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Thursday, November 24, 2011

Iowa Up for Grabs Among Republican Voters (ContributorNetwork)

The Family Leader's Thanksgiving Family Forum helped give voters in Des Moines, Iowa, an emotional look at six of the eight major candidates for president in 2012. Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman were the only no-shows. Hosted by local conservative Bob Vander Plaats, ABC News reports the Family Leader event allowed candidates to reveal stories about their religious faith and conservative values.

Here's a look at why the Family Leader event is so important to American politics at this stage in the race.

Timing

The Iowa caucuses are just over six weeks away. They are the first statewide selection process for the 2012 Republican candidates. Delegates to the national convention will be selected based upon Iowa's results.

The Thanksgiving Family Forum provided a chance for voters to see and hear candidates' stances on conservative issues. It also gives GOP leaders a chance to voice personal stories about their faith. The Des Moines Register reports several candidates teared up telling their stories.

Herman Cain talked about Stage 4 cancer. Rick Santorum spoke of his struggles with his daughter's incurable illness. Rep. Michele Bachmann shared a story about her parent's divorce. Newt Gingrich told of the disabled child he knows during a turning point in his life.

The Family Leader hosted the event to give voters something more than just politics to talk about when it comes to political candidates. Often they open up as to why they share conservative values with personal stories.

Location

Des Moines is the population center of Iowa and the largest city. The metro area has around 563,000 people while Iowa itself has around 3 million inhabitants. Des Moines has between 18 and 19 percent of the state's entire population. Having an intimate event like this in a prominent part of the first voting state is crucial to gauging voter opinion.

The New York Times reported Mike Huckabee won most of Iowa, but the Des Moines area was split between Huckabee and Romney. In 2008, there were seven viable candidates as Tom Tancredo dropped out two weeks before the Iowa caucuses. Republican nominee Sen. John McCain was a distant fourth in Iowa before garnering his party's nomination.

Polling

Iowa is a conservative stronghold in America. Those candidates that showed up in Iowa may see a sudden surge in the latest polls in the state. The Christian Science Monitor reports several polls, including one conducted by Bloomberg, show a tight four-way race in Iowa between Gingrich, Cain, Romney and Rep. Ron Paul. Gaining any edge with conservative voters in a close race may be important. The New York Times also shows a close race among four candidates.

Nationally, a Reuters poll suggests Gingrich has gained eight percentage points over the past week. Gingrich came in with 24 percent of likely Republican voters while Romney had just 22 percent. Any polls taken in the next week may see a bump in candidates that showed up at the Family Leader forum. Romney's campaign has been focused in New Hampshire. Events leading up to elections can only heighten awareness for voters and make the process more viable.

William Browning is a research librarian specializing in U.S. politics. Born in St. Louis, Browning is active in local politics and served as a campaign volunteer for President Barack Obama and Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill.


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