A Sense of Waiting for Godot for Texas Democrats

We continue our Presidential Geography series, a one-by-one examination of the peculiarities that drive the politics in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Here is a look at Texas. FiveThirtyEight spoke with James R. Henson, the director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin; Robert D. Miller, the chairman of the Public Law Group at Locke Lord L.L.P.; and Steve H. Murdock, a professor in the department of sociology at Rice University in Houston.

“It’s only a matter of time.”

For more than a decade, that thought has provided solace to the out-of-power Democrats who dream of turning Texas blue, much like it was before Ronald Reagan won the state in 1980. The appeal for Democrats is obvious. If President Obama, for example, were somehow able to carry Texas and its 38 electoral votes, the electoral math would become very difficult for Mitt Romney.

A Democratic-leaning Texas may seem like a dream, but for years such a shift has appeared almost inevitable. The Hispanic population in Texas (38 percent) is the second largest in the nation, and it is growing quickly. The African-American population (12 percent) has kept pace with the state’s overall growth. And non-Hispanic whites have been shrinking as a share of the population.

In fact, sometime after 2000, non-Hispanic whites became a minority in the state. They now make up just 45 percent of the population, making Texas the only majority minority state that reliably votes Republican.

Yet, for all the talk of a politically competitive state, the Republican grip on Texas has never loosened.

“We’ve had this discussion for 10 years now, and nothing has changed,” Mr. Miller said.

“There’s been a ‘Waiting for Godot’ nature in terms of Democrats and Latinos here,” Mr. Henson said.

All 29 statewide elective offices are held by Republicans, and Texas Democrats have been left with a series of if-onlys. If only the local party were better organized. If only national Democrats invested more money in the state. If only we could get a charismatic Hispanic candidate on the ballot. And, the most fundamental “if only” of them all: if only Hispanic turnout were stronger.

Poor turnout has dulled the impact of the state’s Hispanic population at the ballot box. Hispanics may make up 38 percent of the population, but they have never exceeded 20 percent of the electorate in presidential elections, according to exit polls.

“Latino turnout is even lower here than it is in a lot of other places,” Mr. Henson said.

Hispanic turnout is creeping up incrementally, but the non-Hispanic white vote in Texas has become overwhelmingly Republican.

The political landscape in Texas is relatively straightforward. The Democratic strongholds are limited to the major cities — Austin, El Paso, Dallas and to a lesser extent Houston and San Antonio — and the heavily Hispanic Rio Grande Valley.

Republicans are dominant everywhere else, from suburbs to small towns to ranches and farms.

Each of the main cities has a different feel and contributes something unique to the state’s economy. Houston is a center for health care and energy jobs. Austin, the capital, has a flourishing music scene and is a major center for technology start-ups. Dallas has a large African-American community (25 percent) and a little bit of everything economically.

Outside of the cities, Texas has several distinct regions. East Texas is much like northern Louisiana. It is mostly rural, religious and conservative. The Panhandle is also deeply conservative, but feels more like the Great Plains, Mr. Henson said, and includes a streak of libertarianism.

West Central Texas around Midland and Odessa is the chief oil-producing region. Over all, Texas is among the nation’s top energy-producing states, particularly in oil, natural gas and wind. The state’s booming energy industries have helped its economy weather the Great Recession relatively well.

The Bellwether: Tarrant County

The Dallas-Fort Worth area is home to over six million people, and the two cities are often grouped together. But Tarrant County, which is home to Fort Worth, and Dallas County have separate identities. Dallas is more diverse than Fort Worth, a former cattle town that now revolves around industries like defense.

Non-Hispanic whites are still a slim majority in Tarrant County, which helps make it a much better statewide bellwether than Dallas County. Tarrant County exactly matched the statewide vote in 2008, and was just 1 percentage point more Republican in both 2004 and 2000.

The Bottom Line

There is little doubt that Mr. Romney will carry Texas. He is a 99 percent favorite in the state, according to the current FiveThirtyEight forecast.

But the long-term trend seems equally clear. Despite poor turnout, the Hispanic share of the electorate has steadily climbed, from 7 percent in 1984 to 20 percent in 2008, according to exit polls.

At the same time, the non-Hispanic white vote has consistently fallen. In 1984 it was 78 percent; by 2008 it was 63 percent.

The larger question is not if Texas will become more competitive, but when, both Mr. Henson and Mr. Miller said. And that largely depends on whether Democrats can improve turnout among Hispanics. They have a few things working against them.

First, the Texas Democratic Party has been out of power for a long time, with few elections to truly contest. “The party in the state has really atrophied,” Mr. Henson said.

