3 Florida justices win retention bids - San Francisco Chronicle

MIAMI (AP) — Three Florida Supreme Court justices easily won a retention bid Tuesday despite an unprecedented push by the Republican Party of Florida to oust them after several rulings the party disliked.

Justices R. Fred Lewis, Barbara Pariente and Peggy Quince each led about 67 percent to 33 percent with about 66 percent of the precincts reporting.

The Republican Party's executive committee had unanimously voted to oppose the three, warning they are "liberal" and "too extreme." It marks the first time a Florida political party has taken a position in a retention race.

"The very foundation of Florida's independent judicial system was threatened in this election. I am grateful that Florida voters once again demonstrated their faith in our fair and impartial judicial system," Lewis said in a statement Tuesday.

The justices' supporters, including some prominent Republicans, say the GOP is endangering judicial independence and that the three have done nothing that deserves removal.

"Floridians care deeply about ensuring that we have a fair and impartial judiciary untainted by partisan politics," Quince said in a statement.

Republican Gov. Rick Scott, who has been critical of the high court, would have appointed replacements from candidates recommended by a nominating panel, also appointed by the governor.

Emails and phone calls sent to the Republican Party of Florida and Americans for Prosperity, an organization that opposed the justices, were not immediately returned Tuesday night.

Several high-profile court decisions by the justices have angered Republicans, including one blocking a constitutional amendment from the 2010 ballot that was aimed at blunting the impact of the federal health care overhaul. Lawmakers reworded the amendment and put it on this year's ballot.

The GOP also accused the justices of "activism" after they overturned Republican Gov. Jeb Bush's private school voucher program in 2006 and ordered a new trial for a convicted killer. That ruling was reversed by the U.S. Supreme Court.

The justices' backers said Republicans were trying to "highjack" the independence of the court by politicizing the retention elections. They fear a repeat of what happened in Iowa two years ago when a late infusion of out-of-state money helped defeat three justices over a 2009 ruling that legalized same-sex marriage in that state.

The Florida chapter of the Washington, D.C.-based group Americans for Prosperity, a group formed by the conservative billionaire brothers Charles and David Koch, ran ads criticizing a pair of Supreme Court rulings dealing with the state's opposition to the national health care overhaul and property rights. It is also urged voters to sign a petition asking the justices to "stop legislating from the bench."

The justices also drew opposition from Restore Justice 2012, which grew out of a similar tea party-related organization that unsuccessfully campaigned against two justices in 2010.

Democratic Gov. Lawton Chiles appointed Pariente and Lewis in 1997 and 1998, respectively. He jointly named Quince with Republican Jeb Bush, then governor-elect, in 1998.

Florida adopted the nonpartisan merit-retention system for justices and appellate judges in the 1970s as a way of distancing the judicial system from politics.

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Florida passes bill to test state workers for drugs, alcohol

TALLAHASSEE, Florida (Reuters) - Florida lawmakers on Friday approved a measure allowing state agency heads to randomly test employees for illegal drugs, sending the bill to Governor Rick Scott, who is expected to sign it.

By a 26-14 vote, the Senate approved a measure, House Bill 1205, that allows up to 10 percent of a department's employees to be randomly tested for alcohol and other substance abuse.

"This is the 21st Century and drug abuse is rampant," said Senator Alan Hays, a Republican from Umatilla and Senate sponsor of the bill.

The bill would allow tests to be conducted every 90 days. It would prohibit department heads from firing employees who initially test positive for drugs but could require such employees to participate in rehabilitation programs.

Backers of the measure said the voluntary program mirrors efforts that have long been in place in private industry.

"I've had a drug-free workplace for more than 20 years," said Senator Jack Latvala, a Clearwater Republican who is chief executive of a printing company. "I believe that it has contributed to higher quality employees."

Critics, a coalition of Democrats and at least one conservative Republican, said the measure was an intrusive and unnecessary procedure. They also chided their Republican colleagues for a "big government" program that they said would improperly insert the government into an employee's personal life.

"We're talking less personal freedom without probable cause," said Senator Chris Smith, a Democrat from Fort Lauderdale. "This is more government intrusion and more costs."

