat missions:

I do have concerns about women in frontline combat. I think that can be a very compromising situation where — where people naturally may do things that may not be in the interests of the mission because of other types of emotions that are involved.

And of course he denies climate change, calling climate science “political science,” and remarking: “The dangers of carbon dioxide? Tell that to a plant, how dangerous carbon dioxide is.”

I could go on, but it’s all just too exhausting and depressing.

At the same time, Santorum continuously chipped away at Romney as a dishonest man and a weak conservative, as well as the worst candidate to run against President Obama.

The shift in the debate, which Santorum helped create, and his withering attacks on the front-runner forced Romney to move further right than was politically prudent.

As a result, Romney is now weaker than any post-primary party nominee in recent political history. According to an analysis of CNN polling data stretching back to 1996, compiled by Zeke Miller of BuzzFeed, Romney is the only presidential nominee to emerge from the primaries with a net negative favorability rating.

A Washington Post/ABC News poll last week also painted a troublesome portrait for Romney this fall. In a head-to-head matchup, Obama beat Romney by seven points. But some of the trends among specific constituencies were even more troubling. As the Post pointed out:

If a Romney-Obama matchup were held today, registered voters would divide 51 percent for the president to 44 percent for the former Massachusetts governor. That is similar to the edge Obama held in a Post-ABC poll in February; the two were more evenly matched in March. A wide gender gap underlies the current state of the race. Romney is up eight percentage points among male voters but trails by 19 among women.

Furthermore, the newspaper noted:

In addition to his big lead among women — Obama won that demographic by 13 points in 2008 — the president is moving to secure other key elements of his winning coalition. As he did four years ago, he has overwhelming support from African-Americans — 90 percent back his re-election effort — and he has a big lead among those ages 18 to 29.

Santorum has left a wake of destruction for Romney and the Republicans that many Americans won’t soon forget.  As we turn to the general election, if Romney can’t count on electoral excitement, he must hope for electoral amnesia — and he has Santorum to thank for much of that.

(Exit Santorum, stage far, far right.)


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Sunday, April 15, 2012

The Fate of the Republicans Who Supported Gay Marriage

Mike Groll/Associated Press; Librado Romero/The New York Times; Mike Groll/Associated Press; Nathaniel Brooks for The New York TimesStephen M. Saland, Jim Alesi, Mark Grisanti and Roy J. McDonald.

At the end of January, New York’s Conservative Party, the most influential of the minor parties that complicate the state’s politics, celebrated its 50th anniversary at a Holiday Inn near the Albany airport, a vast and dingy venue that reminded me of athlete housing left over from the 1980 Moscow Olympics. Politicians like former Gov. George Pataki, who owed his election to the Conservatives, came to pay homage to the party for its record of steering the state’s politics to the right.

Gov. Andrew Cuomo signing New York’s marriage-equality bill into law. State Senator Jim Alesi, far right, is the lone Republican present.

But one calamity darkened the mood of nostalgia and self-congratulation: the passage last summer of a law legalizing same-sex marriage. For many New Yorkers, the June 24 marriage vote was a rare moment of goosebump drama from a capital better known for tedious dysfunction. For the Conservatives, and in particular for Mike Long, the ex-marine who has been the party’s chairman for nearly half of its history, the vote was a triple humiliation.

It was, first, a defining triumph for the state’s ambitious new Democratic governor, Andrew Cuomo. Second, it was an abandonment by Republican leaders, who had invoked party discipline to kill similar legislation in 2009. This time the Republican leaders publicly opposed gay marriage, but knowing that both public opinion and lobbying muscle were coalescing on the other side, they freed their members to vote as they wished. And that led to what was, for Mike Long, an unforgivable betrayal. All four of the Republican senators who voted for the bill and provided the necessary margin for it to pass had been elected with the Conservative endorsement, a prize for which opposition to gay marriage was an essential litmus test. Two of those wayward senators would not have won their seats without the Conservative boost.

Try as they might to explain away the defections — perhaps it was the lure of money from gay hedge-fund billionaires, or some devilish deal with Cuomo — the Conservatives feared that this defeat, if not punished, could mean an ominous loss of influence.

The four Republican apostates now had targets on their backs.

