Supporters cautiously optimistic

Despite the missed goals, uncertain timetable and at-times heated rhetoric in the Republican-led House of Representatives, immigration-reform supporters remain cautiously optimistic that a game plan is emerging that will have lawmakers voting on the legislation this year.

Action in the House is on hold until after Congress returns from its August recess on Sept.9. But the five-week break, during which representatives will hold town-hall meetings and otherwise gauge the feelings of their constituents, could go a long way toward determining the legislation's fate.

Immigration-rights activists this month are planning to press their case with House lawmakers. Business, religious, law-enforcement and labor groups already have been lobbying aggressively for reform. Opponents of immigration reform -- which many critics call "amnesty" for law-breaking immigrants -- also are expected to make their voices heard, but the House's inaction so far has provided little to galvanize them.

The break comes as other developments offer renewed hope for supporters of immigration reform.

While House Republican leaders flatly rejected the comprehensive immigration package that the Senate passed June27, making it seem as though immigration reform was destined to die a slow death,it appears likely that votes on a series of bills are possible in October and that a conference committee with the Senate could be completed in December or early next year, before midterm-election-year politics paralyze Capitol Hill.

Reform advocates say they detect a sincere effort by Republican leaders such as House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, and Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., to come up with solutions for the most vexing problems associated with the nation's broken border system, including addressing the status of the estimated 11million undocumented immigrants who have already settled in the country.

At a town-hall meeting last month in Racine, Wis., Ryan, the 2012 Republican vice-presidential nominee and a possible 2016 White House hopeful, told the audience that the group ofHouse immigration bills would include one "to legalize people who are undocumented," the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported.

Hoping to avoid the broad pathway to citizenship included in the Senate-passed plan, many House Republicans are more open to legislation without a special path for most undocumented immigrants. They are more inclined tolimit citizenship to young undocumented immigrants brought here as children, known as "dreamers," and leave the majority of the 11million who have no legal status without a certain path to citizenship. The idea would allow many to work toward citizenship through existing channels, such as having their children or employers sponsor them, which would be more difficult than allowing them to apply for citizenship on their own after they received permanent residency.

While many reform backers disagree with that concept, they say it at least would provide a starting point for House and Senate negotiations on bringing undocumented immigrants out of the shadows.

Even controversial remarks, such as those made by Rep. Steve King, R-Iowa -- who caused a furor last month by calling some dreamers drug runners -- might wind up helping the reform movement by reminding Republicans of the political damage immigration hard-liners can do to the GOP brand among Latino voters.

Boehner called King's comments "deeply offensive and wrong" and contrary to the values of the American people and the Republican Party.

Since President Barack Obama's 2012 defeat of Republican Mitt Romney, many Republican leaders have said that the GOP needs to make rebuilding its relationship with Latino voters a priority.

"My sense is … that momentum is growing," said Rep. Xavier Becerra, D-Calif., who is part of a bipartisan House group that for months has been working on a comprehensive immigration-reform bill. "Even, to some degree, you're beginning to hear House Republicans change their tune. It's still got a lot of sour notes in it, but at least they are now singing a tune that is talking about possibly getting this done. But it is decision time. We are watching the clock run out."

Frustrations mount

So far, the House immigration push mostly has been a series of disappointments for supporters.

Becerra's group has yet to produce a bill, and on a recent media conference call, he acknowledged that it has taken longer than expected.

"Many of us would have preferred to have done this before the August recess," he said.

Others similarly had hoped that the House would pass at least one immigration-related bill -- border-security legislation was seen as the likeliest candidate -- before the break, but that didn't happen, either.

Boehner's criticism of the Senate bill, which passed on a 68-32 vote, and insistence that any House immigration legislation have the support of a majority of Republicans, also has complicated matters.

August could prove pivotal. Reform supporters and immigration-rights activists aim to keep up the drumbeat for a pathway to citizenship and let Congress members know that they are not giving up.

"The August recess is very important because … we're trying to make it clear to our Republican colleagues, including those in Arizona, that we'd like for them to pass the legislation that they think is best," said Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., the lead GOP negotiator on the Senate bill. "Then, we would look forward to a conference and trying to meet the concerns of both sides and come up with legislation. I believe we all share the conclusion that the status quo is unacceptable."