"It is a waste of our time and our money," said Senator Larcenia Bullard, a Democrat from Miami.

Lawmakers in several states have passed similar measures in the past few years. Florida legislators last year voted to require applicants for federal public assistance to pass a test for illegal drugs. A federal judge barred enforcement of that law pending resolution of a challenge to its constitutionality.

The courts have generally upheld random drug testing for workers in jobs that involve public safety. But opponents say that broader testing of workers who are not suspected of wrongdoing violates their constitutional protection against unreasonable searches and seizure, and robs them of due process.

(Editing by Paul Thomasch)

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Florida next stop in now-scrambled Republican race (AP)

TAMPA, Fla. – A suddenly scrambled Republican presidential contest shifts to Florida after Newt Gingrich stopped Mitt Romney's sprint to the GOP nomination with a convincing victory in South Carolina.

The air of inevitability that surrounded Romney's candidacy is gone, at least for now. His rivals, led by Gingrich, have until Florida's Jan. 31 contest to prove South Carolina was no fluke.

Larger, more diverse and more expensive, Florida brings new challenges to Gingrich, who again must overcome financial and organizational disadvantages as he did in South Carolina, whose primary he won Saturday.

"We don't have the kind of money at least one of the candidates has. But we do have ideas. And we do have people," Gingrich, the former House speaker, told cheering supporters after his victory. "And we proved here in South Carolina that people power with the right ideas beats big money. And with your help, we're going to prove it again in Florida."

Romney struck a defiant tone before his own backers gathered at the South Carolina State Fairgrounds, saying: "I will compete in every single state." He wasted no time jabbing at Gingrich, saying: "Our party can't be led to victory by someone who also has never run a business and never led a state."

Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, third in South Carolina, pledged to compete in Florida and beyond. His presence in the race ensures at least some division among Florida's tea party activists and evangelicals, a division that could ultimately help Romney help erase any questions about his candidacy.

Texas Rep. Ron Paul likely will not be a factor in Florida. He already had said he was bypassing the state in favor of smaller subsequent contests.

As the first Southern primary, South Carolina has been a proving ground for Republican presidential hopefuls in recent years. Since Ronald Reagan in 1980, every Republican contender who won the primary has gone on to capture the party's nomination.

Returns from 95 percent of the state's precincts showed Gingrich with 41 percent of the vote to 27 percent for Romney. Santorum was winning 17 percent, Paul 13 percent.

But political momentum was the real prize with the race to pick an opponent to President Barack Obama still in its early stages.

Already, Romney and a group that supports him were on the air in Florida with a significant television ad campaign, more than $7 million combined to date.

Gingrich readily conceded that he trails in money, and even before appearing for his victory speech he tweeted supporters thanking them and appealing for a flood of donations for the Jan 31 primary. "Help me deliver the knockout punch in Florida. Join our Moneybomb and donate now," said his Internet message.

Aides to Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, had once dared hope that Florida would seal his nomination — if South Carolina didn't first. But that strategy appeared to vanish along with the once-formidable lead he held in pre-primary polls.

Romney swept into South Carolina as the favorite after being pronounced the winner of the lead-off Iowa caucuses, then cruising to victory in New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary.

But in the sometimes-surreal week that followed, he was stripped of his Iowa triumph — GOP officials there now say Santorum narrowly won — while former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman dropped out and endorsed Romney and Texas Gov. Rick Perry quit and backed Gingrich.

Romney responded awkwardly to questions about releasing his income tax returns, and about his investments in the Cayman Islands. Gingrich, the former speaker of the House, benefited from two well-received debate performances while grappling with allegations by an ex-wife that he had once asked her for an open marriage so he could keep his mistress.

By primary eve, Romney was speculating openly about a lengthy battle for the nomination rather than the quick knockout that had seemed within his grasp only days earlier.

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Republican hopefuls take fight to Florida (Reuters)

COLUMBIA, South Carolina (Reuters) – After a bruising clash in South Carolina, Republican presidential frontrunners Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich will take their battle to a bigger stage when the campaign moves to Florida on Sunday.

Gingrich, a former U.S. House of Representatives speaker, thrashed Romney in the South Carolina primary on Saturday, suggesting the race for their party's nomination and the right to face President Barack Obama in November may last months more.