Second, Hispanic culture in Texas has so far not placed a high value on participating in the electoral process, Mr. Miller said.

Even if Texas Hispanics do start punching their weight, the Republicans could make efforts to win their support. Partisan allegiances among Hispanics could become more balanced.

Those obstacles notwithstanding, there is no doubt that as the minority population in Texas has grown, so too has the potential for the state to become less firmly Republican. And there are already signs of a possible future: Mayor Julián Castro of San Antonio, a rising star in Democratic politics, gave the keynote address at the national convention in Charlotte, N.C.

But that Democratic comeback — whether led by Mr. Castro or someone else — may still be years away. In the meantime, Democrats will have to continue to wait.

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Tea Party's battle in Texas shows it's 'maturing'

DALLAS – The Tea Party is trading in town halls and tricorn hats for phone banks and voter-turnout drives.

By Johnny Hanson, AP

Sarah Palin, far left, stands with her husband, Todd, and Ted Cruz, Texas candidate for the U.S. Senate, and his wife, Heidi, on Friday in The Woodlands, Texas.

By Johnny Hanson, AP

Sarah Palin, far left, stands with her husband, Todd, and Ted Cruz, Texas candidate for the U.S. Senate, and his wife, Heidi, on Friday in The Woodlands, Texas.

The conservative movement that captured the nation's attention in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis and helped fuel Republican 2010 election victories across the country is transitioning from a protest movement to one more targeted, local, and with less theatrical engagement.

"I think it's a maturing of the Tea Party movement," said Matt Kibbe, president of FreedomWorks, a fiscally conservative advocacy group that has worked closely with the Tea Party.

Activists have been scrapping efforts such as the confrontational town-hall-style meetings that defined the summer of 2010 in favor of more traditional political engagement in local races, particularly in nominating processes to boost candidates they support.

"It's been pretty dramatic, but it's been so systematic that I'm not sure that people noticed," Kibbe said.

One of the biggest tests of strength for the movement's ability to upend the GOP establishment in 2012 is Tuesday, when formerly long-shot candidate attorney Ted Cruz is favored by election analysts to upset Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst in the Senate Republican primary runoff in a race to replace retiring GOP Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison.

Cruz started the race underfunded, lesser-known and without the support of the Texas Republican Party establishment, including Gov. Rick Perry. Endorsements from GOP activists, such as former Alaska governor Sarah Palin and Sens. Jim DeMint of South Carolina and Rand Paul of Kentucky, brought in national attention and money. That was coupled with on-the-ground organizing support from local Tea Party activists such as Toby Marie Walker, and it has transformed Cruz to the odds-on favorite.

"This race with Ted Cruz has sat close to my heart," said Walker, 45, who volunteers full-time for the Waco Tea Party. She said Tea Party activists were discouraged at the onset of the race that no candidate could overcome Dewhurst's money juggernaut.

By Danese Kenon, AP

Jean Johannigman sings "The Star-Spangled Banner" at the beginning of the FreedomWorks rally for GOP Senate candidate Richard Mourdock on May 5 in Indianapolis.

After Dewhurst failed to win more than 50% of the vote in the May primary, conservative activists were emboldened for the runoff election, knowing that such races traditionally have lower turnout and tend to favor the candidate whose supporters are most engaged. "We have an election cycle under our belts, and we're more attuned to how the game is played," Walker said.

Cruz's youth — he's 41 — and biography — he's the son of a Cuban-American father who was imprisoned in Cuba before fleeing to Texas — have drawn comparisons to Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., a Tea Party-favored candidate in 2010.

"I think Ted Cruz is a superstar for the conservative movement," said Torin Archbold, 48, a car salesman from Austin.

Republicans control the House of Representatives, but Democrats control the Senate 53-47, which has led activists to focus on Senate primaries as part of a two-part effort to get GOP control of the chamber and populate it with more conservative Republicans. The results have been mixed.

In Indiana, Richard Mourdock handily defeated incumbent Sen. Richard Lugar by running to his right, but Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, waged a successful re-election campaign against a Tea Party-supported opponent. Senate GOP establishment candidates Heather Wilson of New Mexico and George Allen of Virginia likewise won primaries despite challenges from the right. In Nebraska, Tea Party allies were divided in the primary, opening up a surprise victory for Deb Fischer, who was not as closely identified with the Tea Party but secured an endorsement from Palin in the closing days of the race.

FreedomWorks for America, a political organizing group associated with the Tea Party, has endorsed in upcoming primaries businessman John Brunner, who is in a three-way GOP primary to take on Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo.; Rep. Jeff Flake in Arizona; and businessman Eric Hovde who is running against establishment favorite, former governor Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin.