It is difficult to construct an argument against marriage rights for gay people that doesn’t sound like an argument against gay people. Mike Long and his fellow partisans, like many conservatives nationwide, build their case on what they call “the defense of traditional marriage.” No society in history, they told me repeatedly, has extended marriage rights to homosexuals, and so we shouldn’t risk the unraveling of civilization by starting now. (Apparently they don’t count the 10 countries, from Canada to South Africa, where gays may legally marry and civilization endures.) I’ve had a few conversations with Long, trying to understand what harm they think they are defending marriage from. In one conversation I recounted my own classic wedding at the Holy Name of Jesus church, and wondered how somebody else’s less conventional marriage could diminish the joy of it.

“Well, I don’t think it hurts anybody,” Long replied, “but I think a society has to have certain standards, and since the beginning of time, marriage has been between a man and a woman.” Marriage, he elaborated, is about children. “You’re not going to procreate children with same-sex couples.”

I told him that would be news to my daughters’ school classmates, the ones with two moms or two dads. And by the way, we don’t prohibit elderly, infertile or just plain procreation-averse couples from marrying.

“I know plenty of gay couples, O.K.?” he snapped back. “Some of them, if not all of them, are very good people, O.K.? I just don’t believe that society needs to change what the definition of marriage is to accommodate their lifestyle. That’s all. You know, that may be old-school. But I think Western civilization has done pretty good old-school.”

The quartet of dissident Republicans are themselves fairly old-school, at least when it comes to the rest of their conservative credentials. They come not from liberal Manhattan or the upscale suburbs of Westchester County. They are upstate guys, from struggling former mill towns and diminished Rust Belt cities. So while the senators’ political calculus differs from district to district, their experiences give us a glimpse into how this issue is likely to play out in “real America,” as conservatives are fond of calling it, and not just in the coastal metropolises. Which is why the fates of these four are being watched intently by national lobbies and wavering politicians across the country.

Bill Keller is a former executive editor of The Times. He writes a column for the Op-Ed page.

EDITOR: Greg Veis


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What Does Santorum's Future Hold?

Although Rick Santorum was exceptionally unlikely to win the Republican presidential nomination, his decision to suspend his campaign, which puts an effective end to the Republican nomination process, is obviously good news for Mitt Romney, who can now focus fully on his general election campaign against President Obama.

Mr. Santorum may have bought himself some goodwill with Republicans by clearing way for Mr. Romney, as polls increasingly revealed that most Republicans considered Mr. Romney’s nomination inevitable and many of them wanted to get the race over with. But is there any way for Mr. Santorum to cash in those chips?

Actually, that might be a challenge; it’s not clear where Mr. Santorum goes next.

Mr. Santorum might have some appeal to Mr. Romney as a vice presidential candidate, since he’s reasonably well vetted and comes from a swing state, Pennsylvania. But Mr. Santorum now has poor favorability ratings with the general public, with an average of 33 percent of voters viewing him favorably and 45 percent unfavorably in surveys conducted since March. As Mr. Romney also has such problems with his favorability ratings, he might be more inclined to pick a fresher face.

If Mr. Romney loses to Mr. Obama, then Mr. Santorum will be mentioned as a front-runner for the 2016 nomination. Mr. Santorum was always playing catch-up in this year’s campaign, having raised little money early on. With more cash, a deeper and more experienced staff, and more support from Republican Party officials, he could have more staying power. He’ll also have more experience under his belt.

It is questionable, however, whether Mr. Santorum can expect the competition in 2016 or 2020 to be as soft as it was this year, with big names like Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, Representative Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin, former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida, Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey and perhaps others looming on the horizon, and as the Republicans who were elected to office in the 2010 wave begin to mature as politicians. Whomever Mr. Romney selects as his vice presidential candidate will also have a good shot at future Republican nominations. Finishing second in a strong field of candidates, as John McCain did in the Republican race of 2000, may be an indication of future success, but it is less of a credential when the competition is middling and some of Mr. Santorum’s support came by virtue of being an “anti-Romney” candidate.

Mr. Santorum could also look to statewide office in Pennsylvania, but that might require a reasonably long wait. The incumbent governor there, Tom Corbett, is a Republican and is eligible for another term in 2014, so Mr. Santorum would either need to mount a primary challenge or hope that Mr. Corbett retires.

