Gay Pride Parade in Phoenix on April 16, 2011.

When you talk to someone from almost any state east of the Mississippi and the conversation turns to Arizonans' attitudes toward minorities, the Easterner is almost certain to think: SB 1070, a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage, an ultraconservative Legislature and governor -- in general, a disinterest or even hostility toward minorities.

And yet, when the page turned to the new year this last January, Arizona found itself in the curious position of having more openly gay and lesbian candidates running for Congress than any other state, including our next-door neighbor, California, with five times as many congressional districts fielding candidates.

Seventeen states still have no open gay or lesbian serving in their state legislatures. But not Arizona, which has had gay legislators serving in the House and Senate for well over a decade. So, how is this phenomenon to be explained?

You can start with the obvious. Arizona was, after all, the home of Barry Goldwater -- an individual who gave his name to libertarian thinking in the Republican Party and made it not only acceptable but mainstream.

It was Goldwater who almost two decades before the current administration repealed the "Don't ask, don't tell," policy for the military, famously said it shouldn't matter whether someone in the military service was straight or not but only whether he could shoot straight.

But the "Arizona phenomenon" is more than Barry Goldwater and libertarian thinking. It has a lot to do with demographics. Arizona is a relatively young state. The issue of equality of rights for gays and lesbians is almost entirely (I underscore that word) a generational issue -- not one of conservative-vs.-liberal political thinking or conservative-vs.-liberal religious views.

An internal poll done not too long ago as research for an article in a major national publication asked the same question -- Do you support or oppose gay marriage? -- of two groups.

The first were young, self-identified conservative and evangelical people; the second group consisted of liberals over the age of 60. It may seem counterintuitive, but the younger group was more inclined to support gay marriage than their older opposites.

Republican or Democratic lawmakers who oppose gay marriage, gay adoptions, or protection for LGBT people from job discrimination, are simply on the wrong side of a historical trend.

For the first time, a majority of Americans support gay marriage. Legislators sense this, and even though some appeal to opponents in election primaries using these wedge issues, you will find them muting any discussion of them in a general-election campaign.

Former Sen. Rick Santorum found they couldn't propel him to success in Republican presidential primaries.

I'm old enough to remember when it was against the law for an African-American and a Caucasian to marry in nearly half of all states. Tell that to a first-time voter today and that person will look at you as though you were daft.

And so it will be in another generation. Children will ask of their grandparents, "You mean it was once actually against the law for Uncle Harry and Uncle Paul to be married?"

What does this mean for the future of LGBT rights in Arizona? Well, don't look for Arizona to soon repeal its constitutional ban on same-sex marriages. Don't look for quick passage of non-discrimination laws.

But the table is set. The federal courts are likely to set the wheels in motion when they conclude this issue is one of equal protection of the law. And I would expect Arizona citizens to support this move and for their legislators to accommodate it.

I may not be around to see it, but young people growing up in Arizona today will almost certainly be able to be legally married -- though the union may not be blessed by their own church, for that is a religious matter beyond the reach of the state -- whether they are male and female or two males or two females.

And protection of those rights will be ensured without regard to sexual preference, just as we protect people today against discrimination based on race, sex or religious belief.

When I served in Congress, I liked to tell my colleagues that Arizona was the only state to adopt a Martin Luther King Jr. holiday by a vote of the people.

Arizona could be a leader again when it comes to protecting the rights of LGBT people in our midst. Barry Goldwater would most certainly approve.

Jim Kolbe, a Republican and former Arizona congressman, serves as Senior Transatlantic Fellow at the German Marshall Fund, a Washington, D.C., policy institute, and as a senior adviser for McLarty Associates, a strategic consulting firm.

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