TheDC on TV: David Martosko on the GOP field after the Orlando debate (Daily Caller)

On Canada’s Sun News Network Saturday morning, Daily Caller executive editor David Martosko handicapped the GOP primary field with presenter Brian Dunstan in the wake of Thursday night’s Republican candidate debate in Orlando, Florida.

“It’s important to note that there have been some successful candidates who never entered the race until even October or November, a year before the election,” Martosko said. “So it’s definitely not too late for someone else to come in and claim the mantle of being the ‘not Romney’ candidate.”

The large number of primary debates, he said, have “given Ron Paul an unprecedented opportunity to strut his stuff and be taken seriously. In past election cycles Ron Paul has been a bit of a parlor joke … this extreme, out-there candidate that nobody wants to admit they like. But suddenly he’s become a bit more fashionable, and I think [other than Mitt Romney] he’s been the big winner in this.”

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Why Perry Dominates GOP Field by Double Digits in Latest Poll (ContributorNetwork)

ANALYSIS | It wasn't so long ago that Texas governor Rick Perry's staffers were fielding questions in Austin and telling everyone that the charismatic politician wasn't even considering a run for the Oval Office. But that was at the end of May and early June. Perry became a presidential candidate on August 13, and the general low-level support that had previously been shown toward a crowded field of Republican candidates -- all seemed bunched together under the 20 percent mark without a definite leader -- quickly morphed into a 12-point lead for the Texan.

According to the most recent Gallup poll, Gov. Perry leads all contenders for the 2012 GOP nomination with 29 percent support from Republican and Republican-leaning independents. But more impressively, he has opened up a lead over former national poll frontrunner Mitt Romney by 12 percentage points. Third place is held by fellow Texan, Congressman Ron Paul, who, following a tremendous amount of coverage of the fact that he was not being covered by the media (and in some cases intentionally), moved up in the poll to pull in 13 percent. Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann scored only 10 percent support for a fourth place slot despite her recent victory at the Ames Straw Poll in Iowa, not to mention enjoying second-place status to Romney in several recent national polls.

But what changed the dynamic of the grouping and their order of preference? Apparently, it was Gov. Perry's commitment to actually run, as opposed to the rumblings and the rumors that he was courting financial supporters and merely considering the possibility of a run for office. There is evidence that poll numbers reflect that to be the case.

In July, when speculation of a possible candidacy was at its highest, support for Perry in a national Gallup Poll indicated that he had 18 percent support as opposed to Romney, a declared candidate, who had 23 percent support. Romney lost six percent of GOP support in one month. Bachmann, who shares an electorate base with Perry, lost three points.

Rick Perry jumped 11 points in the poll.

At the same time, it should be pointed out that preference for particular candidates shifted, while the overall percentage showing preference remained nearly the same. This was reflected in the fact that the number of undecided voters remained relatively static. In July, 18 percent of respondents noted they had "No Preference." By August, those showing indecision or no preference was 17 percent. This would indicate that Perry's commitment to run altered Republican respondent preference for those who had a preferential candidate, a conclusion that can be bolstered by the uptick in support for MItt Romney when he announced his candidacy in early June. Polls had previously shown Romney in a neck-and-neck battle with undeclared candidate Sarah Palin (with numbers relatively unchanged from the dropping out of the race in mid-May of poll frontrunners Donald Trump and Mike Huckabee) until he declared his candidacy on June 2. Within days, as a list of polls at Real Clear Politics shows, Romney jumped to a sizeable lead of Palin.

So does this mean that Rick Perry should worry about the late entrance into the race of other candidates? Possibly. Among them is the aforementioned Palin, whose candidacy, though uncertain at present, brings with it national name recognition and a ready-made financial support system (SarahPAC). Other names being bandied about by the press are former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani, former New York governor George Pataki, and New Jersey governor Chris Christie.

