Sinema files FEC complaint vs. Parker

The Arizona Republican Party and GOP congressional candidate Vernon Parker are accusing Democratic opponent Kyrsten Sinema of being soft on crime, citing her work as a criminal defender and votes she took as a state legislator on crime-related bills.

Sinema's campaign calls the accusations an effort to "tar" her and has filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission alleging that Parker spread the attack illegally by including it in a phone poll without indicating he paid for the calls.

The FEC confirmed Thursday that it had received the complaint. The agency is unlikely to complete an inquiry, if it chooses to investigate, before Nov. 6.

The attacks come as Parker and Sinema are locked in a battle for the state's most competitive U.S. House seat, District 9. Arizona gained the seat this year because of population growth.

It covers parts of Phoenix, Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Tempe, Chandler and Mesa.

With less than two weeks before Election Day, the campaigns are working at full throttle to turn out supporters and to build doubt among swing voters about the opposing candidate.

The Arizona Republican Party has taken the lead in leveling crime-related attacks against Sinema.

The party says in e-mails and mailers that Sinema puts "felons over families," would have "spared" the "Baseline Killer" from the death penalty and is "running from her past" of representing "murderers."

The basis for the attacks: Sinema, a former state lawmaker, sponsored bills to release criminals on medical parole without a victim-impact statement and to abolish the death penalty. She voted against classifying drive-by shootings as felony murders and stiffening penalties for repeat felons.

Sinema also spent part of her career as a criminal-defense attorney. The Republican Party has called on her to release names of her clients. She has not.

Sinema spokesman Rodd McLeod said the attacks aren't relevant to issues facing residents in District 9.

For instance, he said, the death penalty hasn't been a hot topic in Congress in quite some time.

"This is just a desperate attempt by the Parker campaign to distract from serious issues, where Parker is woefully out of step," McLeod said, citing abortion, education and other topics. "He's deadly afraid to talk about real issues that matter to voters."

McLeod said Sinema has not practiced criminal law since 2006.

State Bar of Arizona records show Sinema was admitted to practice law on Jan. 1, 2006.

Her law license was active until March of this year.

Sinema has described herself as a future criminal-defense attorney, a criminal-defense attorney and an attorney in her political biography since 2005, including a book she authored in 2009.

In a 2007 story in The Arizona Republic, Sinema said she was an attorney with Martin Lieberman PC.

Lieberman is a well-known Phoenix criminal-defense attorney who currently serves as the Maricopa County defender. He founded the anti-capital-punishment group Arizona Death Penalty Forum.

Sinema was an advisory-board member for the group and has represented the anti-death-penalty position at debates around the Valley, TheRepublic found.

Lieberman has donated $2,500 to Sinema's campaign. He would not answer questions from TheRepublic on Thursday about Sinema working for him.

Sinema's campaign says Parker is the one with legal questions to explain.

According to the campaign's FEC complaint, Parker paid for a poll of likely voters that told Sinema supporters she was a criminal-defense lawyer who represented murderers and asked participants whether Sinema should release a list of her clients.

Sinema's campaign argues that the poll constituted "electioneering" and that Parker failed to provide a "paid for by" statement during the call, which is legally required for campaign ads and communications.

Campaigns often use polls to test positive and negative messages against opponents and themselves.

McLeod says the difference is that the purpose of the poll was "clearly to spread negative information."

Parker's campaign said Sinema's complaint is a distraction.

"The people of Arizona deserve to know who Sinema stands with, including her murderous clients. Unfortunately, she is dodging the issue, and this letter is her latest attempt," Parker spokeswoman Alyssa Pivirotto said.

"Our campaign has not received notice of any complaint from the FEC, but when and if we do, we will respond completely and promptly."

Copyright 2012 The Arizona Republic|azcentral.com. All rights reserved.For more information about reprints & permissions, visit our FAQ's. To report corrections and clarifications, contact Standards Editor Brent Jones. For publication consideration in the newspaper, send comments to letters@usatoday.com. Include name, phone number, city and state for verification. To view our corrections, go to corrections.usatoday.com.

