Poll says half favor Medicaid expansion

As both sides of the political debate dig in for weeks, or perhaps months, of tough negotiations over Gov. Jan Brewer's proposal to expand Medicaid in Arizona, a statewide poll indicates that nearly half of likely voters support the plan but that more than a third have never heard of it.

The poll, paid for by pro- expansion forces, also said that almost half of Republicans surveyed back the idea of broadening health-care coverage to low-income and disabled Arizonans under federal health reform.

Those who identified themselves as "tea party" members, however, oppose the move by a 2-1 ratio, 45percent to 22percent.

The survey of 500 voters was conducted March19-21 by the national polling firm Public Opinion Strategies. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4percentage points.

The results were shown to The Arizona Republic this week as House GOP leaders finished a series of small meetings with the rank and file, showcasing a preliminary state budget plan that doesn't include Brewer's Medicaid proposal. The governor also has been meeting privately with GOP members who support her plan.

She wants to expand the state-federal program, which insures about 1.2million Arizonans, to provide health insurance to an additional 400,000 and bring in about $1.6billion in federal funding in fiscal 2015, the first full year of expansion. The state's additional matching funds would be raised through a tax on hospitals that treat Medicaid patients.

The Arizona Business Coalition, led by the Arizona Chamber of Commerce and the health-care industry, commissioned the poll and released portions of the survey, which lobbyist Jaime Molera said also included questions about Brewer's popularity.

Molera said results showed that the more voters know about the governor's Medicaid plan, the better they like it. He said the poll did not include "push" questions designed to lead respondents.

"It tells me exactly where we're at and what we need to do. … It tells me we're going in the right direction," he said.

Brewer's proposal has sharply divided her own Republican Party, and while most observers believe there are enough votes in the Legislature to win a simple majority, the politics are dicey enough that GOP backers want cover from more members before they vote for it.

Republican opponents, including the House and Senate leaders, are concerned that cost estimates of expansion are way off and that the federal government can't afford it and will eventually renege, leaving Arizona to pay or toss people off the rolls.

"My proposal is, you don't expand Medicaid," said Senate President Andy Biggs, R-Gilbert. "There are a million and one reasons I think this is a bad idea."

Among those surveyed, 47percent said they supported Brewer's expansion plan, 17percent opposed it, and 36percent had not heard of it.

The poll also indicated that support for expansion grows among people who say they've heard a lot about the plan.

Nearly three-fourths of those who say they're somewhat familiar with Brewer's plan are supportive.

And it also hinted at strong support for Brewer and her conservative credentials, which supporters say should comfort GOP lawmakers whom local party officials are threatening to unseat in the next election.

"Republicans are getting threatened that they're going to lose their seats," Molera said. "If Governor Brewer is behind something, and certainly behind them … having her behind you is going to be tremendously powerful."

In a separate question, survey respondents were given three choices: Restoring the voter-approved childless-adult program at a cost to the state of $450million; expanding Medicaid to cover more people at a state cost of $150million; and doing nothing to restore or expand the program. Fifty-two percent chose expansion, 21percent wanted to restore coverage for childless adults and 21percent wanted to do nothing.

Sen. Nancy Barto, R-Phoenix, said she remains concerned about the costs of expanding Medicaid and the accuracy of the state's estimates of how many people will qualify. And she questions why states or the federal government would want to expand Medicaid to people earning 133percent of the federal poverty level, or about $15,000 a year, instead of providing subsidies to help people find their own insurance on newly created online health exchanges.

"I still have some huge reservations because of the cost going forward," Barto said. "I just think we're not doing people any favors by pushing them onto a Medicaid system."

Rep. Heather Carter, R-Cave Creek, who is leading efforts to get expansion through the House, said she believes that the more lawmakers and their constituents learn about Medicaid expansion, the more supportive they will become.

Copyright 2012 The Arizona Republic|azcentral.com. All rights reserved.For more information about reprints & permissions, visit our FAQ's. To report corrections and clarifications, contact Standards Editor Brent Jones. For publication consideration in the newspaper, send comments to letters@usatoday.com. Include name, phone number, city and state for verification. To view our corrections, go to corrections.usatoday.com.

Posted

View the original article here