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Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Wisconsin voters keep Walker after recall election

PEWAUKEE, Wis. – The political themes in Wisconsin turned from divisive and contentious to healing and concensus after state voters decided to keep their embattled Republican governor, whose drive to end collective-bargaining rights for most state workers resulted in a caustic recall campaign.

In heavy voting, Gov. Scott Walker turned back the challenge from Democrat Tom Barrett. Walker had defeated Barrett in the 2010 election. By Darren Hauck, AP

In heavy voting, Gov. Scott Walker turned back the challenge from Democrat Tom Barrett. Walker had defeated Barrett in the 2010 election.

By Darren Hauck, AP

In heavy voting, Gov. Scott Walker turned back the challenge from Democrat Tom Barrett. Walker had defeated Barrett in the 2010 election.

In heavy voting, Gov. Scott Walker drew 53% of the vote to Democratic challenger Tom Barrett's 46% in Tuesday's recall election. The results were a virtual reprise of the 2010 election, when Walker defeated Barrett, Milwaukee's mayor, 52%-46%.

"Bringing our state together will take some time, but I hope to start right away," Walker said in a victory speech. "It is time to put our differences aside and figure out ways that we can move Wisconsin forward."

Barrett conceded in a telephone call to Walker. "Now we must look to the future," he said. "We are a state that has been deeply divided. And it is up to all of us, their side and our side, to listen to each other and to try to do what's right for everyone in this state."

The race was closely watched nationally for clues about fallout for other elected officials who cut workers' benefits to ease crunched budgets. There also could be implications in the presidential race between President Obama and Republican rival Mitt Romney in a state with 10 electoral votes that both would like to win.

By Tom Lynn, Getty Images

Tom Barrett speaks with members of the media after voting in Milwaukee on Tuesday.

Romney issued a statement saying Walker's victory "will echo beyond the borders of Wisconsin."

Walker "has shown that citizens and taxpayers can fight back — and prevail — against the runaway government costs imposed by labor bosses," Romney said. "Tonight voters said no to the tired, liberal ideas of yesterday, and yes to fiscal responsibility and a new direction."

Charles Lipson, a political science professor at the University of Chicago, said Walker's win is "a big deal" because "it squashes the Democrats in the most important by-election of the year."

The results also suggest "suggest that Republican and moderate Democratic governors can retain voter support even if they take on public-sector unions - and perhaps because they take on public-sector unions."

Lipson said Wisconsin's results spell "big trouble for unions," which have already lost power in private industry. He also believes some unions will blame Obama for the loss.

"The unions would rather keep Obama than deal with Romney, but the fizz has gone out of that champagne," he said.

Walker's win "suggests that Wisconsin's in play" in the presidential race, said Barry Burden, a University of Wisconsin-Madison political scientist. "This is a state that's competitive."

Other analysts said Walker and the state's Republican Party will be strengthened after winning the rematch with Barrett.

"He's empowered and emboldened" after withstanding the Democrats' efforts to recall him, said Kathleen Dolan, a political scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee.

"He withstood as much heavy artillery as any governor could," said Brandon Scholz, a Republican lobbyist and strategist based in Madison. Other elected officials, he said, "will take that lesson and apply it in their state" with austerity proposals.

"People are going to realize the presidential race and U.S. Senate race and the Legislature are up for grabs," says Paul Maslin, a Madison-based Democratic pollster.

The recall election was the culmination of a bitter battle that began in February 2011, when Walker announced his plan to erase a $137 million budget shortfall in part by requiring state workers to give up collective-bargaining rights and pay more for health insurance and pension benefits.

Recalls of four Republican state senators also were on Tuesday's ballot. The results in those races could shift control of the Senate, which is now divided 16-16.

Walker's proposals triggered massive protests in the state Capitol in Madison and prompted 14 Democratic state senators to leave the state for three weeks in an ultimately failed attempt to prevent passage of Walker's legislation. He signed it into law in March 2011.

Before the vote, the state's sharp divide was evident in the Democratic stronghold of Madison. The house across from the governor's official residence displayed a "We Stand With Scott Walker" sign. The house two doors down: "Tom Barrett for Governor."

"Unfortunately, Wisconsin has become in some ways a microcosm of the partisan wars that have been raging nationally," said Dolan, the political scientist.

Regardless of the election outcome, she said, it will take time for the state to recover from the divisive debate and revive bipartisan spirit in the Legislature. "We really are at a place of sort of paralysis," Dolan said.

The amount of out-of-state money flowing to the campaigns here and the appearances of high-profile supporters of Walker and Barrett were evidence of the race's national overtones. More than $62 million was spent by the candidates and outside groups. Much of the $30 million raised by Walker came from outside the state. Barrett has spent about $4 million; most of his donors live in Wisconsin.

Former president Bill Clinton campaigned with Barrett, and fellow Republican governors Chris Christie of New Jersey and Bobby Jindal of Louisiana appeared with Walker.

No Republican presidential candidate has won Wisconsin since Ronald Reagan in 1984. Obama defeated Republican John McCain here in 2008, 56%-42%.

Scholz, the Republican strategist, saw Walker's victory as "a significant blow" weakening the clout of the labor unions that provide campaign cash and infrastructure for Democratic presidential candidates.

Dolan cautioned against reading too many presidential implications into Wisconsin's political fight. "Will Obama's chance of winning Wisconsin be made harder if Walker wins? Sure, maybe a little," she said. "But what's going on here is so episodic and so idiosyncratic."

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