COMMENTARY | South Carolina Republicans have completed their "first in the South" primary by giving New Gingrich a campaign-saving victory as the Los Angeles Times reports. Throughout the last 30-plus years, South Carolina has picked the eventual Republican nominee. We will see if the trend continues. Let's take a look at each candidate and see where they stand moving forward after South Carolina.
Newt Gingrich
Gingrich is certainly the big winner. The conservatives are desperate to unite behind a "not Romney." It looks like they did that with Gingrich. The national polls are also moving toward Gingrich and away from Romney. South Carolina Republicans at least want this race to go on longer to decide a winner. If Gingrich stays disciplined and on message, he can win the nomination and beat President Barack Obama. Since we have three winners in three contests so far, Florida on Jan. 31 may be the critical primary this time to decide the nominee.
Mitt Romney
Mitt Romney looks anything but a certain nominee after South Carolina. A win here would have practically clinched the nomination. South Carolina confirmed Romney has a ceiling of 30 percent support. Now that the race has narrowed to four, it will be tough for Romney to win. When they thought about Romneycare, abortion and taxes, 70 percent of South Carolina voters (including me) could not support him. The voters in South Carolina are looking for a conservative and they know Romney is not. Romney has lost his status as inevitable front-runner. South Carolina has made sure this will be a long campaign fight.
Rick Santorum
Santorum finished a distant third. South Carolina made Gingrich the not-Romney conservative. While Santorum will head to Florida, I just do not see him becoming the "not Romney." I see his win in Iowa as a fluke given that he spent so much of 2011 there. He does not have the money and the organization to make a credible run through Super Tuesday on March 6. I do not see Santorum in the race without a win in Florida
Ron Paul
In spite of his fourth-place finish, I am pleased with my vote for Ron Paul and his campaign for life and liberty. Paul's campaign is forcing the party back to limited government. Paul, because of the proportion delegate apportionment this year, will have many delegates at the convention and will be able to steer the party platform toward his libertarian views. Paul cannot be ignored anymore; the Republicans risk losing the election by alienating Paul voters.
Republicans, buckle up for the nomination ride. It is going to be a long one.