The largest of the early voting states by far, Florida presents logistical and financial challenges that appear to give an advantage to Romney's well funded campaign machine.

But Gingrich has momentum after coming from behind in South Carolina to win around 40 percent of the vote, followed by Romney with 28 percent. Rick Santorum, a former U.S. senator, was in third with 17 percent and U.S. congressman Ron Paul in fourth with 13 percent.

"We proved here in South Carolina that people ... with the right ideas beats big money," Gingrich told supporters after his victory in the conservative state.

After strong performances in a series of debates, Gingrich was seen by South Carolina voters as the most likely Republican to beat Obama, a Democrat, in the November 6 election.

They also rejected millionaire former businessman Romney's pitch that he is the best bet to fix a broken U.S. economy and win the White House.

Romney and Gingrich, who have attacked each other mercilessly in a series of negative television ads since December, face off in a debate in Tampa, Florida, on Monday night.

ROMNEY TAX SOLUTION?

Romney has stumbled over questions about his personal finances in recent debates and acknowledged last week that he only pays a 15 percent tax rate, much lower than that of most working Americans.

The former Massachusetts governor has so far resisted calls from rivals, and even ally New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, to release his tax returns.

To try to put the tax return controversy behind him, the Romney campaign has a plan to settle the issue next week, a Republican official said.

That is part of a strategy to be more aggressive against Gingrich, a formidable debater who nevertheless has personal and professional baggage that the Romney team could exploit. Romney accuses Gingrich of being a Washington insider.

"The choice within our party has also come into stark focus. President Obama has no experience running a business and no experience running a state. Our party can't be lead to victory by someone who also has never run a business and never run a state," Romney said on Saturday.

Romney saw his aura of inevitability erode in South Carolina after leading opinion polls by 10 percentage points a week ago.

In Florida, he leads Gingrich by 40.5 percent to 22 percent, according to a poll of polls by RealClearPolitics.com. Santorum, a social conservative who is from Pennsylvania, is third with 15 percent.

Campaigns must spend at least $1 million each week to reach voters in the sprawling southern state, according to local political officials. Romney's allies have already spent $5 million, mostly on ads attacking Gingrich. No other candidate has a significant presence in the state.

(Editing by Paul Simao)

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The 25% Solution: How Romney Plans to Finish the GOP Race by Florida (Time.com)

An eight-vote, 25% victory may look weak, but Mitt Romney's narrow win in the Iowa caucuses Tuesday has his campaign charting a plan for ultimate victory by the time Florida Republicans hold their primary on Jan. 31. The strategy: use a dominating win in New Hampshire to cast weak victories in Iowa and South Carolina as a sign of Romney's inevitable nomination.

The expectation of a Romney victory in New Hampshire makes an overwhelming showing in next Tuesday's primary necessary. Romney's campaign is dispatching their candidate to towns with typically high primary turnout in southern and central New Hampshire, like those in Hillsborough and Belknap Counties. At the same time Romney's formidable New Hampshire operation is up with TV, radio and print ads, and is calling, e-mailing and snail-mailing likely primary voters.

Senator John McCain, who is campaigning for his 2008 primary rival, told voters in Peterborough, NH Wednesday that the goal was to "get this thing over with" by sending Romney to the Jan. 21 primary in South Carolina "with so much momentum that he can't be stopped." A 7 News/Suffolk University tracking poll Wednesday morning had Romney with 43% support in New Hampshire while his closest rival, Ron Paul, had 14%. That margin had widened in recent days, suggesting Romney's headed in the right direction but that he may need a blowout to beat expectations. (PHOTOS: The Iowa Caucus in Two Minutes)

Surrogates like McCain are a key part to the Romney plan to project inevitability. Endorsements typically don't guarantee votes, but the campaign believes that by dispatching known politicians state-wide in New Hampshire and South Carolina it can increase coverage by recognized figures, driving pro-Romney voters. In the Granite State, the campaign is dispatching New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte, Congressman Charlie Bass, former GOP candidate and Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, and former New Hampshire Gov. John Sununu. In South Carolina, Gov. Nikki Haley will join McCain to do events with Romney Thursday and Friday in moderate retirement districts in Charleston and Myrtle Beach. The campaign hopes Sen. Lindsey Graham will eventually back Romney, and will campaign for him; Graham says he has no plans to endorse a candidate yet.