The endorsements underscore how the Tea Party movement remains loosely organized and often contradictory. For instance, although FreedomWorks has endorsed Brunner, Tea Party Express, another activist group, has endorsed Brunner's primary opponent, Sarah Steelman. In Arizona, Flake is facing wealthy businessman Wil Cardon, who is self-funded and challenging Flake's Tea Party credentials.

"It's a principled movement, but there's a lot of differences," Walker said. "Some work well with their Republican Party, others want nothing to do with their Republican Party. Some Tea Parties are all wrapped up in Ron Paul; some focus on things like constitutional teachings … but they are all much more engaged in the political process."

DeMint, a lawmaker popular among Tea Party supporters, said he views the phrase "Tea Party" in more symbolic terms. "The Tea Party is kind of a visual representation of a lot of citizen activism."

If Cruz wins Tuesday, he is all but guaranteed to win in November in Republican-leaning Texas. Mourdock is favored to win, as is Fischer, who is running for a Democratic-held seat and would provide a Republican pickup. The eventual Republican nominees in Missouri and Wisconsin will also likely be in competitive races for Democratic-held seats.

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In a U.S. Senate Runoff, Texas Republicans Spend to Agree

On the Republican side, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and Ted Cruz, the former state solicitor general, agree on virtually every issue that could come before them in the Senate. But more than $40 million has been spent by the campaigns and outside groups trying to convince voters that the race provides an opportunity to upend all that is wrong with the federal government. If the wrong candidate wins, each side insists, the opportunity will have been wasted.

“Ted is being viciously attacked by the establishment because he will bring real change to Washington,” former Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska says in a robocall for Mr. Cruz.

In Gov. Rick Perry’s latest advertisement for Mr. Dewhurst, he counters: “David’s the one candidate best prepared to make conservative change happen in Washington. Don’t let anyone tell you different.”

The Democratic candidates, former State Representative Paul Sadler of Henderson and Grady Yarbrough, a former teacher, have significant differences on the economy and illegal immigration, but they are struggling to draw the attention of voters or donors, as the campaigns’ spending is well under $1 million. Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994.

Mr. Sadler said that those who dismiss Texas as a “red state” are ignoring how far to the right Mr. Dewhurst and Mr. Cruz are. Democrats have the chance to present a viable alternative, he said.

“The Republicans are singing the same hymnal,” Mr. Sadler said. “The real debate begins on Aug. 1, when there’s a contrast of substantive issues.”

Mr. Yarbrough agreed that Democrats are being underestimated. He has spent much of his savings on broadcasting television advertisements aimed at black and Hispanic voters.

“They’re the ones that put me in the runoff, and if I go to those voters and plead our case, I am sure they will come out again,” Mr. Yarbrough said. “I’m taking a $75,000 to $80,000 gamble here.”

Although the two races are drawing significantly different levels of interest, both have turned on whether the voters should value legislative experience.

Mr. Sadler says that only those who have held elected office are qualified to join the Senate. Mr. Dewhurst does not go quite as far but stresses his history of passing budgets and cutting taxes.

“You could argue that there’s not that much difference between us, other than that I’ve done all the things Mr. Cruz says that he wants to do,” Mr. Dewhurst said.

Both Mr. Cruz and Mr. Yarbrough dismiss “career politicians” as part of the problem in Washington.

“All over the country, Americans are fed up with the same tired establishment incumbents that don’t believe in anything,” Mr. Cruz told voters in Willis this month. “There is a tidal wave sweeping this country as Americans are looking for new leaders who will stand and fight and get back to the Constitution.”

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Republican Ambitions for Statewide Office Break Loose in Texas

Maybe you work in a big organization, with relatively young and healthy people at the top.

That’s just wonderful, unless your plans include upward mobility. You might as well be a Texas politician.

Democrats can’t move up the food chain in Texas until they’ve changed a political environment that will currently elect a Republican for every statewide office, whether or not that Republican is the best person for the job. It’s not the content of the candidate’s character that matters most — it’s the color of the partisan flag.

Republicans looking to move up face two obstacles: competition and a couple of stoppers at the top of the organizational chart. The competition is still there, what with a state full of Republicans and a political climate — see above — where moderates and independents who want to get into a high elected office often have to run as Republicans to succeed. That doesn’t appear to be changing right now.

But the stoppers — their names are Kay Bailey Hutchison and Rick Perry — might both be moving on, and the very idea of that animates Republican ambitions in Texas.

Ms. Hutchison, elevated to the United States Senate in a special election in 1993, isn’t seeking re-election. Mr. Perry could run for another term as governor in 2014. But the lines are already forming as if he won’t be on the ballot that year.

At least at the top, the 2014 ballot is as busy as the one for the current election year.

Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst is in the Republican primary race for Ms. Hutchison’s seat. Maybe he wins, maybe he loses, but that cautionary note didn’t stop anyone from expressing interest in the office he currently holds. Comptroller Susan Combs is interested. So are Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson and Agriculture Commissioner Todd Staples. State Representative Dan Branch, Republican of Dallas, is looking at it, too.

There’s another race for lieutenant governor in motion, too, based on the assumption that Mr. Dewhurst will win the Senate race. That would leave the 31-member Texas Senate with the happy chore of hoisting one of its own members into that office for the remaining two years of Mr. Dewhurst’s term. That intrigue is well under way, with some members angling for just an interim position and others thinking the winner of the inside race could have a shot at winning the job outright in the 2014 elections.

That triggers another round of conversations. Who would be the new comptroller, or land commissioner or agriculture commissioner should any or all of the current occupants dive into the race for lieutenant governor?

The political tribe is full of ambitious, risk-taking characters. The rest of us might not be thinking about this stuff, but they surely are.

A recent news blurb about Senator Glenn Hegar, Republican of Katy, stirred up another race. He’s been sounding out support for a run for comptroller should Ms. Combs run for something else or step aside. Some of his fellow Republicans thought he was considering Mr. Staples’s agriculture post.

The news prompted Representative Harvey Hilderbran, Republican of Kerrville, to let reporters and others know that he would be interested in Ms. Combs’s job. Mr. Hilderbran is chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, the arbiter of tax and revenue legislation. The overlap between the supplicants there and the supplicants to the comptroller is significant.

Mr. Hegar’s splash sent a ripple across the agriculture commissioner race. Former Representative Dan Gattis, Republican of Georgetown, isn’t exactly looking at it and isn’t exactly not looking. He said he would be interested, maybe, if Mr. Hegar was not. But he said he isn’t thinking about it and that there is a lot of time between now and then. And he said to stay in touch.

Wouldn’t want to get left out of the conversation, now that the org chart is in play.

Nothing is a lock, particularly with elections and other decisions in the way. Ms. Hutchison is leaving, but Mr. Dewhurst might not win and might not leave the Senate. Attorney General Greg Abbott might want to run for governor in 2014, but Mr. Perry hasn’t opened that door for him. And if Mr. Abbott doesn’t run for that, then the attorney general hopefuls — whoever they are — would be stuck.

Just like they are now.

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Texas looks to fund health program without feds

AUSTIN, Texas (AP) — Texas Republican Gov. Rick Perry on Thursday directed state officials to begin looking for money to keep the Medicaid Women's Health Program, even if the Obama administration revokes federal funding amid a fight over clinics affiliated with abortion providers.

"We'll find the money. The state is committed to this program," Perry told reporters, shortly before he issued a letter directing Thomas Suehs, head of the Texas Health and Human Services Commission, to work with legislative leaders and identify money to keep the program going if federal funds are halted.

But pulling that off will be no mean feat: The program costs about $40 million and the federal government currently covers 90 percent of that.

The health program provides care to about 130,000 low-income women statewide. It had been expected to close next week, when Texas begins enforcing a law passed last summer that bars state funding from clinics affiliated with abortion providers. The Obama administration has said it will stop funding the program because federal law requires women to be able to choose any qualified clinic.

Perry spokeswoman Catherine Frazier countered that Texas has the right under federal law to determine qualified providers in the program.

The law is part of a long-running campaign by conservatives in the Republican-dominated Texas Legislature to shut down abortion providers by imposing strenuous regulations and cutting off state and federal funds for their non-abortion services. Perry and Republican state lawmakers specifically don't want Planned Parenthood clinics, which treat 40 percent of the program's patients, to get any state funding, even when that money is not spent on abortions.

That has created a legal standoff, with federal and state officials accusing each other of political extremism while poor women will be left without necessary health care. The Women's Health Program serves women ages 18-44 earning less than $20,000 a year or less than $41,000 for a family of four.

Perry did not specify where the funding for the Women's Health Program might be found. "We've got a multibillion-dollar budget, so we've got the ability to be flexible on where the money comes from," he said after an event at Texas Republican Party headquarters.

His letter to Suehs noted officials have been discussing the possibility of making up lost federal funding in the Women's Health Program for weeks.

The state Legislature is out of session and does not meet again until next year, but Frazier said the governor has the authority to redistribute available funds as he sees fit — and would not need to convene a special session.

Perry said he's anxious to save the program after the Legislature last year cut funding for 160,000 women enrolled in it. In total, lawmakers slashed $83 million in funding for women's health programs. It was not immediately clear what other areas would have to be scaled back to make funds available for the governor to keep his promise.