The Gallup Poll is the third major national poll to show Perry with a double digit lead in the GOP nomination race. Rasmussen Reports polled Perry with an 11-point lead over Romney, while Public Policy Polling showed Perry leading Romney by 10 points.

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AP-GfK Poll: Most Republicans happy with GOP field (AP)

By KASIE HUNT and JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press Kasie Hunt And Jennifer Agiesta, Associated Press – 2 hrs 47 mins ago

WASHINGTON – After grousing for months, Republicans are growing more satisfied with their choices for president and, so far, they like what they're hearing from the newest candidate, Texas Gov. Rick Perry.

An Associated Press-GfK poll released Friday found that two-thirds of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents are pleased with the party's presidential field, compared with just half in June. And they're paying more attention, with 52 percent expressing a "great deal" of interest in the GOP nomination fight — compared with 39 percent earlier this summer — after a period that saw Perry enter the race and Michele Bachmann win a test vote in Iowa, the lead-off caucus state, threatening Mitt Romney's standing at the top of the pack.

The poll shows Perry — who has never run a national campaign and is just now introducing himself to most people — benefiting from wall-to-wall news coverage over the past few weeks as he became a candidate and jostled the until-then sleepy contest. Just 12 percent of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents have a negative impression of the Texas governor. And 63 percent of Republicans view him in a positive light, compared with 33 percent in June.

Beyond that, Republicans didn't change their impressions much about Romney. Nearly 2 in 3 still view the former Massachusetts governor positively, while just under a quarter view him negatively as he runs a cautious, methodical campaign that's facing its first true test in Perry.

Bachmann, the Minnesota congresswoman who won the Iowa straw poll, got roughly the same marks as Romney now that she's boosted her national profile. Both her positive and negative ratings rose in the two months since she entered the contest and started to become better known.

Broadly, the results suggest that Republicans are coming around to the idea that there may be a winner in the bunch after being less than enthusiastic for months and even though party elders continue to grouse that the field lacks a candidate strong enough to take on President Barack Obama. As recently as this week, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush — again — insisted they weren't running for president despite urging from supporters.

Sarah Palin, the GOP's 2008 vice presidential nominee, says she'll announce in late September whether she will run.

Stay-at-home mom Jennifer Bevington of Toledo, Ohio, is among those Republicans who like what they see, saying: "Out of the top three — Michele Bachmann, Perry and Romney — of who's running, they should be able to come up with a good candidate."

Mary Parish of Troy, Tenn., had doubted for months that any of the candidates in the field were strong enough to run the country or topple Obama. Now, the retired convenience store manager says: "I like Rick Perry. I think he's a Christian, a good Christian person. I like what he stands for, and I think he's strong enough to beat Obama."

Still, while Republicans like them are warming up to the field, the overall population still has significant doubts and is largely unimpressed, which could bode well for Obama come the general election.

Just 41 percent of all those surveyed expressed satisfaction with the official and unofficial GOP candidates, about the same as in June, and only Rudy Giuliani, the former New York mayor toying with a candidacy, get significantly higher favorable marks than unfavorable ones among certain or possible presidential contenders. And no Republican candidate — declared or otherwise — is viewed favorably by a majority of people.

This GOP field has been remarkably slow to form as Republicans look to challenge a politically vulnerable Democratic incumbent saddled with high unemployment, rampant foreclosures and soaring debt.

Now, five months before the Republican nomination contests are to begin, the field is largely set with Romney, Perry and Bachmann clustered near the top of many surveys, followed by Texas Rep. Ron Paul. Nearly everyone else is languishing far behind, including former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, former pizza executive Herman Cain and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.

The poll also found:

_Among Republicans who back the tea party, 80 percent view Bachmann favorably while 74 percent see Perry positively. Among those Republicans who don't back the coalition, just 37 percent have positive impressions of Bachmann and 48 percent of Perry.

_Romney earns positive reviews from a broader group of Republicans than Bachmann or Perry do. Majorities of both conservative and more liberal Republicans hold favorable views of him, which suggests he may be able to stitch together a broader coalition of supporters than his rivals to win the GOP nomination.

