Wisconsin recall vote may be lift for Romney

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker provided a template for Republicans looking ahead to the presidential race with his victory in Tuesday's recall election: big money, powerful organization and enormous enthusiasm among his base. Can Mitt Romney match that in November?

Both sides will examine the results for clues as to whether Wisconsin, which hasn't voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1984 but has been fiercely competitive in two of the last three elections, will again become a true battleground. If it does become as competitive as it was in 2000 and 2004, the electoral map will become far more challenging for President Barack Obama.

In defeating Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, Walker dealt a sizable blow to Wisconsin Democrats, progressives and the ranks of organized labor, who together threw everything they could into the effort to send the governor home before his term was half over. Whether he significantly damaged the president, who kept his distance from the contest, is less clear.

Romney was quick to seize on the results and claim broader implications. In a statement issued Tuesday by his campaign, he said, "Tonight's results will echo beyond the borders of Wisconsin. Gov. Walker has shown that citizens and taxpayers can fight back -- and prevail -- against the runaway government costs imposed by labor bosses."

Obama had no comment on the outcome.

Romney can hope to replicate Walker's model in two areas. The first is money. Walker raised more than $30million for his recall campaign, with some from large donations that exceeded the normal limits because of the laws governing recall elections. Barrett raised $4million. Romney won't raise significantly more than Obama. But the presumptive GOP nominee can count on Republican super PACs to give him an overall advantage.

Obama began the campaign more than a year ago amid assumptions that he would easily raise more than his Republican opponent. But Obama advisers worry that they will be heavily outspent by GOP super PACs. Other than the state of the economy, that potential funding disparity is the campaign's biggest concern. Money may not decide the election in the end, but Romney and the Republicans currently appear to have the edge.

Walker's victory was a party victory. The Republican Governors Association spent more than $9million on his behalf. The Republican National Committee, led by Reince Priebus, a former Wisconsin GOP chairman, and the state Republican Party combined for a total effort in mobilizing voters. All that paid dividends in defining Barrett and building an organization that proved superior to what many Democrats considered a fine get-out-the-vote operation of their own that was run by their party and the unions.

Democrats were divided over the wisdom of going ahead with the recall, although, given the determination by their rank and file in Wisconsin, there was no way to stop it from happening. Obama campaign officials worried that it would take resources and energy away from the presidential race. The Democratic National Committee drew criticism for not backing Barrett more aggressively. Had the outcome been closer, the president would have faced criticism for not campaigning on behalf of Barrett.

DNC Chairman Debbie Wasserman Schultz of Florida said before the election that the recall would be a "dry run" for the Democrats' ground operation for November. What Republicans showed in Wisconsin on Tuesday was their ability to run a superior voter-mobilization operation, at least in this one election. Democrats doubt they can do that elsewhere. Obama officials say they see little evidence that Romney is as well-organized as they are in the battleground states. But the Wisconsin effort gives the GOP something to build on.

Walker's victory was also very much a personal one. To Wisconsin Republicans, Walker is a hero, a rock star. Now, he may be one nationally as well. When he appeared at a GOP dinner with Romney and then-GOP candidate Rick Santorum a few days before the Wisconsin primaries in April, it was clear that he was the most popular politician in the room by far. Wisconsin Republicans may admire Romney, but the enthusiasm for him doesn't match the affection for Walker. He will need some of that Walker enthusiasm if he hopes to win the state in November.

There is one other important element to the Walker template for Republicans -- conviction. Walker took a controversial position in going after labor unions as part of his overall effort to deal with the state's fiscal deficit. In the face of a huge backlash, he stood behind what he did. He admitted he hadn't thought enough about how to sell his program and paid a price for it that won't be erased by Tuesday's victory. But he did not back away from the changes he implemented.

That makes Walker the kind of conviction politician that many Republicans want in their leaders today -- a model emulated by some of the other Republican governors around the country. It is what many Republican voters thought was missing in Romney during the primaries. Republicans in Wisconsin were willing to go to almost any lengths to keep Walker in office. It's questionable that they will do as much for Romney. His hope still rests on his ability to fuel and channel the anti-Obama anger in the Republican base as the chief motivator in November.

If the results Tuesday buoyed Republican hopes for November, the exit polls offered some counterevidence that Obama may still hold some advantages in Wisconsin as the campaign heats up. When voters who turned out Tuesday were asked how they would vote in the presidential election, Obama ran ahead of Romney, although his margin was short of the 14 points by which he won the state in 2008.

Overall, about 17 percent of Walker voters said they would support the president in the fall. Well over half were self-described independents -- disproportionately more than in the overall electorate on Tuesday -- and more than half were moderates. Overall, independents made up a larger share of the electorate Tuesday, and Walker won them, but by a somewhat smaller margin than in 2010.

A plurality of Wisconsin voters Tuesday also judged Obama superior to Romney in his ability to help the middle class. The president held a narrow advantage on who would likely be better at improving the economy. A memo from the Obama campaign's Wisconsin director that was issued overnight noted, "There hasn't been a single poll that shows Romney ahead of the president in Wisconsin."

Walker and the president actually share something in common. The governor did not back down from the most controversial elements of his platform, but he sought to avoid throwing them back in the faces of the voters. Instead, his main message was similar to what the president has been using as he campaigns around the country: We've made progress, things are a little better, don't go back to where we were before I came into office.

Tuesday's recall was described by partisans on both sides as the second-most-important U.S. election this year, just behind the presidential race. It lived up to those expectations, and Walker exceeded expectations with his victory. It was not a referendum on the president. That election is coming soon enough.

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