Of Pennsylvania’s two incumbent senators, one is a Democrat, Bob Casey, who resoundingly defeated Mr. Santorum in 2006 and who remains fairly popular. Because Mr. Casey is on the ballot again this year and it is too late for Mr. Santorum to challenge him, he would need to wait until 2018 for a rematch. Pennsylvania’s other incumbent senator, Pat Toomey, will be up for election in 2016. But Mr. Toomey is a Republican who is relatively young and who is too conservative to be vulnerable to a primary challenge.

Mr. Santorum is himself fairly young at 53, so he will have plenty of time to build up his brand name and evaluate his options. Still, it could easily be that the 2012 nomination campaign will prove to be the high-water mark of his political career.


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Wednesday, April 11, 2012

In House Races, Redistricting a Hurdle for New York Democrats

The Democratic Party suddenly faces the prospect of having to play defense in pockets around the state this fall, as Congressional districts once considered safe for the party have become more vulnerable, partly as a result of new Congressional maps put in place by a federal court.

For months, national Democrats had been counting on gains in New York to help the party pick up a few of the 25 additional seats it needs to reclaim the House. The situation developing in New York could undermine that strategy. But top Democrats insist that their incumbents are in strong positions and that the party will pick up seats, particularly since President Obama is at the top of the ticket and remains popular throughout the state.

House Republicans face their own challenges in the state, as top Democrats in Washington point out. Several Republican incumbents — most of them freshmen who took office in 2010 with the Tea Party support — must defend their seats against potentially strong Democratic challengers.

The Democrats

Representative Kathy Hochul, District 27

A first-term Democrat, Ms. Hochul is considered among the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents in New York. She achieved national prominence last year when she won a special election in a conservative district in the Buffalo area by turning the race into a referendum on a Republican proposal in Washington to overhaul Medicare.

The new Congressional map has made her district even more Republican, making her re-election prospects more difficult. Two Republicans are seeking the nomination to run against her: Chris Collins, the former Erie County executive; and David Bellavia, a veteran of the Iraq war and a Tea Party activist.

Representative Louise Slaughter, District 25

After serving nearly 25 years in Congress, Ms. Slaughter may be facing the most difficult challenge of her career. As a result of the new Congressional map, her district was consolidated into Monroe County, becoming slightly more Republican but still predominantly Democratic.

Now, Maggie A. Brooks, the popular Republican county executive in Monroe, has entered the race to unseat Ms. Slaughter, buoyed by the fact that her political base is in the heart of the congresswoman’s new district.

Representative Bill Owens, District 21

Mr. Owens, who represents this conservative district in northernmost upstate New York, initially won his seat in a 2009 special election and was re-elected the next year. In both instances, Mr. Owens won with less than 50 percent of the vote. And in both instances, his candidacy was helped by a third-party Conservative candidate who undercut the Republicans.

But that is unlikely to happen this year because Republicans and Conservatives appear to be coalescing behind Matthew A. Doheny, the Republican candidate who lost to Mr. Owens in 2010. Another Republican, Kellie Greene, is also seeking to run against Mr. Owens.

Representative Timothy H. Bishop, District 1

On Long Island, Mr. Bishop, a five-term Democrat, is girding for a rematch with Randy Altschuler, a successful Republican businessman who nearly defeated the congressman in 2010. Mr. Altschuler is an aggressive campaigner, having spent $2.9 million of his own money in 2010.

Mr. Altschuler got a lift recently when he received the endorsement of the Independence Party. That could make a difference, Republicans say, given that Mr. Altschuler lost to Mr. Bishop by a slim margin in the moderate district, which stretches across the eastern half of Long Island.

The Republicans

Representative Ann Marie Buerkle, District 24

Ms. Buerkle, a Republican, who won her seat in the Syracuse area in a big upset in 2010, is hoping to prove that her election was no fluke. But Republicans and Democrats alike say Ms. Buerkle, a Tea Party favorite, faces an uphill battle in the new district, which analysts say leans Democratic.

Ms. Buerkle is going up against the man she defeated in 2010, Dan Maffei, an aggressive campaigner who has already amassed about as much money as she has.

Representative Chris Gibson, District 19

The new Congressional map severely undercut Mr. Gibson, a first-term Republican who won in 2010. Mr. Gibson’s district went from being a Republican-leaning district to a swing district that Democrats believe they have a strong shot at picking up.