The New Hampshire fight may get ugly, and the South Carolina one surely will. Romney supporters are watching for the expected push back from Newt Gingrich, who plummeted in the polls after pro-Romney groups attacked him in Iowa and elsewhere. The response will be to ignore the former Speaker and act presidential in the expectation that Gingrich will do as much damage to himself as he will to Romney. Rick Santorum has spent a lot of time in New Hampshire and is viewed as a threat; the attacks on him, Romney aides say, will focus on his time on Capitol Hill and in his role as a Washington power player after his 2006 Senate lossthe same attacks that worked against Gingrich. (PHOTOS: Battle for Iowa: the Final Days of the Caucus Campaign in Photos)

Romney's hope for South Carolina is that Gingrich, Santorum, Congressman Ron Paul and Texas Governor Rick Perry will split the conservative vote sufficiently to allow a low showing -- perhaps even less than the 25% he won in Iowa -- to give him a win. As he mounts rear-guard actions against the GOP attacks, Romney is focusing his forward efforts on Obama, attacking his record, running to the President's right on foreign policy and appealing to independents where that helps. In Peterborough, Romney praised FDR for starting the tradition of putting one's hand over one's heart while singing the national anthem, and said his foreign policy would be based on Harry Truman's principles. (MORE: The 25% Solution: How Romney Plans To Finish the GOP Race By Florida)

The last element to the Romney strategy for victory by the end of January is to talk as if a win is unlikely, even as he tries to project inevitability. The early voters of New Hampshire and South Carolina hate being taken for granted, so those around Romney are declaring they're hunkering down for the long term, well past Florida. After a Romney event in Manchester Wednesday, Gov. Sununu said soberly, "I think we have to get used to the idea that this is a long haul campaign." Unless Romney can help it.

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Perry's Debate Performance in Florida Leads to Herman Cain Upset (ContributorNetwork)

COMMENTARY | Rick Perry blew his opportunity to become the Republican nominee for president after his performance in the Florida Republican presidential debate on Thursday. Herman Cain benefited most from Perry's awkward performance in the televised debate before the Florida straw poll.

Cain destroyed Perry, capturing 37.1 percent of the votes to Perry's 15.4 percent and Mitt Romney's 14 percent, according to Yahoo! News. The Republicans attending the debate and the straw poll expressed the need for Republicans to separate themselves from the Democrats, who insist on spending the country into bankruptcy.

The unprecedented margin of victory is the perfect statement from the Florida Republicans. Perry has no chance of getting elected and Romney needs to adopt a more conservative approach. Cain's unpolished political skills do not overshadow his passion and his out of the box ideas.

Cain won this straw poll for several reasons. First is Cain's business sense. Cain is not looking to solve the problems with government intervention. His ideas are to unleash business from government regulations and drastically eliminate government waste.

Cain also made points with his 999 plan. The plan deviates from the flat tax or fair tax ideas being floated for a national sales tax. The plan does institute a 9 percent national sales tax, but it also lowers the tax rate for individuals to a 9 percent flat tax as well.

Instead of being bogged down in name calling and attacking his fellow Republicans, Cain has chosen the campaign to push his views of an American economy that allows businesses large and small to flourish and Americans who are willing to work.

Cain has struggled to attain national attention and this weekend's straw poll shows the discontent among Republicans. Why is he suddenly the flavor of the month in Florida? Perry is a stiff and an unappetizing prospect in a national election against the charisma of Barrack Obama and Romney is too moderate in tea party voter's minds.

The time is perfect for Herman Cain to make huge strides in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. Cain will need to enhance his presentation of his 999 plan and he will also need to adjust some key foreign policy issues to get the mainstream votes needed but his energy and desire make him a potential player in 2012.

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Cain upsets Perry in Florida Republican straw poll (Reuters)

ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) – Former pizza executive Herman Cain surprised rival Rick Perry with an upset victory on Saturday in a Republican presidential straw poll in Florida, dealing a disappointing loss to the Texas governor two days after a shaky debate performance.

