A potent combination of Congressional redistricting, retirements of fed-up lawmakers and campaign spending by special interests is pushing out moderate members of both parties, leaving a shrinking corps of consensus builders. Middle-of-the-road Democrats, known as Blue Dogs, have been all but eviscerated from the House over the last few elections, and now three who have been in the Republicans’ cross hairs for years are fighting uphill battles for re-election. Among Republicans, Senator Olympia J. Snowe of Maine and Representative Steven C. LaTourette of Ohio, weary of partisan battles, chose to retire this year, and some, like Representative Charles Bass of New Hampshire, have found themselves moving away from the center to survive, a technique employed by Senator Richard G. Lugar of Indiana, who found it was too little too late and lost his primary campaign. “We don’t have a Congress anymore, we have a parliament,” said Representative Jim Cooper of Tennessee, one of the last Blue Dogs. “We moderates are an endangered species, but we are also a necessary ingredient for any problem solving.” The House is more polarized than at any time in the last century, according to models built by Keith Poole, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Rochester, and Howard Rosenthal, professor emeritus of social sciences at Princeton University. The last time the Senate was this divided, according to the joint research, was a century ago. While Americans say they want an end to partisan bickering in Washington, Mr. Cooper said, they vote to maintain the system that has created it. “It’s like Hollywood movies,” he said. “Most people say there is too much violence and sex, but those are the only tickets that sell.” Representatives Larry Kissell of North Carolina, John Barrow of Georgia and Jim Matheson of Utah, all Blue Dogs, appear to be losing ground in their races for re-election. Because of redistricting, their constituencies have become less familiar with them, making them easier targets for outside groups that have been spending heavily on ads to unseat them. Their poll numbers have been dropping throughout this cycle. Many other more moderate Democrats, including Representatives Dan Boren of Oklahoma and Mike Ross of Arkansas, and Senators Ben Nelson of Nebraska and Kent Conrad of North Dakota, chose to hand over their member pins rather than seek re-election. In theory, the dearth of moderates means it will be even harder next year for Congress — which failed to put together even mundane measures like farm and highway legislation without a massive fight this session — to pass bills. But Congress is facing so many potentially calamitous tax and budget issues that another theory is brewing: a combination of Democrats, once adverse to changes to entitlements, and senior Republicans may form some sort of new deal-making consensus through sheer necessity to avoid large tax increases and massive military cuts. “If Republicans think by embracing the Tea Party it is a loser politically,” said Senator Charles E. Schumer of New York, the No. 3 Democrat. “it may strengthen the hands of the mainstream conservatives” to make deals with the 10 or so moderate Democrats in the Senate who are interested in reforming the Medicare program and other entitlements. Further, there is an emerging push on the Democratic side toward the center among many of their Senate candidates, like Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota, Joe Donnelly in Indiana, Tim Kaine in Virginia and Richard Carmona in Arizona, who all are running as pragmatic centrists willing to work with Republicans For this to happen, according to moderates from both parties and several Congressional experts, the next president will have to make conciliation a top priority. “The next president has to channel Lyndon Johnson and seize the levels of power and make Congress work,” said former Representative Jane Harman, a moderate Democrat from California who resigned last year to become the director of the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington. “Obama talked about it and tried it briefly, but would sustained effort have helped with this Congress? I think so.”