Mr. Gibson is facing a challenge by a political newcomer, Julian Schriebman, a former chairman of the Ulster County Democratic Party who is running on his experience as a federal prosecutor who tried terrorists.

Representative Nan Hayworth, District 18

In 2010, Ms. Hayworth, a first-term Republican from the suburbs north of New York City, won her seat with strong Tea Party support against a Democratic incumbent who fellow Democrats say underestimated her. But Democrats and independent analysts say she is vulnerable this year.

No fewer than four Democrats have lined up to run against her, including Sean Patrick Maloney, an aide to former Gov. Eliot Spitzer; Tom Wilson, the mayor of Tuxedo Park; Rich Becker, a town councilman in Cortlandt; and Matt Alexander, the mayor of Wappingers Falls.

Representative Michael G. Grimm, District 11

Mr. Grimm, a Republican who captured his seat in 2010 with strong support from the Tea Party, has found himself enmeshed in a controversy that Democrats say makes him vulnerable.

Mr. Grimm, who represents a district that includes Staten Island and part of western Brooklyn, has been facing intense scrutiny after The New York Times reported in January that his lead fund-raiser in the 2010 campaign was under investigation by the Federal Bureau of Investigation. Some donors said Mr. Grimm and the fund-raiser indicated that they would accept illegal donations. Republicans have stood behind Mr. Grimm, who has denied any wrongdoing.

Democrats, in the meantime, are getting behind Mark Murphy, the son of a former congressman, after failing to recruit Michael E. McMahon, the candidate who lost to Mr. Grimm in 2010.


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Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Republicans Examine Alternatives to Obama Health Plan

“If Obamacare goes away, it doesn’t mean that the problem of how you deliver health care affordably and get good access goes away,” Representative Greg Walden, Republican of Oregon, said. “Those are the issues that are back before us.”

Republicans say they will have to make good on their pledge to replace the health care law if the Supreme Court strikes down any significant parts of it. They remain optimistic about the possibility of a court victory, even as they begin thinking more seriously about what would follow.

“Our wheels are beginning to turn,” said Representative Fred Upton, Republican of Michigan and chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, which would have a large role in developing Republican alternatives to the Obama health care law.

Beyond some familiar ideas and slogans about “patient-centered health care,” the Republicans concede that they have far to go to come up with a comprehensive policy to fill the gap that could be left by a Supreme Court ruling this summer.

Their approach is likely to set aside universal health insurance coverage as the main objective. Instead, they would focus on lowering costs as “the overriding goal,” said Senator John Barrasso, Republican of Wyoming, a medical doctor and party spokesman on health issues.

“If you get the costs down, then you get more people with coverage,” Mr. Barrasso said.

Republicans are dusting off proposals that date back more than a decade: allowing individuals to buy health insurance across state lines, helping small businesses band together to buy insurance, offering generous tax deductions for the purchase of individual policies, expanding tax-favored health savings accounts and reining in medical malpractice suits.

Many of these ideas were included in a package offered by Republicans in November 2009 as an alternative to legislation pushed through the House by Democrats. The Congressional Budget Office found that the Republican proposal would have reduced health insurance premiums by 5 percent to 10 percent, compared with what they would otherwise have been.

The budget office said that the Republican proposal, offered by Representative John A. Boehner of Ohio, who is now the House speaker, would have provided coverage to 3 million people, leaving 52 million uninsured.

By contrast, the budget office estimates that the existing law will cover about 30 million people, leaving 26 million uninsured.

Emily S. Porter, a policy adviser to Mr. Boehner, said the House had voted 26 times to “repeal, de-fund or dismantle” the new health care law.

A ruling striking down the health law could pose future political problems for Republicans if Americans are still unable to find affordable health insurance or if policies provide inadequate coverage.

Republican lawmakers with experience on health care issues acknowledge that they will have to take action should the health law fall, and planning for the next steps has kicked into high gear. Several Republicans, like Representatives Michael C. Burgess of Texas and Tom Price of Georgia, are developing comprehensive alternatives, and they wish that more of their Republican colleagues would join these efforts.

“The status quo is unacceptable,” said Mr. Price, an orthopedic surgeon who is chairman of the House Republican Policy Committee. “Everybody agrees on that.”