Perry, leading in the polls for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012, had needed a victory in what was an early test of strength to salve the wounds left over from a debate with his rivals on Thursday in which he struggled.

Instead, former Godfather's Pizza executive Cain, who is far behind the two top-tier candidates Perry and Mitt Romney, won with 37 percent of 2,657 votes cast.

Perry was a distant second at 15 percent, just ahead of Romney, who won 14 percent despite not participating in the poll. Further back were Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman and Michele Bachmann.

Florida's straw poll is a nonbinding popularity poll and is significant only in terms of showing a candidate's strength in the state. The state contests to determine the Republican nominee do not start until early next year.

The Perry camp shrugged off the results.

"Cain won, we still have work to do," said Perry spokesman Mark Miner. "It's his day. The conservative message won today. We've been in this race for five weeks. We're going to continue campaigning hard."

Miner put the focus on Romney's third-place finish, saying Perry's chief rival has been running for president for years and is still not breaking through.

"It's more of what happened to Mitt Romney. He's not going to be crowned president of the United States. He's going to have to work for it. And after five and a half years he once again got rejected in a key state in the Republican primary process," Miner said.

Perry created doubts among some conservatives at a debate with his Republican rivals on Thursday that he admitted on Friday was not his best performance. He was criticized by his rivals for a Texas policy that allows children of illegal immigrants to pay in-state tuition rates at Texas colleges.

"Perry doesn't stand for our constitutional values," said delegate Kris Anne Hall, who voted for Cain. "Perry doesn't stand up against illegal immigration."

Perry surrogate Michael Williams, in addressing the straw poll delegates on Saturday before the vote, sought to do some damage control for the Texas governor, who had addressed an Orlando breakfast earlier before campaigning in Michigan.

"We're not electing a debater-in-chief, we're electing a commander-in-chief," said Williams, adding that no illegal immigrant in Texas had received a handout for a free education.

Cain, an African-American who promotes himself as a pragmatic problem-solver with a clear tax reform plan, eagerly welcomed the victory.

"This is a sign of our growing momentum and my candidacy that cannot be ignored," Cain said after his win.

Most political analysts give him no chance of winning the nomination.

But Florida's Republican Party had noted that since 1979 every winner of the Florida straw poll has gone on to become the party's nominee. Senator John McCain won it in the 2008 cycle and defeated Romney to become the nominee.

Florida, the most populous of the presidential swing states, is a critical test for both Republicans and Democrats. The Florida vote was so close in the 2000 election that it led to a ballot recount battle between Democrat Al Gore and Republican George W. Bush, who was ruled the winner.

Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, and Bachmann chose not to compete in the straw poll but since they took part in the debate and spoke earlier to delegates at the convention in Orlando, the Florida Republican Party put their names on the ballot.

Perry issued a statement after the straw poll results were revealed that was clearly aimed at Romney.

"Floridians and voters nationally want a candidate who is clear on the issues and talks honestly about the future, not someone who takes multiple sides of an issue and changes views every election season. Today's vote demonstrates that Floridians are energized and ready to help get America working again," he said.

(Editing by Will Dunham)

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Herman Cain Wins the GOP Florida Straw Poll in a Huge Upset (ContributorNetwork)

COMMENTARY | Traditionally the winner of the Florida Republican straw poll has gone on to win the Republican nomination for president. One can imagine the consternation of political pundits when the winner of the 2011 Florida straw poll was Herman Cain.

Herman Cain, the former CEO of Godfather's Pizza, the only black in the race, had thus far occupied a curious spot in the Republican field. He was respected, his speeches were electrifying, his ideas intriguing. But like Steve Forbes in 1996, Cain, a man without prior political experience, was not thought to be capable of winning. One does not aspire to be president of the United States as an entry-level political job.

That may have changed Saturday. Cain won the Florida straw poll decisively, at 37 percent. Texas Gov. Rick Perry, up until now the presumed front runner, was in a distant second place with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney just behind.

How was it that Cain, whom many see as the most interesting man in the race, came to win? The Washington Examiner suggests it was the speech Cain made before the Florida delegates that sealed the deal for him. Partly it was the principle that one gets votes only when one asks for them. Partly is that Cain, with his deep, booming voice and his cadence of a natural born orator, moved the crowd as none of the other candidates could.

