COMMENTARY | Political strategy is such that tactics are always used to advance the overall agenda or strategy of the party. When tactics or a particular tactic is not working, then said tactic (or tactics) is altered or ditched in favor of a more viable tactic. Since a political party's primary overall strategy is to stay in power in order to promote their own -- as opposed to an opponent's -- agenda, the altering of tactics is often done by engaging in increased compromise, diplomacy, and leverage, so as not to lose the particular goal of that tactic altogether. Such an alteration in tactics for Republicans concerning the debt ceiling may be in order, especially since a recent Pew Research Poll notes that most would blame Republicans if the debt ceiling were allowed to remain static and the federal government was forced to shut down.
According to the poll, 42 percent of Americans would blame the Republican Party if a compromise is not reached on the debt ceiling impasse by August 2, the date that Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has said is the absolute latest he can juggle marginal and postpone-able programs in order to keep the country running without borrowing money to do so. After August 2, the federal government will go into shutdown mode, with all nonessential programs closing down for lack of funding. Another 33 percent of the poll respondents say they would blame President Obama and the Democratic Party; 13 percent said that they would blame neither or both; and 11 percent said they did not know.
With independents in a statistical tie (36 percent to 34 percent would blame Republicans over Democrats), it is even more telling is that more Republicans would blame their own party if a compromise isn't reached. Members of the GOP would blame Democrats more (58 percent) but 22 percent would blame the members of their own party. The Democrats are more lopsided, with 72 percent of their number blaming Republicans while only 15 percent would blame Democrats.
Setting aside who would actually be to blame or if both parties should share responsibility should a compromise not be reached and the government be forced to shut down in August, the perception of who is to blame could have devastating consequences. It did in 1996 when a Republican Congress refused to raise the debt ceiling, forcing the government to shut down for the second time within a few months. The subsequent public backlash was far fewer Republicans holding public office after the Mid-Term elections. And it could happen again.
Since Republicans have recently embraced fiscal federal responsibility and national debt management, they seem to have taken a increasingly hard line on borrowing for government expenditures, not to mention the House of Representatives' stance as soon as Republicans took over in January 2011 to not allow legislation that costs taxpayers to not already have a built-in payment system included in the legislation. However, the debt ceiling is a limit set in place by Congress several decades ago that was hoped would curb government spending. It requires that Congress agree to raise the acquired debt limit in order for the federal government to borrow money in which to operate beyond its revenue intake.
Simply put: Republicans could find themselves blamed again. Talks are sluggish to stalled in Washington at present, according to NPR. House Minority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) walked away from negotiations Thursday, reportedly over talks of raising taxes (actually allowing tax breaks to expire) which Republicans feel is a deal breaker.
But shouldering the blame for a government shutdown just might cost Republicans control of Congress in 2012 if the backlash of public displeasure is strong enough. Then the recently embraced agenda of federal spending responsibility might be compromised as well. Besides, where is the responsibility in allowing loans to be defaulted on, not to mention allowing the all too possible damage to the strength of the dollar, which could find itself easily replaced as the world's most used reserve currency?
If the overall strategy of the Republican Party is to stay in power in order to enact their agenda, given the current public mood, some form of compromise on the debt ceiling needs to be considered. Alteration of tactics are often crucial in allowing the overall strategy to remain in play. Choosing a hard line could very well be costly for the Republicans, not to mention the entire nation with regard to its credit status and its financial obligations.
As more Americans become educated as to the what the debt ceiling is, the Republicans might find themselves in an even worse position. Thus far, most of the Republican support has been driven by fear of the rising national debt and equating not raising the debt ceiling to the U. S. not incurring more debt -- which is not the way either entity actually works. The national debt rises daily simply on the accumulation of interest on the loans already taken. The debt ceiling is just a legal limit the government imposed upon itself to curb government spending through profligate borrowing. It also imposes the added regulation that, without Congressional approval, more money cannot be borrowed. And since the government operates on borrowed money (because it spends more than it takes in via revenue sources -- where all those tax breaks and loopholes come back to haunt), Congressional approval of raising the debt ceiling is a must for the government to maintain its normal day-to-day operations.
Republicans at present are attempting to leverage a possible raising of the debt ceiling against fiscal spending cuts as well as future spending cuts and program defundings. Democrats have grudgingly allowed a few possible budgetary spending cuts but also want to reinstate tax breaks and eliminate tax loopholes that have decreased revenue over the past decade. The parties are at virtual impasse.
And the clock is winding down to a government shutdown. In the end, both sides will most likely give a little in order to reach compromise. However, if public sentiment continues to poll against the GOP as to blameworthiness, the legislators might want to begin looking into a little tactical correction.