In the spring issue of the journal National Affairs, two conservative policy analysts, James C. Capretta and Robert E. Moffit, lay out a road map in an article titled “How to Replace Obamacare.”

“Despite the widespread public antipathy toward the new health care law,” they write, “simply reverting to the pre-Obamacare status quo would be viewed by many Americans, perhaps even most, as unacceptable.”

Mr. Upton said Republicans were already looking at which parts of the Affordable Care Act they would preserve. The “easiest one,” he said, is the provision that allows young people up to the age of 26 to remain on their parents’ insurance. That option has proved popular and effective.

A more difficult question for Republicans is what to do about another popular provision of the law, which will prohibit insurers from denying coverage or charging higher premiums to people who are sick or have disabilities. Republicans favor incentives rather than a mandate to carry insurance, and they acknowledge that rates could soar unless they find ways to keep healthy people in the insurance pool.

“We’d have to get that balance right,” Mr. Upton said.


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Monday, April 9, 2012

Santorum Goes Bowling for Votes in Chilton, Wis.

Mr. Santorum dropped in to Pla-Mor Lanes here on Sunday afternoon, his fourth visit to a bowling alley in Wisconsin, as part of what appears to be a clear effort to drive home his working-class credentials to voters.

It is a comfortable setting for Mr. Santorum, who grew up bowling with his father and even took Bowling 101 for credit at Penn State. A week ago in Sheboygan, Wis., he struck political pay dirt at the lanes after rolling three strikes in a row.

“That’s a turkey,” he explained on the CBS News program “Face the Nation” the next day. “That tells you that you’ve got someone here who can relate to the voters of Wisconsin, just like those of us in western Pennsylvania who grew up in the bowling lanes.”

Mr. Santorum’s aides said he returned home to Pennsylvania excited by his performance and rummaged for his old bowling ball. He did not bring it back on the campaign trail, but he has added a bowling alley appearance almost every day. He has hit lanes in LaCrosse, Fond du Lac and here, where he rolled 10 frames before the Twilighters Couples League took over.

“It’s really meant to be a cultural story, who Rick really is,” said John Brabender, his chief strategist. “I think every presidential candidate wants people to get a peek into their real life so they can make a value judgment.”

It hardly needs to be said how sharp the contrast is with Mr. Romney, who has sometimes seemed out of touch in trying to appeal to working-class voters and has drawn ridicule by mentioning friendships with Nascar team owners and challenging Gov. Rick Perry of Texas to a $10,000 bet. And in a state like Wisconsin, where such voters can help turn elections, the visits seem to be paying off.

“I feel a common denominator with him,” said Carrie Pritchard, a 40-year-old homemaker who watched Mr. Santorum roll an Everyman’s score of 124 here. “If anybody can come to a bowling alley and hang out with everyone, I like that a lot.”

With reporters watching his bowling last week, Mr. Santorum caused a small fuss on the Internet by jokingly telling a young man not to pick up a pink ball — “we’re not going to let you do that” — since it was meant for women.

He has another bowling alley on his calendar for Monday, the day before Wisconsin voters go to the polls. The state has a broad conservative streak that Mr. Santorum would very much like to draw on to blunt Mr. Romney’s sense of inevitability. But polls show him trailing.

Over the weekend, two of the state’s leading Republicans, Representative Paul D. Ryan and Senator Ron Johnson, added their endorsements to a growing list of conservatives nationally who have rallied behind Mr. Romney, who leads Mr. Santorum more than two to one in the delegate race, according to The Associated Press.

In an appearance on the NBC News program “Meet the Press” on Sunday, Mr. Santorum said he would withdraw from the race if Mr. Romney reached the 1,144 delegates needed for the nomination, but he dismissed the idea that it would happen soon.

“Without a doubt, if he’s at that number, we’ll step aside,” he said. “But right now, he’s not there, he’s not even close to it.”

In an interview about his bowling background, Mr. Santorum referred to the famous book about bowling as a thread in the fabric of small-town America, “Bowling Alone,” by Robert D. Putnam, a professor of history at Harvard.

“ ‘Bowling Alone’ is about the breakdown of social capital in this country,” he said. “People used to come together in leagues and groups. Bowling is a social sport. You talk and eat and drink and are together. It’s a commitment to go every week. My dad bowled in a league, and I went with him. He was a lefty. We went on league night, it was part of my childhood.”