The Texas Democratic Party blasted Perry for removing funding from other parts of the state budget to save the program.

"Instead of diverting resources from already strained state services Perry should own up to his mistake," party spokeswoman Rebecca Acuña said in a statement.

State law already forbids taxpayer money from going to organizations that provide abortions, so groups such as Planned Parenthood have established legally distinct corporations to separate family planning and women's health providers from clinics that perform abortions.

The law about to be enacted goes a step further to make any affiliation between a clinic and an abortion provider grounds for cutting off funding. That can mean sharing a name, employee or board member, even if the two clinics are legally and financially separate. Lawmakers last year said their goal was to cut off all state funding for Planned Parenthood, not to leave poor women without health care.

"Those people that are out there trying to say, 'Oh they're going to kill this program' are just dead wrong," Perry said of the Women's Health Program on Thursday. He said the Obama administration is "trying to support an organization that supports them. ... But Texans don't want Planned Parenthood, a known abortion provider, to be involved in this."

In a letter to President Barack Obama, Perry accused the administration of trying to violate states' rights "by mandating which health providers the State of Texas must use."

"I will not allow these services to be denied by your administration's political agenda and opposition to enacted Texas law that prohibits abortion providers and their affiliates from receiving taxpayer dollars," the letter said.

___

Associated Press writers Chris Tomlinson in Austin and Angela K. Brown in Fort Worth contributed to this story.

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Republican Perry chides Romney, defends Texas actions (Reuters)

CONCORD, New Hampshire (Reuters) – Texas Governor Rick Perry renewed his attack on Republican presidential rival Mitt Romney as untrustworthy, and defended Texas illegal immigration policy that has been criticized by conservative Republicans.

Campaigning in New Hampshire, Perry accused the former Massachusetts governor of changing positions on gun control, the causes of global warming and government health insurance mandates.

He is seeking to chip away at Romney's big lead in the polls in a key early primary state, and arrest his own slide in national surveys.

"Like it or not the governor has been on the opposite side of a lot of issues," Perry said during a live interview with conservative activist and New Hampshire Republican gubernatorial candidate Ovide Lamontagne. "The issue is who are you really going to trust to stand up and be consistent?"

The Romney and Perry camps have focused their criticism on each other on Friday rather than businessman Herman Cain who now leads in some national Republican polls, an indication that neither campaign views Cain as a serious threat.

Also piling on Romney on Friday was former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, who is preparing to make a four-day campaign swing through New Hampshire.

"Real leadership is taking a clear position on issues even if it comes at political risk. Backflipping is for toys and gymnasts, not presidents," the Huntsman campaign said in a new web video.

Perry, who briefly led in national polls after entering the Republican race in August, has faded after a string of shaky performances in candidate debates.

In Concord on Friday he sought deflect criticism from Romney and Tea Party conservative activists who accuse him of being soft on illegal immigration.

Perry signed a bill that allowed Texas residents without legal U.S. resident status to attend Texas colleges, while paying in-state tuition. The bill passed the Texas legislature with overwhelming bipartisan support.

"We could kick these people to the side of the road and then we'll have to pick up the costs of whatever those social programs they're going to be eligible for," he said. "We're going to either have tax wasters or tax payers."

Perry's campaign also chided Romney for allowing people without proof of citizenship to access health care programs for the poor while governor of Massachusetts, an indication of how strongly the illegal immigration issue is resonating with Republican primary voters.

Romney campaign spokesman Andrea Saul termed Perry "desperate" in an emailed response.

He "will try anything to deflect attention away from his liberal policy on in-state tuition for illegal immigrants and his advocacy for turning Social Security over to the states," Saul said.

At a town hall meeting in Manchester on Friday evening, Romney focused on President Barack Obama rather than Perry, saying Obama as trying to "divide America into haves and have nots" and invite a "very dangerous" brand of class divisions.

The Texas governor, who has indicated he may skip some of the remaining Republican debates, joked about his debating shortfalls and sought to minimize the importance of debate performances.

"Shoot, I may be a great debater before it's all over," he said. "We have a very very good debater and a slick politician in the White House right now, and it's not working."

(Reporting by Jason McLure; Editing by Ros Krasny and Greg McCune)

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Texas Governor Perry stokes White House run talk (AFP)

NEW ORLEANS (AFP) – Sounding every bit like a candidate for the White House, Republican Texas Governor Rick Perry thrilled party activists here Saturday as he ripped President Barack Obama's "arrogance and audacity."

Perry did not announce a presidential bid at the Republican Leadership Conference, but enthusiastically heaped rhetorical fuel on the flames of speculation that he will join the crowded field of Republican candidates.

