When it makes its debut Wednesday in 10 swing states as the centerpiece of a $25 million campaign, it is expected to become one of the most heavily broadcast political commercials of this phase of the general election. Yet what Mr. McCarthy and Crossroads have produced is not the kind of searing denunciation of President Obama that their track records would suggest. More soft-pedal than Swift Boat, the 60-second advertisement, complete with special effects, is a deeply researched, delicately worded story of a struggling family; its relatively low-key tone is all the more striking, coming at a point in the campaign when each side is accusing the other of excessive negativity. Behind the story of the ad’s creation rests one of the greatest challenges for Republicans in this election: how to develop a powerful line of attack against a president who remains well liked even by people who are considering voting against him. The concept for the newest advertisement and even some of the lines in the script were culled directly from focus groups of undecided and sometimes torn voters that were held over nearly a year. As Crossroads strategists would learn after 18 different focus groups and field tests, from Missouri to Colorado to Ohio to Florida, the harshest anti-Obama jabs backfire with many Americans. Middle-of-the-road voters who said they thought the country was on the wrong track were unmoved when they heard arguments that the president lacks integrity. And they did not buy assertions that he is a rabid partisan with a radical liberal agenda that is wrecking America. “They are not interested in being told they made a horrible mistake,” said Steven J. Law, president of Crossroads GPS and the affiliated “super PAC,” American Crossroads. “The disappointment they’re now experiencing has to be handled carefully.” In interviews with voters, Crossroads strategists picked up on some common sentiments that they concluded could provide a clear rationale for voters to deny Mr. Obama a second term. Some said they felt that the president was an eloquent communicator, but that his actions had failed to live up to his words. They said they thought the country’s budget problems had gotten out of hand, yet the government kept spending recklessly — like someone with maxed-out credit cards. And they reported being worried that their children would not have the same opportunities to get ahead as they had. All these thoughts made their way into Mr. McCarthy’s script. But one exchange in particular, at a focus group in St. Louis in October, gave Mr. McCarthy and Mr. Law the idea for the ad, which they named, innocuously enough, “Basketball.” A woman described how her 32-year-old son, burdened by student loans and unable to make ends meet, had moved back home. “That particular group had several women who basically told the same story,” Mr. McCarthy said. The script, which he started writing that day in October, features a composite character from the focus groups. “Kind of like President Obama’s girlfriends,” he noted dryly, referring to Mr. Obama’s acknowledgment that a girlfriend he referred to in his book “Dreams From My Father” was a composite of several women he knew. The ad opens with a woman talking about her family’s financial woes. “I always loved watching the kids play basketball,” the actress says, her voice heavy with worry as she glances out at her backyard. “I still do, even though things have changed.” Her face quickly morphs into an old woman’s. Her skin is wrinkled, her hair gray. She explains how her adult children have moved back into the house because they are unable to find jobs. And she is not sure she can afford to retire now. “I supported President Obama because he spoke so beautifully,” she says. “He promised change. But things changed for the worse.” Ben LaBolt, a spokesman for the Obama campaign, dismissed the commercial’s premise. “However many millions Mitt Romney’s special interest allies spend won’t change the facts,” he said, noting that the economy has strengthened considerably since 2008. In previous presidential campaigns, Republicans have relished mocking their Democratic opponents. They made commercials with video of Michael S. Dukakis riding in a tank wearing an oversize helmet, leaving viewers with images that many thought made him look silly and unpresidential.