Presidential candidates have long embraced the symbolism of the bowling alley. From Richard M. Nixon to Barack Obama, they have visited the lanes to exhibit their common touch, not always successfully. Mr. Obama, as a candidate in 2008, rolled a 37 over seven frames. Vice President George Bush, campaigning for President Ronald Reagan, was filmed slipping and stumbling down the lane.

On Sunday, Mr. Santorum’s form was far smoother, though his results were not near his campaign-trail high score. “Not a particularly strong, but a winning game,” he pronounced. He was pleased to have beaten a campaign aide, his usual foe. “I now have a 3-2 advantage, so there you go,” he said.

Those in the know say Mr. Santorum shows talent, compared with other politicians. “George W. Bush, he had decent form, and Bill Clinton bowled a lot,” said Tom Clark, commissioner of the Professional Bowlers Association. “But Mr. Santorum, he knows how to bowl. With a few tips from a professional, he would probably be a high-level bowler.”

Trip Gabriel reported from Chilton, Wis., and Nick Corasaniti from New York. Katharine Q. Seelye contributed reporting from New York.


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‘Informal Advisers’ to Campaigns Re-emerge

Every four years, when a likely party nominee emerges, so do the informal advisers. Right now, Mitt Romney is swimming in them.

Charlie Black, a prototypical informal adviser and familiar Washington hybrid of campaign lifer, cable stalwart and super-lobbyist, is among those counseling Mr. Romney. Mr. Black, 64, is available for old-pro advice, back-channel information and whatever else the campaign happens to need. That is what informal advisers do.

What they must not do is any harm, and this can be tricky since they often embody the capital’s permanent lobbying and money class that many voters detest — and they are precisely the Beltway insiders that Mr. Romney, a self-fashioned outsider, says he disdains. Some of their past ties can be unsavory — Mr. Black’s lobbying clients, for instance, have included strongmen like Ferdinand Marcos of the Philippines and Mobutu Sese Seko of Zaire.

Front-running presidential campaigns and their informal advisers typically both benefit from their affiliation. Being publicly linked with Mr. Romney, the leading Republican presidential candidate, can impress clients — an important currency in Washington (informal advisers are almost never paid real currency by the campaigns, and usually don’t need the money anyway). In return, they can vouch for the candidate within the embattled-but-still-potent Republican establishment in Washington, providing a vital link to big-ticket donors, potential endorsers and policy eggheads.

“I have the best job I’ve had in any election,” said Mr. Black of his current role. An affable North Carolinian, he is a veteran of nine presidential campaigns dating back to Gerald Ford’s in 1976. “I have no responsibilities. I am not accountable for anything.”

Nice work if you can get it. And many, apparently, can.

Informal advisers often bloom in the spring, when the weather warms and the primary contests are winding down. The political calendar becomes safer for the likes of the congressman-turned-lobbyist Vin Weber, the senator-turned-lobbyist Jim Talent, the former governor and White House aide John Sununu, and all-purpose insiders like Mr. Black, Wayne Berman and Bay Buchanan — all of whom are advising the Romney campaign.

“I’m a big believer that campaigns are like a symphony orchestra,” said Ron Kaufman, a former Republican lobbyist and operative who is a regular presence at Mr. Romney’s side. “You have to add certain types of music at the right time. If you add it at the wrong time, it can destroy the whole piece. This is the right time.”

Mr. Kaufman is in an elevated club of unpaid adviser in that he has known Mr. Romney for years and travels frequently with him, just as he did when Mr. Romney ran in 2008. He is thus a step up from being an “informal adviser,” though that’s the title that the campaign seems to prefer. (Some others assisting Mr. Romney have souped-up titles like “special adviser,” “national finance co-chair” and so on.)

When Mr. Romney criticized his rival for the 2008 nomination, Senator John McCain, for his ties to lobbyists — including the ubiquitous Mr. Black — an Associated Press reporter confronted him about his own traveling buddy, Mr. Kaufman. Mr. Romney explained that he was just an informal adviser. “My campaign is not based on Washington lobbyists,” Mr. Romney said then. “I haven’t been in Washington. I don’t have lobbyists at my elbows that are arguing for one industry or another industry.”