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Independents' vote crucial for Parker, Sinema in House battle

A tree-lined Phoenix street near the Arizona Biltmore offered a glimpse on a recent afternoon into the unpredictability of the 9th District congressional race.

Residents of three nearby houses were registered as Democrat, independent and Republican. Their varied affiliations reflect the nearly even split between the major parties in the district, as well as the prevalence of voters with "no party preference."

Republican Vernon Parker and Democrat Kyrsten Sinema will have to court the independent crowd more than candidates in any other U.S. House race in the state.

In Arizona, only the 9th District is dominated by independents, who outnumber Republicans by 15,000 and Democrats by 21,000. By definition, these so-called swing voters are not easy to pin down.

Arizona has two other competitive districts -- northern Arizona's 1st District and southern Arizona's 2nd District -- but neither has as many independent voters.

"I don't like to classify myself with one or another. It's like belonging to one religion," said 58-year-old interior designer Karen Rapp, the independent living on the Phoenix street. She said she often votes Democratic for state offices and Republican for federal offices because she likes the idea of parties splitting power and thinks their platforms work better in those positions.

This time around, though, she plans to deviate and vote for Sinema because a neighbor -- the nearby registered Democrat -- works for the former state lawmaker's campaign and has sung her praises.

To attract more independent voters like Rapp, Parker and Sinema are touting their crossover appeal and accusing each other of being "extreme."

The candidates tell stories of overcoming childhood poverty through education and hard work. They argue that their ideas about taxes and the economy will help middle-class families. And on some issues, such as immigration, they advocate positions closer to the middle than some in their parties.

For instance, Sinema voted in the Legislature for sending National Guard troops to the border and stiffening penalties for owners of drophouses. In Congress, she wants to require banks to freeze suspected drug-cartel accounts.

Parker, on the other hand, recently told The Arizona Republic he would support some version of the Dream Act or Florida Sen. Marco Rubio's alternative to provide a path to legal status for young immigrants brought to the United States illegally by their parents, though he did not specify what changes he would make to those plans.

Wes Gullett, a political strategist at the nonpartisan consulting firm FirstStrategic Communications and Public Affairs and a former Republican candidate for Phoenix mayor, said 9th District voters are among the most politically engaged in the state. Much of the district is expected to vote this fall.

An Arizona Republic analysis of voting data shows primary turnout, though small overall, was highest among independents in north and central Phoenix, suggesting the battle between Parker and Sinema may be fiercest there. The district also covers parts of Paradise Valley, Scottsdale, Tempe, Mesa, Chandler and Ahwatukee Foothills.

Gullett, who is not supporting either candidate, said north-central Phoenix neighborhoods like Arcadia and areas near Piestewa Peak are always highly contested in city, legislative and congressional races. Voters in those areas pay attention, he said.

"There's lots of opportunity there for both campaigns to do well," Gullett said. "It all comes back to those swing voters and figuring out who those swing voters are."

Campaign battlegrounds

The Republic's analysis of 9th District primary data shows:

Independent turnout was small, offering only limited clues to the general election. A variety of factors, including the challenge of requesting a primary ballot, deter independents from voting in the primary. But campaigns use the information as one indicator of where to spend resources for the general election, when many more independents and party voters will cast ballots.

North-central Phoenix, followed by parts of Tempe, Mesa and Ahwatukee, drew the strongest independent turnout during the primary. Those areas are likely to draw high participation in the general election and could become campaign battlegrounds.

Independents voted like their neighbors. In precincts where registered Republicans cast more primary votes, independents also swung Republican. The same was true for precincts that leaned Democratic. Parker and Sinema will likely garner the most support from independents in areas where their party bases are enthusiastic.

Though independent registration continues to grow in Arizona, independents who vote in primaries remain rare, as is the case with all voters. Only 8.8 percent of ballots cast in the 9th District primary came from independents, according to data provided to The Republic from the Maricopa County Elections Department through the state Democratic Party.