Partly, Cain was a beneficiary of Perry's abysmal performance at the Fox News/Google debate. Many of the delegates had been planning on voting for Perry. But the debate performance had sown the seeds of doubt among the Florida delegates. So a new conservative alternative to Romney had to be found. It must have been to the consternation of Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum, both former office holders, that the man they choose was a former corporate CEO with no previous political experience.

Another person who must be taken aback is actor Morgan Freeman, who opined the previous day that the tea party was racist in its opposition to President Obama. How can he reconcile that with Cain's victory?

Cain still has long odds. But he has won for himself new respect, with access to media and, perhaps, money. He has turned his campaign to "can't win" into "has a shot." If he can take advantage of the opportunity, he could make history next year.

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Herman Cain walks away with victory in Florida straw poll (Daily Caller)

ORLANDO, Fla. – Herman Cain won the Florida straw poll Saturday, rounding out three days of Republican Party and presidential campaign events. Cain won first place with 37.1 percent of the nearly 3,000 votes cast, more than double the second-place finisher’s tally.

Texas Governor Rick Perry, an early favorite, came in a devastating second, with about 15 percent of the vote, after raising expectations. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney came in third with 14 percent.

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum followed with 10.9 percent, then Texas Rep. Ron Paul with 10.4 percent, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with 8.4 percent, and former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman at 2.3 percent.

Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann rounded out the bottom with 1.51 percent.

Perry was the presumed winner during the days preceding the straw poll, but Cain swiftly gained ground, relentlessly covering the convention center with volunteers, supporters and campaign signs.

On Saturday, the Cain paraphenalia was only rivaled by that of Santorum’s campaign.

Romney’s third-place finish came largely as a surprise. His name was still on the ballot although he did not actively compete in the straw poll or send a surrogate to stump in the hours preceding the vote.

Perry had a disappointing showing at Thursday night’s Fox News debate, and he took heat for his stance on immigration and for his inability to drive home his challenges to Romney.

Teresa Valdez, a delegate from Port Orange who voted for Santorum, told The Daily Caller she couldn’t support Perry because of his weakness on immigration.

Even Perry supporters admitted their candidate underperformed at the debate. Perry volunteer Vicki Maddox of Tampa is one of them, although she defended his economic record when talking to TheDC.

But at a breakfast event in Orlando Saturday morning, Perry took a subtle jab at Romney and the other candidates who did not campaign for the straw poll.

“I think that’s a big mistake,” he said. “I think the Florida straw poll is very important.”

Still, Perry only narrowly edged out a second-place finish over Romney, who said early on that his campaign would not be participating in straw polls.

Rep. Bachmann’s last-place finish was a blow to a flailing campaign. But in August, she too, confused Florida Republicans by announcing she wouldn’t actively campaign in the straw poll.

At the time, Florida Republican Party communications director Brian Hughes told The Daily Caller it was a “bad move.”

“The path to the White House goes through Florida,” Hughes said.

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Romney launches Florida primary campaign (Daily Caller)

Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney made his first Florida campaign stop in Boca Raton Tuesday night, visiting the home of Ned Siegel for a $1,000 per head fundraising dinner, reports The Palm Beach Post.

Siegel, a veteran of Florida Republican politics and current member of Romney’s Florida finance team, likens the candidate to former Florida governor Jeb Bush. “I think he’s the strongest presidential candidate when it comes to job creation and stimulating the economy,” said Siegel, praising Romney’s handle on national policy.

Romney will travel to Miami, Orlando, and St. Petersburg Wednesday, and will visit Sarasota Thursday. He currently leads most early Republican presidential polls.

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Romney to skip Iowa GOP, Florida straw polls (AP)

DES MOINES, Iowa – Presidential candidate Mitt Romney does not plan to compete in the Iowa Republican straw poll in August, an event he spent more than $1 million to win four years ago but that would divert time and money from a 2012 campaign designed to present him as a national candidate, aides confirmed to The Associated Press on Thursday.

The decision is a measure of how different a Romney 2012 campaign would be from 2008. It is also further evidence that the non-binding contests, of which Iowa's is the best-known and highest profile, are seen as optional for better-known candidates.