"I stand before you today a disciplined, conservative Texan, a committed Republican and a proud American, united with you in the desire to restore our nation and revive the American dream," the governor told his cheering audience.

Perry cast his conservative faith in free markets, low taxes, and limited regulation as the antidote to what he portrayed as Obama's excessive belief in government solutions at a time of historically high unemployment.

"That mix of arrogance and audacity that guides the Obama administration is an affront to every freedom-loving American and a threat to every private sector job," he thundered to a cheering, rapturous crowd in a hotel ballroom.

Perry, who succeeded George W. Bush as governor of Texas, delighted the crowd by denouncing abortion rights and assailing Obama's landmark health law and bailouts of big banks in the wake of the 2008 economic meltdown.

And he blasted the president's handling of the economy, which he contrasted to Texas's first-in-the-nation job growth, and the swollen US national debt, which he compared to his state's balanced books.

"Americans voted for hope and got nothing but greater economic misery," he said, stressing "November 2012 is not very far away and we've got to be ready to elect Republican leaders up and down that ballot."

"Let's stop this American downward spiral!"

Polls show Perry far behind the Republican presidential frontrunner, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, and some Republicans in Washington express skepticism that the Texan could get a campaign in gear quickly enough.

But a recent public opinion survey found Republicans split evenly at 45 percent on whether or not they are happy with their current White House options.

"I'm hoping that Rick Perry makes a bid," said Regina Wilson, a Louisiana resident. "He can be strong when he needs to be strong, I think he has good thoughts, and I think he has the strength we need."

"I think recently he's done a real good job with the state of Texas," said Ditch, 73.

"I was enthused about him, about the potential for him jumping in because I know he's a good friend of the governor's," referring to former Alaska governor Sarah Palin.

"So if she thinks he's a good guy, I think he's a good guy," said Ditch. "If she doesn't run."

Palin, who has not said whether she will run, was on the straw poll ballot that delegates were to use to indicate their preference for the best candidate to take on Obama.

Critics of Perry point out that his state has high rates of poverty, and he would likely face fire over telling an anti-tax "Tea Party" rally in April 2009 that Texas might be better off seceding from United States.

"We've got a great union. There's absolutely no reason to dissolve it," he said. "But if Washington continues to thumb their nose at the American people, you know, who knows what might come out of that."

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Texas Gov. Rick Perry Thrills Republican Audience in New Orleans (ContributorNetwork)

ANALYSIS | Texas Governor Rick Perry threw some more fuel on the fires of speculation of a run for the presidency in a stem winder of a speech at the Republican Leadership Conference in New Orleans that had the audience chanting, "Run, Rick, run!" according to National Journal.

The twenty minutes address was seen as a model for a campaign stump speech should Perry decide to run. Perry attacked the Obama administration for its mishandling the economy and running up $1 trillion plus deficits, allocated a little bit of scorn for some Republicans for what he saw as going wobbly on social issues, and considerable boasting of his record as governor of Texas. There were the obligatory nods to President Reagan and the 10th Amendment, which limits the power of the federal government in favor of the states.

The enthusiastic response at the New Orleans conference to Perry's red meat speech suggests that there is still a hunger among the Republican electorate for a candidate that will show passion and thus stir the same among the voters. Perry seems to fit that role, at least as indicated from the reaction from the 2,000 person audience of his speech.

Of course there are still hurdles between Perry and getting the Republican nomination, not to speak of sending President Obama packing from the White House.

First, he has to want to do it. A run for the presidency, if it is to be successful, must occupy a candidate's entire being, will, and desire. Perry has to decide if he is ready for that commitment.

Next, Perry has to win the contest among conservative candidates for the honor of the final showdown between that winner and current front runner Mitt Romney. Rep. Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain are already vying for that position. Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin may also get into the race.

Then, of course, Perry has to beat Romney. The contest will be a classic Republic clash between an establishment, moderate candidate and an outsider, conservative.

Finally, Perry has to beat President Obama.

Perry's opponents are already casting about for an attack narrative to try to blunt a possible Perry run for the presidency. Some seem to have hit upon the theme of "Perry is a more macho version of the last president from Texas." "More extreme" was also a phase that was used.

Considering that one of the most popular images on the Internet is a poster of former President Bush with the caption "Miss Me Yet?" this is an attack strategy that might backfire. A fantasy match up poll taken late last year actually had former President Bush beating President Obama in a hypothetical race.

If the Democrats are going to call Perry the second coming of Bush, but more so, that might turn out to be more of a feature than a bug.

Texas resident Mark Whittington writes about state issues for the Yahoo! Contributor Network.

