Will Latinos heed the siren song of a disingenuous GOP this fall?

In 2008, Latinos helped put Barack Obama in the White House.

In 2010, they helped the Democrats hold the Senate.

In 2012, they will again flex considerable muscle.

About 50,000 Latinos reach voting age every month in the United States. Arturo Vargas, executive director of the National Association of Latino Elected Officials, says his group is engaged in "robust" voter-registration efforts in Arizona, California, Texas, Florida and New York. He expects 12.2million Latinos to vote in November. That would be a 26 percent increase over 2008.

Large Latino populations in toss-up states such as Florida, Nevada and Colorado could make a difference in who occupies the White House next year. A Washington Post/ABC poll released last week shows President Obama and Mitt Romney tied among all registered voters at 47 percent each. But polls consistently show Obama well ahead of Romney among Latinos.

"You need the Hispanic vote to win the presidential election," says Vargas.

However, a recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News and Telemundo poll found only two-thirds of Latino voters were enthusiastic about voting this fall, compared with 89 percent of "tea party" supporters.

If Democrats take the Latino vote for granted, "they do so at their peril," Vargas told me.

If Republicans attract large Latino support, they will do so by inducing selective amnesia.

Both Obama and Romney spoke to NALEO's convention last month.

The president looked familiar and offered his usual upbeat message.

But GOP primary voters wouldn't have recognized the former governor of Massachusetts. It was a kinder, gentler Romney who invited Latinos to his party. He was not the same guy who told a primary-debate audience that Texas Gov. Rick Perry's support for in-state tuition for undocumented students was "a magnet to draw illegals." Not the guy who said Arizona had the right idea on immigration.

Yet even as Romney zips into his Much More Moderate Man costume for the general election, hard-line immigration messages are an integral part of GOP primary races. When speaking to its base, the GOP remains uninterested in the impact of ugly rhetoric on real people. Undocumented immigrants are fair game, and any collateral damage to citizen Latinos is tough luck.

This says a lot about the insincerity of the Republicans' appeal to Latino voters.

In Arizona's GOP Senate primary, Rep. Jeff Flake looks tough as he announces his approval of an ad that criticizes opponent Wil Cardon for employing "illegal aliens." After the primary, Flake will no doubt drop that offensive term -- just like he dropped his long-held support of comprehensive immigration reform in order to court the party faithful when he decided to run for the Senate.

Flake, who is expected to win the primary, will run in November against Democrat Richard Carmona, a former surgeon general in the George W. Bush administration and a Latino.

Vargas points out that Latinos don't automatically vote for Latinos, and he's right.

In 2008, Republican Brian Sandoval became Nevada's first Latino governor, with only 33 percent Latino vote. But, in that same election, support from 69 percent of Latino voters helped return Democrat Sen. Harry Reid to Washington, according to the Pew Research Center.

What's been consistent is Latino support for Democrats. Some Arizona Democrats hope Carmona's candidacy will drive Latino turnout and give Obama a reverse-coattail tug.

But Obama has some credibility problems with Latino voters, too. He did not keep his promise to make immigration reform a priority. It was only after earning a reputation as the Deportation King that he decided -- last summer -- to institute prosecutorial discretion in immigration cases. Last month, he offered an administrative version of the Dream Act. It was a calculated political play.

But Obama is also the first president to put a Latina on the Supreme Court, and his language and tone have been about promise, not poison. That says a lot about the sincerity of his commitment to honor diversity.

But is it enough? Like the rest of the country, Latinos list the economy as their top concern. Like the rest of the country, they are being asked to stick with this president through a painfully slow recovery. Unlike the rest of the country, they have seen people who look like them demonized by a Republican Party that now wants their support.

What they believe and how they vote will matter.

Reach Valdez at linda.valdez@arizonarepublic.com.

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