One reason independents turn out in low numbers is the extra step to receive early primary ballots, said Paul Johnson, a former Phoenix Democratic mayor. While party voters on the permanent early-voting list automatically receive primary ballots, independents must tell the county Elections Department which party ballot they want.

That keeps many independents from voting, said Johnson.

He is advocating for passage of Proposition 121, which would eliminate the party-ballot system and allow voters, regardless of party, to vote for any candidate during the primary. Independents then would receive early ballots as party voters do. Opponents say in practice the system is unlikely to boost independent turnout.

Rapp, the independent Phoenix voter, didn't vote in the primary because she didn't receive an early ballot.

"It wasn't convenient," Rapp said.

Other independents may sit out primaries because they don't feel strongly enough to vote or don't think it's right to participate in a partisan primary, said Michael O'Neil, president of Tempe polling firm O'Neil Associates Inc.

Since many more independents are expected to vote on Nov. 6, the primary patterns provide some insight but aren't enough to predict the general-election outcome, O'Neil said.

"It might be suggestive, but it's not necessarily predictive," he said.

Still, independents are key to the race, he said, because party registrations are so close. If party voters turn out in equal numbers, swing voters could determine whether Parker or Sinema win.

The closest correlation between the primary and the general is turnout, said Jim Haynes, president of the Phoenix-based polling company Behavior Research Center. Areas that drew heavy participation from independent voters in the primary are likely to stay that way in the general.

Precincts with the highest independent turnout were in north-central Phoenix, where both Parker and Sinema drew strong support from party voters because of their long ties there. Parker served near the area as Paradise Valley mayor and councilman. Sinema was a state legislator and social worker in the area. Both resigned this year to focus on their campaigns.

The north Phoenix Madison Heights precinct, which abuts Paradise Valley, had the highest independent participation, 15 percent. Precincts with independent turnout higher than 9 percent also occurred in west Mesa, south Tempe and Ahwatukee Foothills.

Residents in those neighborhoods typically have higher incomes, higher education and deeper roots in the community, Gullett said. Those factors are often linked to turnout.

One anomaly may be in the Tempe precincts around Arizona State University, according to Gullett, where primary participation was tiny. Those areas could become more active in the fall when students are settled in school, he said.

Many unknowns

Though it's harder to predict how independents will vote in the general election, Republic maps of primary returns show independents largely followed the party leanings in their neighborhoods.

Independents went red in Republican-leaning northeast Phoenix, west Mesa and west Chandler, while independents went blue in Democratic-leaning central Phoenix, Tempe and downtown Chandler.

Campaigns will use that information, coupled with voter profiles compiled by the state parties and past elections results, to determine voters and neighborhoods to target with direct mail, phone calls and door-knocking.

Haynes said he wasn't surprised to see independents leaning in the same direction as their party-registered neighbors. Some independents may be disaffected party members who still vote with the party they dropped.

But much remains unknown about many independents, he said, such as whether they are former Democrats, former Republicans or independents from the start. If he were a part of a campaign, Haynes said, his biggest effort would be to "find out who these people are and how to reach them."

Much work ahead

Though the Parker and Sinema campaigns see value in understanding the primary voting patterns, they promise to go after both independents and party voters and to compete across the district.

The candidates' work is cut out for them.

Jeanette Irwin was watering her garden while she talked politics. The 68-year-old retired teacher and registered Republican said she's open to voting for either candidate, though she likes what she's heard about Parker.

"I'm still deciding," Irwin said. "We have many times voted Democratic if the candidates are better. … I wouldn't vote party totally. I financially support the Republican Party, but hey, if somebody else is better ?"

Copyright 2012 The Arizona Republic|azcentral.com. All rights reserved.For more information about reprints & permissions, visit our FAQ's. To report corrections and clarifications, contact Standards Editor Brent Jones. For publication consideration in the newspaper, send comments to letters@usatoday.com. Include name, phone number, city and state for verification. To view our corrections, go to corrections.usatoday.com.

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