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Texas Gov. Perry not a 2012 candidate just yet (AP)

By PHILIP ELLIOTT and BRIAN BAKST, Associated Press Philip Elliott And Brian Bakst, Associated Press – Sat Jun 18, 9:05 pm ET

NEW ORLEANS – A candidate in waiting, Texas Gov. Rick Perry is elbowing the Republicans already in the 2012 presidential race as he courts party activists, operatives and donors still shopping for someone to back against President Barack Obama.

His appearance Saturday at the Republican Leadership Conference offered yet another tantalizing hint that he's ready to upend a crowded field of candidates who have worked months to amass name recognition, organization and campaign cash. The longest serving governor of his state drew much interest despite little effort so far to put together a traditional campaign.

"I stand before you today as a disciplined conservative Texan, a committed Republican and a proud American, united with you to restoring our nation and revive the American dream," Perry said during an address that repeatedly drew the crowd to its feet.

He sounded every bit a candidate.

"Our shared conservative values, our belief in the individual is the great hope of our nation," he said.

Perry has long insisted he wouldn't run. But in recent weeks, he has softened his refusals and his advisers have started laying the groundwork for a campaign in Iowa. They characterize it as a coin-toss whether he enters the field in the coming weeks. The coyote-shooting, tough-talking ex-Democrat has never lost an election. As Republicans try to determine the strongest challenger to Obama, the party establishment and tea partyers don't seem satisfied with their current options.

Perry's message to them: say what you think.

"Our party cannot be all things to all people. It can't be. Our loudest opponents on the left are never going to like us so let's stop trying to curry favor with them," Perry said. "Let's stand up and speak with pride about our morals and our values." The Republican presidential field remains murky.

U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, who used Monday's debate in New Hampshire to enter the race, raised the Minneapolis crowd to its feet Saturday at the other end of the Mississippi, referring to herself as "a very different kind of leader."

It's a pitch similar to that of Herman Cain, a former pizza executive and tea party favorite who has never served in public office. U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, a favorite among the libertarian wing of the party, won the New Orleans straw poll after a rousing speech railing against Washington and the Federal Reserve.

All are trying to spark interest and capture the imagination of their party's most active members. In speeches tailored for the party's base, they hit similar messages about making Obama a one-term president, repealing his health care overhaul and lowering taxes.

Bachmann kept at it Saturday, telling the conservative bloggers in Minneapolis that Obama has a "morbid obesity when it comes to spending and deficits."

Absent from the Southern event were the nominal front-runner, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney; former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty; and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman.

Pawlenty spoke in Des Moines, Iowa, on Saturday before speaking to the online activists at Minneapolis's RightOnline conference.

"The issue isn't, `Can somebody stand up here and chirp and give a speech?' The issue is do you have the fortitude to do it? Do you have the leadership ability and experience to do it?" Pawlenty said, drawing a polite reception compared with the rousing one given Bachmann hours earlier.

Much of the talk this past week about Pawlenty concerned his self-described lackluster debate performance and his fumbled-then-renewed attack on the health care overhaul that Romney put in place in his state.

Romney has assembled a strong organization and is expected to produce impressive fundraising results in the latest reporting period. But questions about his record and authenticity give some hesitation.

Romney finished in fifth place in a straw poll of participants here, behind a second-place Huntsman, who is set to join the GOP field on Tuesday.

Such pining for new candidates already has resulted in disappointment.

Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour both decided to skip the race. Donald Trump flirted early and then left.

Sarah Palin, the former governor of Alaska and the GOP's 2008 vice presidential pick, overshadowed former Romney's presidential announcement in New Hampshire with an East Coast bus tour that took her to his home base of Boston and then across the border into the state the hosts the first nominating primary.

She hasn't said what she will do.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich's campaign troubles have helped Perry. Gingrich's senior aides resigned en masse in disagreements with the candidate. Many of Gingrich's top aides are alumni of Perry campaigns and could return to Texas should Perry decide to run.

Indications were that he was leaning that way.

Gingrich's former political director was laying the groundwork for Perry in Iowa. Perry planned a national day of prayer in Houston, a move seen by GOP insiders as a play to evangelicals who are an important part of the GOP base, particularly in Iowa. Yet he is starting late.

Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina traditionally are won through frequent visits and courting the local officials who deliver supporters, block by block. Perry has not been to Iowa since the 2008 campaign when he campaigned in the state for former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

He could make up for his tardiness with toughness: "That mix of arrogance and audacity that guides the Obama administration is an affront to every freedom-loving American."

___

Bakst reported from Minneapolis. Associated Press writer Thomas Beaumont in Des Moines, Iowa, contributed to this report.