Mr. Kaufman has since deregistered as a lobbyist. Mr. Black also sought to wipe the slate clean in 2008, announcing his “retirement” from lobbying after he joined the McCain campaign. His ”retirement” ended shortly after the McCain campaign did.

Today, Mr. Black is chairman of Prime Policy Group, a bipartisan lobbying firm — his clients include Walmart, Google and financial firms — and was the founder of its precursor, BKSH & Associates Worldwide. “After Obama won, I kiddingly told my Democratic partners, ‘Great, now I don’t have to go lobby the administration for four years,’ ” Mr. Black said. “I can play more golf.”

Kitty Bennett contributed research.


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Sunday, April 8, 2012

Republican Ambitions for Statewide Office Break Loose in Texas

Maybe you work in a big organization, with relatively young and healthy people at the top.

That’s just wonderful, unless your plans include upward mobility. You might as well be a Texas politician.

Democrats can’t move up the food chain in Texas until they’ve changed a political environment that will currently elect a Republican for every statewide office, whether or not that Republican is the best person for the job. It’s not the content of the candidate’s character that matters most — it’s the color of the partisan flag.

Republicans looking to move up face two obstacles: competition and a couple of stoppers at the top of the organizational chart. The competition is still there, what with a state full of Republicans and a political climate — see above — where moderates and independents who want to get into a high elected office often have to run as Republicans to succeed. That doesn’t appear to be changing right now.

But the stoppers — their names are Kay Bailey Hutchison and Rick Perry — might both be moving on, and the very idea of that animates Republican ambitions in Texas.

Ms. Hutchison, elevated to the United States Senate in a special election in 1993, isn’t seeking re-election. Mr. Perry could run for another term as governor in 2014. But the lines are already forming as if he won’t be on the ballot that year.

At least at the top, the 2014 ballot is as busy as the one for the current election year.

Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst is in the Republican primary race for Ms. Hutchison’s seat. Maybe he wins, maybe he loses, but that cautionary note didn’t stop anyone from expressing interest in the office he currently holds. Comptroller Susan Combs is interested. So are Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson and Agriculture Commissioner Todd Staples. State Representative Dan Branch, Republican of Dallas, is looking at it, too.

There’s another race for lieutenant governor in motion, too, based on the assumption that Mr. Dewhurst will win the Senate race. That would leave the 31-member Texas Senate with the happy chore of hoisting one of its own members into that office for the remaining two years of Mr. Dewhurst’s term. That intrigue is well under way, with some members angling for just an interim position and others thinking the winner of the inside race could have a shot at winning the job outright in the 2014 elections.

That triggers another round of conversations. Who would be the new comptroller, or land commissioner or agriculture commissioner should any or all of the current occupants dive into the race for lieutenant governor?

The political tribe is full of ambitious, risk-taking characters. The rest of us might not be thinking about this stuff, but they surely are.

A recent news blurb about Senator Glenn Hegar, Republican of Katy, stirred up another race. He’s been sounding out support for a run for comptroller should Ms. Combs run for something else or step aside. Some of his fellow Republicans thought he was considering Mr. Staples’s agriculture post.

The news prompted Representative Harvey Hilderbran, Republican of Kerrville, to let reporters and others know that he would be interested in Ms. Combs’s job. Mr. Hilderbran is chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, the arbiter of tax and revenue legislation. The overlap between the supplicants there and the supplicants to the comptroller is significant.

Mr. Hegar’s splash sent a ripple across the agriculture commissioner race. Former Representative Dan Gattis, Republican of Georgetown, isn’t exactly looking at it and isn’t exactly not looking. He said he would be interested, maybe, if Mr. Hegar was not. But he said he isn’t thinking about it and that there is a lot of time between now and then. And he said to stay in touch.

Wouldn’t want to get left out of the conversation, now that the org chart is in play.

Nothing is a lock, particularly with elections and other decisions in the way. Ms. Hutchison is leaving, but Mr. Dewhurst might not win and might not leave the Senate. Attorney General Greg Abbott might want to run for governor in 2014, but Mr. Perry hasn’t opened that door for him. And if Mr. Abbott doesn’t run for that, then the attorney general hopefuls — whoever they are — would be stuck.

Just like they are now.


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