_Negative impressions of Romney among all adults grew 6 percentage points, topping 4 in 10 for the first time in AP-GfK polling. That's a warning sign for Romney as he executes a strategy to run a general election campaign focused on Obama and the economy while appealing to a broad spectrum of voters.

_Huntsman's negative rankings crept upward during the first few months of his campaign, and he was the only GOP candidate viewed unfavorably by as many Republicans as view him positively.

The poll was conducted Aug. 18-22 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellular telephone interviews with 1,000 adults nationwide and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. The poll included interviews with 408 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents; the margin of error for these results is plus or minus 6.4 percentage points.

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Poll results: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com

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Associated Press writers Ken Thomas and Stacy A. Anderson and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.

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Obama campaign adviser Axelrod needles GOP field (AP)

WASHINGTON – President Barack Obama's chief campaign strategist is dismissive of the Republicans who want his boss' job, saying they are eager to criticize the Democratic incumbent without offering substantive ways to help the country.

David Axelrod says it's too early to start sizing up the competition, but he took on the emerging field of candidates when asked to assess the GOP's first major debate of the campaign season last Monday in New Hampshire. Republicans at that forum condemned Obama's handling of the economy and pledged to repeal his health care overhaul.

"There seemed to be a unanimity of antipathy toward the president," said Axelrod, who left the White House this year to return to Chicago to work on the re-election campaign. "I didn't hear a lot of ideas," but rather "a lot of pat partisan platitudes," he told CNN's "State of the Union."

Axelrod seemed intent on going after former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the perceived front-runner, and citing the support that former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, a Republican who was Obama's ambassador to China, had given the president.

Romney, who sought his party's presidential nomination in 2008, already faces questions from his rivals about his record of changing positions on social issues including abortion and gay rights, shifts that have left conservatives questioning his sincerity. In addition, Romney championed a health care law enacted in Massachusetts that's similar to Obama's national health overhaul, which conservatives loathe.

"It's not unusual in politics for people who are ambitious to change their points of views on fundamental things to try and win an election," Axelrod said in the broadcast interview. "But that's not what people want in the president of the United States."

By contrast, he said, Obama is "one of the most consistent people that I've ever met."

Huntsman's moderate stances on some issues and his service in the Obama administration could hurt him with the Republican Party's right-leaning base.

Axelrod said that when he was in China in the fall of 2009, he had a chance to talk with Huntsman. "He was very effusive about what the president was doing. He was encouraging on health care. He was encouraging on the whole range of issues. He was a little quizzical about what was going on in his own party. And you got the strong sense that he was going to wait until 2016 for the storm to blow over."

Axelrod said that "obviously circumstances change. So I was surprised when he emerged as a candidate. But certainly I take him seriously."

Later Sunday, Huntsman spokesman Tim Miller responded: "Axelrod's comments are absurd. Gov. Huntsman's record on health care and the economy (was) the opposite of President Obama's top-heavy, government-centric, failed approach. That is the record he will run on."

Assessing the GOP debate, Axelrod said Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, "who was relatively unknown, probably did herself some good there."

He noted that some politicians who weren't yet candidates may join the race. "That will add to the fun," he said.

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GOP field anything but steady as NH debate nears (AP)

WASHINGTON – Newt Gingrich's campaign defections are just the latest tremor in a constantly shifting GOP presidential landscape that craves some steadiness as a big, early New Hampshire debate nears.

Rivals already were trying to poach Gingrich's donors and top supporters Friday, even as the former House speaker said he would keep campaigning despite the resignations of his top advisers and entire Iowa paid staff. Party insiders eyed the likely entry of Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota and a possible bid by Texas Gov. Rick Perry.