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Texas Gov. Rick Perry Delivers Keynote Speech to New York Republicans (ContributorNetwork)

Nothing was mentioned of a presidential campaign, but Texas Gov. Rick Perry's speech before the New York County Republican Party's annual Lincoln Day dinner at Grand Central Station in Manhattan sounded like a stump speech.

Perry was substituted for Donald Trump. According to the Houston Chronicle, he made a little joke at the Donald's expense. "He's known for saying, 'You're fired.' We're known for saying, 'You're hired.' That's what we do in Texas."

The main point of the 25-minute speech was a contrast to the free spending, big government ways of the Democrats in Washington that had brought economic malaises and the loss of jobs, to small government, low taxes in Texas that has brought some measure of economic growth and job creation. If Perry were to run for president, that contrast would be the main thrust of his message. He would do for the United States what he has already done for Texas.

It is a powerful message. Most of the other candidates such as Newt Gingrich, Michele Bachmann or Rick Santorum cannot match it. They can only say what they intend to do. Even the governors in the race -- Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney and perhaps even Sarah Palin -- would be hard pressed to match Perry's resume.

President Barack Obama would certainly have some difficulty answering any argument to make Perry president of the United States. Obama has presided over an economic downturn using methods that are the exact opposite of what Perry has employed. He cannot very well say, let us not let Gov. Perry apply what has worked and instead allow me to keep doing what has not.

The only strategy the president and his people can employ against Perry is to try to scare people. Sure, Perry has presided over job creation and economic growth. But it has been at the expense of school children, old people and the sick. Sure, Perry is a success, but he lacks compassion.

Perry's response would be, I have made the difficult choices. The president has not. Take note of the results and act accordingly.

It should be noted that politicians in other states -- California and now Arkansas -- are urging Perry to get into the race. If he does and if Palin does not, then he might shoot to the top tier in short order, taking on Romney for the nomination.

It would therefore be a delicious irony if the administration of Barack Obama turned out to be a sad interlude between two presidencies of men from Texas. The difference is that while George W. Bush was a "compassionate conservative," Perry is a "tough love conservative." That will make all the difference in the world.

Texas resident Mark Whittington writes about state issues for the Yahoo! Contributor Network.

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Texas Gov. Rick Perry Could Be Strong GOP Presidential Contender (ContributorNetwork)

COMMENTARY | The recent mass resignations of Gingrich campaign staffers have stoked speculation about a Rick Perry presidential run. Perry, the governor of Texas, once employed Gingrich's now ex-campaign manager, Rob Johnson, and now will again, reports the Blaze.

Despite being wooed by groups like a group of California legislators, Perry's official stance is that he is still "thinking about it," according to Pajamas Media, and is now busy with the special session of the Texas legislature.

If Perry should decide to run, he would enjoy certain bragging rights that few other candidates can have in this era of economic malaise. He has not only balanced a state budget while making painful cuts in the face of opposition from special interest groups, he has presided over a state that has actually increased jobs and fostered economic growth.

According to a Wall Street Journal story, Perry's Texas has added 37 percent of all net jobs in the United States since June 2009 in an era of fitful, 1.8 percent growth. Perry can point to a business-friendly regime of low taxes, low spending, and light regulation as reasons. He might even suggest that Texas' economic growth would have been even greater had it not been for President Obama's war on the oil and gas industry.

That narrative of a Perry campaign practically writes itself: "Let me do for America, what I have done for Texas." It would be a campaign based on a record of executive competence as much as it would be on conservative ideology.

Mitt Romney, still bedeviled by the disaster that is Romneycare, would be hard pressed to offer a reason why he would get the nomination and not Perry. Perry's main rivals would be Tim Pawlenty and, if she decides to get in, Sarah Palin, both of whom have sterling records as governors of their states.

If Perry were to get the nomination, he would provide a conundrum for President Obama and his people. Obama, whose failures in economic policy are manifest, will not be able to contest Perry on that field. The only recourse would be for Obama to go on the attack, accusing Perry of balancing his state budget on the backs of school children, sick people, and the elderly. That strategy has been part of the Democratic playbook for generations and there is no reason for Obama not to use it.

The problem is that a reelection campaign is generally a referendum on the record of the sitting president seeking four more years. If Obama cannot make the case that he deserves four more years to give the country the same medicine that he has given it the first four years, he will be defeated. Jimmy Carter found that out in 1980. George H. W. Bush found that out in 1992. Obama would have to convince people that he would do a better job than a President Perry (or a President Palin, President Pawlenty, or even a President Romney.) If he cannot, he is as done as a Thanksgiving turkey.

Texas resident Mark Whittington writes about state issues for the Yahoo! Contributor Network.

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