Few lines are as memorable as "Show me the money!" from "Jerry Maguire." Presidential politics requires more than experience, it also requires a lot of money. First quarter fundraising numbers are due from presidential candidates by July 15, but most of the candidates have released their numbers early.
It is easy to get lost in the top line numbers; however, we need to examine the results carefully in order to determine the winners and losers.
Winners
Mitt Romney. The obvious winner of the Q1 money cycle is Romney. The Romney campaign disclosed that they brought in $18.5 million this cycle clearly exceeding his competitors. The only drawback for Romney is that his haul was not a large as it was in 2007 and many people expected larger numbers from him.
Jon Huntsman. Huntsman is attempting to position himself as a moderate alternative to Romney and as an ambassador to China he has not been able to dedicate himself to fundraising like other candidates. He had a very respectable $4.1 million. The Huntsman campaign has clearly stated they were going to skip the Iowa caucuses and this fundraising total will make him competitive in the New Hampshire primary.
Barack Obama. Wait -- wasn't this article about the Republicans? The July 15 deadline applies to the Democrats as well. Obama and the Democratic National Committee had set a target to raise $60 million and they expected to eclipse that mark. Obama is likely to skip public financing and his staff has hinted at spending as much as $1 billion on his re-election campaign.
Losers
Tim Pawlenty. Pawlenty's campaign indicated that it raised $4.2 million. Unlike Huntsman, Pawlenty was one of the first to announce his candidacy and has been raising money longer than the other candidates. These results are disappointing as he is fighting off a challenge from Bachmann in Iowa and will need to compete in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Pawlenty will need to boost his fundraising if he hopes to compete in both states.
Michele Bachmann. Bachmann is known for her grassroots fundraising efforts; however, her Q1 numbers are not expected to be impressive as she announced her candidacy late in the cycle. Her campaign has indicated that they are going to wait until the July 15 deadline, and it is unlikely that they are doing so because they are ecstatic about their numbers. More than likely the campaign is working on a strategy to prevent this disclosure from stopping her momentum from the New Hampshire debate.
The Rest of the Field. The rest of the field provided numbers that were expected and have not changed the race. Newt Gingrich's campaign raised $2.5 million, but is in debt and Ron Paul disclosed $4.5 million to fund his vanity contest. The rest of the candidates will be spending the next few weeks spinning their low numbers (if press talks to them at all).
Based on the first debate and the Q1 results there is no doubt now that Mitt Romney is the front runner. Republican donations are coming in at a slower pace than in 2007. Before we give Obama a second term we need to ensure that we understand the differences between the 2008 and 2012 elections. The 2008 election was an open election with a small number of serious candidates. The upcoming election is against an incumbent and the Republicans have at least three strong candidates and two (Palin, Perry) that have not ruled out a run. It is not unusual for the incumbent party to outpace the challengers. This year it appears that the gap is larger as the Republican money is sitting on the sidelines waiting for the field to sort itself out; however, it is likely that once a challenger is chosen the Republican candidate will not hurt for resources.