Promise Arizona, a pro-reform organization founded in opposition to the controversial 2010 state immigration law known as Senate Bill 1070, and a coalition of 22 other groups this month plan to step up the pressure on Republican members of Arizona's House delegation.

In Arizona, activists are targeting Rep. Trent Franks because of his work on family issues and Rep. Matt Salmon because of his East Valley constituents. Salmon's district is home to many Mormons, whose church supports reform, and has a high number of Pacific Islanders, a demographic group often affected by immigration policies. The activists plan to attend the representatives' town halls, reach out to their staffs and continue canvassing their districts.

"Congressman Salmon recognizes there is a real opportunity to finally secure our borders and reform our immigration system," Salmon spokeswoman Kristine Michalson said. "As such, he has made it a top priority to meet with constituents, businesses and immigration groups to discuss how to find a workable solution using fair and practical policies. To date, the congressman and his staff have held over 40 separate meetings and listening sessions and more are planned for the August work period."

In June, Promise Arizona sent flower bouquets to McCain and Sen. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., to thank them for writing and helping pass the Senate bill.

"Republicans need to see (immigration reform) as an opportunity," said Petra Falcon, Promise Arizona's executive director. "It's an opportunity for the GOP to turn around its image and get to working on other things. Immigration reform should be an easy answer."

Critics of immigration reform say they intend to make their own points at town halls this month.

"We're planning on making all of the events of the congressmen and congresswomen," said Tim Rafferty, president of the group RidersUSA, a Valley organization that recently put up a billboard promoting Flake's role in "the Flake-Obama amnesty." The group is part of a coalition called "Remember 1986," named for the year a previous law provided amnesty to nearly 3million undocumented immigrants.

'It's not going to be pretty'

While the scope of the mobilization of immigration-reform foes remains to be seen, one leading reform advocate said supporters have a "tremendous amount of activity" planned around the country.

"We're pretty confident that we'll come out of the summer with momentum, and we're optimistic that the House Republicans are going to find a way to get to 'yes,'" said Frank Sharry, executive director of the Washington, D.C.-based organization America's Voice. "It's not going to bepretty, and it's not going to be quick, but I really do think that they get that doing nothing is not an option … that as a political party, they can't deny that a majority of the people want reform and that a mobilized majority of Latinos want respect."

Sharry noted that the blowback from King's derogatory comments about dreamers already was overshadowing the strides made by McCain, Flake and other Republicans who backed the Senate immigration bill. Sharry and Flake both said the controversy should provide House Republicans extra motivation to get immigration reform done.

"I don't think most Republicans want to be tarred with that brush, and most Republicans don't feel that way," Flake said. "But when people like Steve King keep saying things like that, it, unfortunately, kind of puts everybody in the same category. I think people want to resist that and want to do something to show that we want to move ahead."

Other observers also said there may be cause for cautious optimism about immigration reform's chances in the House.

The Senate took a top-down approach, with a group of influential senators leading the way, while the House is taking more of a bottom-up approach, but House Republicans are grappling with the issues and asking, "What can we do, how far can we stretch," said Tamar Jacoby, president of ImmigrationWorks USA, a coalition of business groups that backs immigration reform.

More Republicans are talking about a way to achieve legal status for undocumented immigrants without a special path to citizenship, Jacoby said. And from her perspective, the House's take on workplace enforcement, a lower-skilled worker program and border security might turn out better than the Senate's.

"The House could come through in ways that really would advance the ball and be helpful and be part of the solution," she said. "It's not going to be the Senate way, but I don't think the question is going to be the Senate way or nothing."

Republic reporter Rebekah L. Sanders contributed to this article.

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GOP rivals hope to court Cain supporters (AP)

WASHINGTON – A day after Herman Cain shuttered his Republican candidacy for president, struggling GOP hopefuls looked to pick up the fallen candidate's tea party following and upset a primary dynamic that has pushed Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich to the forefront.