Mitt Romney's decision to skip the Iowa straw poll in August, meanwhile, reinforced his image as a front-runner willing to pick his shots. And potential candidate Sarah Palin again lent a circus atmosphere to the entire GOP family — this time indirectly — when Alaska released thousands of pages of emails from her days as governor.

In short, it was a typical week in the GOP's free-wheeling nominating process. The field is anything but set, and there's no clear picture of who will emerge to challenge President Barack Obama in 2012.

Gingrich spoke publicly Friday for the first time after the mass resignation of his top aides. Several of them said they were frustrated because he was devoting insufficient time to the nitty-gritty work of meeting and galvanizing supporters in early voting states such as Iowa.

Gingrich told reporters outside his suburban Virginia home that he was committed to campaigning "very intensely" for the White House. He attributed his aides' departure to disagreements about strategy.

"There is a fundamental strategic difference between the traditional consulting community and the kind of campaign I want to run," he said. "We'll find out over the next year who's right."

Gingrich received a vote of confidence from at least one high-profile backer: Georgia Gov. Nathan Deal, his campaign chairman in his old home state. "When the going gets rough, I don't cut and run on my friends," Deal said.

That comment took only a little of the sting from his predecessor's jump from Gingrich's campaign to that of former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty. Sonny Perdue had been a national co-chairman for the Gingrich campaign.

Pawlenty also picked up support Friday from Al Hubbard, who directed the National Economic Council under President George W. Bush.

Republicans hoped the campaign focus might shift toward policy and what they consider Obama's shortcomings on Monday, when seven candidates plan to debate in Manchester, N.H.

Joining Romney, Pawlenty, Gingrich and Bachmann will be Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, former pizza company executive Herman Cain, and former Sen. Rick Santorum, who unveiled a 60-second radio ad Friday criticizing the federal deficit.

Notably absent will be former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, who has been campaigning unofficially for several weeks, mostly in New Hampshire. Huntsman recently said he will join debates if he officially enters the race.

Meanwhile, he told reporters in New Hampshire, "we're here in people's homes, we're open to all of you, we're open to citizens that drop by and talk to us and ask whatever question they want."

Skipping the debate poses some risk for Huntsman, who recently stepped down as U.S. ambassador to China. He is virtually ignoring Iowa and needs to do well in New Hampshire if he runs, strategists say. But skipping the debate gives Huntsman more time to sharpen his responses to those who criticize his role in Obama's administration and portions of his record as governor.

In Iowa, party insiders were not surprised by Romney's decision to skip the well-known Ames straw poll. But it will have ramifications nonetheless.

Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, spent more than $1 million to win the straw poll four years ago. But he won neither the Iowa caucus nor the presidential nomination, and this time he is placing less emphasis on the Hawkeye state.

The straw poll "is an opportunity for underdogs," said veteran GOP strategist Charlie Black, and "a trap for front-runners."

Another party strategist, Virginia-based Mike McKenna, said the modest interest that Romney, Huntsman and Gingrich are showing in Iowa "is testament to the amount of juice that Michele Bachmann has there." Bachmann, a tea party favorite, appeals strongly to social conservatives who turn out heavily for the GOP caucus.

Long before Romney announced he was skipping the Iowa Republican Party straw poll, Pawlenty was planning a major investment in the event, which is a state GOP fundraiser. Pawlenty has hired Romney's 2007 straw poll coordinator and is reserving buses to ferry supporters to Iowa State University for the daylong event.

With Romney out of the Ames poll, and Gingrich not expected to participate, Pawlenty would have high expectations to win. But the payoff might be minimal without top-tier candidates to defeat, said Will Rogers, Gingrich's Iowa political director until he resigned last month.

"It's all on him to do well, but he doesn't have the opportunity to beat someone big," Rogers said.

Pawlenty spokesman Alex Conant said the presidential field "is still coming together," and it's "premature to start weighing expectations" for a summer straw poll.

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Associated Press writers Tom Beaumont in Des Moines, Brian Bakst in St. Paul and Shannon McCaffrey in Atlanta contributed to this report.

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