Biden tells Ariz. Dems state is up for grabs

Vice President Joe Biden roused Democrats in Phoenix on Thursday by becoming the latest to suggest that Arizona and its 11 electoral votes may be in play in this year's presidential election.

"We think we have a real shot at winning the presidential race here in Arizona," Biden said to the raucous applause of about 100 donors at the Heard Museum for a fundraising luncheon.

President Barack Obama's re-election campaign is not accepting the conventional wisdom that Arizona inevitably will go Republican this year, Biden said, promising, "You're going to see organizers here."

The big question for political observers is whether Biden was speaking to a deepening belief among Democrats that they really can take the traditional red state, which has backed Democrats for president only twice in the past 65 years, or if his remarks just reflected political gamesmanship. But at this point, Democratic leaders are insisting they view Arizona as legitimately up for grabs.

Obama campaign officials have said that they believe Obama would have carried Arizona in 2008 had John McCain, the state's senior senator, not been the GOP presidential nominee that year. Obama beat McCain in surrounding states such as Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado.

Republicans strenuously disagree that Obama has a chance of beating Mitt Romney, the presumptive GOP nominee, in Arizona. Republicans have a voter-registration edge here, and Romney, a Mormon, could benefit from the state's large Mormon population.

"Arizona voters realize that the Obama-Biden administration has failed to deliver on its promise to create jobs and turn around the economy," Romney spokesman Ryan Williams said. "They realize that this president is in over his head on economic matters and he has no plans to put middle-class families back to work. Arizona is ready to elect a successful businessman like Mitt Romney, who understands how the economy works and can restore America's prosperity."

Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, today will make his first public appearances in Arizona since he won a decisive victory over his GOP rivals in the state's Feb. 28 presidential-preference election.

He is expected to appear with McCain at a Republican National Committee gathering at the Fairmont Scottsdale Princess resort; host a Hispanic business round table and participate in a rally in Tempe; and headline a big-ticket fundraiser at a home in Phoenix's Biltmore area.

Romney's campaign also will announce today his endorsement by Sen. Jon Kyl, R-Ariz.

"After a long primary, it is time for the Republican Party to come together and support the candidate who will defeat President Obama," Kyl, the Senate minority whip who is not seeking re-election to a fourth term this year, said in a written statement.

Despite Romney's support from the Arizona Republican establishment, one political expert noted that Arizona has elected Democrats to statewide office, so an Obama victory is not too far-fetched.

"But remarks like that (Biden's) are more in the order of a head fake that is trying to get the Republicans to divert their scarce campaign resources to states that they're going to carry anyway," said John J. "Jack" Pitney Jr., a political scientist at Claremont McKenna College in Southern California. "This is more about psychological warfare than electoral-college arithmetic."

Perhaps the likeliest scenario for Obama to carry Arizona, Pitney said, would be if he built up a substantial national lead like President Bill Clinton did when he won the state in 1996.

"I don't think that 2012 is going to be like that, and in a close election, you have to concentrate your scarce resources where they can do you the most good," he said. "And that's probably defending the states he carried four years ago rather than trying to stake out new territory."

But Bruce Merrill, a veteran political scientist and senior research fellow at Arizona State University's Morrison Institute for Public Policy, said he believes the presidential race in Arizona is much closer than he initially would have predicted.

Statewide poll results that he intends to release soon reflect a tight race between Romney and Obama among Arizona voters.

Other polls over the past couple of years have had Romney performing well against Obama in the state, although an automated survey conducted in February had the race tied. However, those polls were taken before it was completely clear that Romney would be the nominee.

"If the election were held today, I think it would be very close, but I think Romney would probably win in Arizona," Merrill said. "But strategists from around the country have called me, and they are arguing that Arizona is in play. I think the Obama people really do believe that they can win here."

At the Phoenix fundraiser, Biden laid out why he believes the Democratic ticket will win a second term in November.

The vice president predicted the Obama campaign's grass-roots ground game will counteract the millions of dollars of negative advertising that they expect the Republicans and their allies to throw their way.

The American people also will reward Obama for the backbone he showed in making tough decisions related to his health-care-reform overhaul, the automobile-industry bailout and the fight against al-Qaida terrorists, he said.

Biden got a hearty response to a campaign "bumper sticker" slogan he suggested for the Democrats: "Osama bin Laden is dead, and General Motors is alive."

"Neither of those things would be true had Romney been president the last four years," Biden said.

Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton spoke at the fundraiser prior to Biden, who was introduced by Karen Casas, a 17-year-old student from South Mountain High School in Phoenix and a campaign volunteer.

Stanton praised the administration for the help the 2009 economic-stimulus package gave Phoenix during the recent recession.

"Their actions put people to work and kept people at work, particularly teachers and public-safety officers and police and firefighters, during the worst of the economic slump," Stanton said. "And now, we have witnessed more than 25 consecutive months of private-sector job growth, creating over 4 million jobs nationwide since March of 2010 -- 30,000 of those jobs right here in Arizona. ? The city I lead is better off than it was four years ago."

Tickets for the Heard Museum event started at $500 and raised money for the Obama Victory Fund, a joint fundraising committee of Obama for America, the Democratic National Committee and multiple state Democratic parties.

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