"It's a gamble that you put a lot of resources behind and it's not a predictor of who wins the caucuses. Sometimes it is. Sometimes it's not," said Charlie Black, a 30-year Republican presidential campaign strategist who advised John McCain's 2008 effort. "It's an opportunity for underdogs. It's a trap for front-runners."

Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, also is not planning to compete in any other of the many nonbinding straw polls in early nominating states, including Michigan or Florida. The deadline to register delegates for the Florida straw poll in September is Friday.

"We respect the straw poll process. In the last presidential campaign we were both strengthened as an organization and learned some important lessons by participating in them," Romney campaign spokesman Matt Rhoades said in a written statement provided to the AP. "This time we will focus our energies and resources on winning primaries and caucuses."

Romney has said he will campaign in Iowa, where he finished second in the 2008 caucuses. He visited Iowa last month, reconnecting with elements of the statewide network he built over the course of a year and with roughly $10 million in 2007. Romney aides also confirmed Thursday that he will participate in the Fox News Channel debate in Iowa scheduled two days before the Aug. 13 straw poll in Ames.

But deciding not to spend money on straw polls, an effort in Iowa that cost his campaign $1.5 million in 2007, is in line with what advisers have said will be a more disciplined Romney campaign, focused on winning the nomination with an economic message and allocating campaign dollars for the long haul.

"The campaign is making a smart decision to not compete in the upcoming series of straw polls," Brian Kennedy, Romney's Iowa steering committee chairman and a former state GOP chairman, said in a statement. "Mitt's focus is on winning the nomination, not the straw polls."

Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, a national GOP poll leader in early 2007, opted not to compete in the Iowa straw poll after reconsidering his stake in the caucuses, where his moderate social positions clashed with the state's evangelical, conservative base. McCain, who also led in early 2007 GOP national polls, opted out as well, although the decision involved the Arizona senator's shaky campaign finances.

Romney's decision could raise expectations for former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who has arrayed a robust and seasoned Iowa campaign staff, including Romney's 2007 straw poll planner. Pawlenty must win or do very well in the caucuses to have a chance at the nomination. Pawlenty's campaign affirmed his plan to compete in the Iowa straw poll after Romney's decision was announced.

"There are many, many presidential candidates that need to demonstrate organizational strength and support in Iowa, and the straw poll will be the place to do it," Iowa Republican Party Chairman Matt Strawn said.

Iowa's straw poll is the best-known of the many non-binding popularity contests held in early-nominating states. Iowa's has grown in 30 years from a small event of about 1,400 to a pre-caucus summer festival that draws thousands of participants and a contingent of national media to Iowa State University's Hilton Coliseum.

Straw polls can create buzz for little-known candidates, fuel fundraising efforts and stir up activists in early-voting states, including in South Carolina, which is known for a series of county-level GOP straw polls.

Critics say the events are stacked toward well-funded campaigns that can afford to buy blocs of tickets and ferry their supporters to the events.

Iowa Republican Party officials have pushed back against criticisms that its event is a money grab by the Iowa Republican Party. Candidates bid thousands of dollars for plots on the coliseum grounds to erect tents to feed and entertain supporters. The 2007 straw poll cost the state GOP roughly $600,000. Party officials also have lowered the ticket price by $5 to $30 since 2007.

"The notion that the straw poll is seven-figure windfall to the Republican Party of Iowa is simply not accurate. We hope to generate income and have money left over and organize for 2012," Strawn said.

Iowa's has had the effect of stamping front-runners and drive up expectations, as they did for George W. Bush with his victory at Ames in August 1999; likewise with Romney after his all-out effort in 2007.

But Iowa's straw poll also can hobble a candidate who does not meet expectations, as it did for then-Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback and former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson in 2007. And only twice in the four Iowa straw polls since the meager 1979 turnout has the eventual caucus winner won.

Mike DuHaime, who managed Giuliani's campaign, said other candidates need more than Romney does the lift a straw poll victory can create.

"It can help create the perception of a serious, national candidate. Most people already believe that about Gov. Romney," said DuHaime. "Why go out and spend a lot of money for something that doesn't carry with it something tangible?"

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