Gingrich's campaign, ramping up its operations in early nominating states, was meeting with former Cain aides and advisers now looking for jobs. While Cain's endorsement remained up for grabs, Gingrich and his rivals were looking to schedule one-on-one meetings this week with the former pizza executive.

Reps. Ron Paul of Texas and Michele Bachmann of Minnesota said Sunday they expected Cain supporters would fall in line behind them because of their messages on limited government, despite their low standing in the polls. Meanwhile, last-place rival Rick Santorum predicted he now had a good chance of winning the Iowa caucus.

While such brazen predictions are probably overstated, the 11th-hour press comes at a crucial time and could upset an already volatile race for the GOP endorsement. A month before the first vote is cast in the Iowa caucus and five weeks before the New Hampshire primary, most GOP candidates were looking to a week of heavy campaigning in Iowa ahead of the next debate, scheduled for Saturday. The stakes are possibly the highest for Mitt Romney, who could be hurt the worst if Cain supporters rally behind Gingrich.

"A lot of Herman Cain supporters have been calling our office and they've been coming over to our side," said Bachmann. "They saw Herman Cain as an outsider and I think they see that my voice would be the one that would be most reflective of his."

Likewise, Paul said he was optimistic that Cain's departure would reinvigorate his campaign.

"We're paying a lot of attention to that, because obviously they're going to go somewhere in the next week or so," Paul said of Cain's supporters.

Santorum predicted that his campaign would pick up steam in coming days.

"We have a very strong, consistent conservative message that matches up better with Iowans than anybody else. And we think we're going to surprise a lot of people," he said.

Once surging in the polls, Cain dropped out of the race Saturday after battling allegations of sexual harassment and a claim that he had a 13-year extramarital affair. The Georgia businessman has denied the accusations.

Gingrich, the former House speaker from Georgia, has so far been the biggest beneficiary of Cain's slide. A Des Moines Register poll conducted Nov. 27-30 and released late Saturday found the former House speaker leading the GOP field with 25 percent support, ahead of Paul at 18 percent and Romney at 16.

A separate NBC News/Marist poll showed Gingrich beating Romney, 26 percent to 18 percent, among Republican caucus attendees in Iowa.

Gingrich also is enjoying national popularity that could give him the momentum he needs to overcome deficiencies in the organization of his campaign. At the same time, Gingrich says he knows his surge in the polls could disappear if his opponents stage a comeback.

"I'm not going to say that any of my friends can't suddenly surprise us," Gingrich said at a recent town hall meeting in New York sponsored by tea party supporters.

Meanwhile, Romney is running strong in New Hampshire, which holds the nation's first primary on Jan. 10. Romney is also seen by most conservatives at this point as having the greatest chance of defeating President Barack Obama next year.

But Romney continues to be viewed with suspicion by many conservatives who say he has changed his stance on such critical issues as abortion and health care. Santorum acknowledged Sunday that Romney has embraced more conservative positions on issues.

"The question is, you know, what's the sincerity of the move and whether he can be trusted," said Santorum.

Bachmann said it was too soon to declare anyone a true front-runner because the dynamic in the race was constantly changing.

"We've got 30 days," she said. "That's an eternity in this race."

Reince Priebus, the Republican Party chairman, said Sunday that he was indifferent to Cain's departure and that it was "only natural" in the face of falling poll numbers and trouble raising money.

This week's agenda for the primary candidates included a stop in Arizona by Romney and a forum Wednesday by the Republican Jewish Coalition in Washington, which is expected to attract Bachmann, Gingrich, Huntsman, Perry, Romney and Santorum. Gingrich was scheduled to meet Monday with real-estate mogul Donald Trump at Trump's New York offices. Trump, who briefly entered the primary race in the spring and drew considerable publicity when he questioned the validity of Obama's birth certificate, said he would moderate a Republican presidential debate in Iowa on Dec. 27.

Paul, who has clashed publicly with Trump, said he thought the GOP was making a mistake in giving Trump so much credibility.

"I don't understand the marching to his office. I mean I didn't know that he had an ability to lay on hands, you know, and anoint people," Paul said.

Paul and Bachmann spoke on CNN's "State of the Union." Santorum spoke on ABC's "This Week." Priebus spoke on NBC's "Meet the Press."

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