Migrant reform: Game of political chicken

(PNI) Two weeks after the U.S. Senate passed sweeping immigration reform, House Republicans pick up the political hot potato this week, and the question of the summer is this:

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Is 2013 the new 2006?

Clint Bolick says it shouldn't be.

Bolick is with that bastion of liberal thought, the Goldwater Institute. He sees immigration reform as Republicans' best hope for getting the things they most desire: a secure border, a better economy and a new system that allows more legal migration of the workers we need rather than the relatives of those already here.

So, will it happen?

"Am I optimistic?" he asks. "No."

Bolick is working with former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush to explain the reasons, both economic and political, that immigration reform makes sense for Republicans. The two men wrote a book, "Immigration Wars: Forging an American Solution," last year, and last week, they co-authored an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, making the Republican case for reform.

"I've spoken to a lot of conservative audiences, and when they come into the room, they are dead-set against immigration reform, which they think of solely as amnesty, and they leave being very, very open to the topic," Bolick told me. "I hope that the same arguments will pierce the House Republicans."

I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for that to happen. Politicians are deathly afraid of all those e-mails they get, written in capital letters.

Besides, House Speaker John Boehner has said that whatever passes the House will pass with a majority Republican vote. Given that just 14 of 46 Republican senators voted for the "Gang of Eight's" immigration bill, it seems unlikely that reform is on the way.

Bolick, however, says Republicans need to consider the impact of not passing a bill: a continuation of the things they hate -- illegal immigration and a porous border -- and a lost opportunity to boost the economy and reduce the federal deficit.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has estimated that the Senate bill would reduce the deficit by $900billion over the next two decades, given taxes that would be paid by new and legalized immigrants.

The bill overhauls the visa system to reduce chain migration -- which now accounts for two-thirds of all green cards issued as immigrants sponsor their extended family members -- and it increases visas for high-skilled workers. It also expands guest-worker programs, offering immigrants a way to come and go legally.

And, yes, it would give immediate legal status to most immigrants who are here illegally and a 13-year-path to citizenship, once certain border security triggers are met.

That'll be a non-starter in the Republican House; just legalization without a citizenship option is a no-go in the Democratic Senate.

Which leaves us, basically, back to 2006, when reform efforts died of terminal stalemate.

Brace yourselves, America, for one giant game of chicken, 2013-style. Republicans want better border security, but are they willing to agree to a path to citizenship to get it? Democrats want 11million immigrants out of the shadows, but are they willing to forgo a path to citizenship to make it happen?

Yep, 2006 it is.

Bolick says last year's presidential election, with Hispanic voters breaking nearly 4-1 for Barack Obama, was a big wake-up call for the Republican Party. Most House Republicans, however, are far more concerned with their own re-election prospects in 2014.

Bolick thinks their concern is overblown.

"The conservative base of the party, by and large, remains militantly opposed to any immigration reform, and they are extremely vocal and active in primaries, and as a result, they terrify members of Congress who ought to know better," he said.

"But if you look at the landscape, we don't have President Tom Tancredo. We don't have Congressman Randy Graf. We don't have Senator J.D. Hayworth. When it comes down to the actual elections, you find out that this extreme position is also very, very much a minority position."

Bolick says both Republicans and Democrats should have plenty of incentive to forge a compromise that will both solve a long-festering problem and provide a much-needed boost to the economy.

It sounds logical. It sounds laudable, that the men and women of goodwill -- these statesmen we elect -- could put aside their own petty concerns and find that elusive middle ground for the good of the country.

Hey, immigrants aren't the only ones who can dream.

Reach Roberts at laurie.roberts.arizonarepublic.com or 602-444-8635.

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