Does the South Carolina Primary Change Anything? (ContributorNetwork)

COMMENTARY | The political atmosphere in my house is always interesting. I am a far-right person who feels the Republican Party does me a disservice every year, while my wife leans left and is slowly dipping her toes into voting Republican. As a social studies teacher, I love this time of year and find the discussion of elections, primaries and caucuses to be highly entertaining. And though I dislike much of our national political situation, I love living in South Carolina during primary season because it is the rare time that all eyes are here, at the home of the "first in the South" primary.

This year has been especially exciting leading to Saturday. Mitt Romney's and Rick Santorum's to the wire finish in Iowa will be discussed in political science classes for a while, I am sure. Meanwhile, Romney pulled a strong lead in New Hampshire, which was to be expected. Everyone began discussing South Carolina and our great claim to fame: the person who wins South Carolina wins the Republican nomination, election cycle after election cycle. All Romney had to do was win here and many pundits said it would be all over.

So what happened? Somehow, Newt Gingrich pulled out a victory in South Carolina. Now, instead of Romney being the assured victor of the Republican nomination, it is a contest considered wide open. Three states have chosen three winners. This completely blows my mind. I can't recall this happening in my life time in the Republican elections.

I must confess, I found this year's crop of candidates extremely disappointing. With voter dissatisfaction at an all-time high for all of Washington, the Republicans needed a decent candidate who could gain broad support across a spectrum of voters. Instead, we got niche candidates.

Santorum appeals to the social conservatives, which I certainly am, but has little excitement in his candidacy outside of his sweater vest collection, which I hear has a Web page devoted to it. Romney is a typical politician whose opinions change with the wind. He sounds good but when you pay any attention to his record, it is nearly impossible to tell where he would stand on issues.

My wife continues to remind me it is normal in politics, and I can't disagree, but I wish for more. Gingrich shot to national prominence 17 years ago as he led the Republicans to congressional victory but was cast out in a humiliating coup, when he was revealed to have all the moral fortitude of the president he led the charge to impeach.

Finally, there is Ron Paul. Paul is fun and has a great concept in returning to the Constitution, as a supreme guide for America. Meanwhile, he continues promoting an isolationist approach to world affairs, which would have been welcome 100 years ago but hardly seems possible in a world with satellite TV, cellphones and the Internet.

So where is the Republican Party headed now? Though many pundits have claimed recently the Republican Party is on the verge of collapse, due to the fractured primary, the majority of Republican-leaning voters will rally behind the eventual nominee, for fear of four more years of record unemployment, Obamacare and the constant downgrading of our allies to woo our enemies.

I don't believe the nominee will be chosen soon. This may be one of those once in a lifetime seasons where most of the states get a say, before a definite leader is seen. Before anyone says this is proof the Republican Party is in jeopardy, I remind you of the 2008 Democratic primary season, in which I was sure the hateful rhetoric between Hillary Clinton's and Obama's camps would tear the party apart. Instead, they now own the White House. This could be an interesting election year.

View the original article here

Anything can-happen feel in Iowa's 2012 vote (AP)

ANAMOSA, Iowa – The race for the Republican presidential nomination is deeply unsettled with an anything-can-happen feel six weeks before Iowans start the state-by-state process of choosing a GOP challenger for President Barack Obama.

Hoping to sway the many voters who are still undecided, most of the contenders visited the state in the past week and the pace of campaigning is certain to accelerate after Thanksgiving, when the monthlong sprint to the Jan. 3 caucuses begins. A crush of new TV ads is certain. Expect mailboxes filled with brochures and repeated visits by candidates to diners, town squares and other must-stop venues.

"People are getting close to decision time," former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, one of several candidates whose bids depend on a strong Iowa showing, told The Associated Press. "You're going to see some coalescing in the next couple of weeks."

A recent poll found that 60 percent of Republicans who plan to participate in the caucuses are willing to change their minds and 10 percent are fully undecided. That Bloomberg News survey showed a four-way race: Clustered at the top were Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Herman Cain and Ron Paul, candidates whose positions, backgrounds and personalities run the gamut. Languishing far behind were Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann, who at one point enjoyed huge bursts of support.

Iowa's outcome matters because it will shape the contest in New Hampshire, which holds its primary Jan. 10, and in states beyond.

Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, has started stepping up his efforts in Iowa after playing it cautiously all year. He plans to return to the state Wednesday after skipping a multi-candidate forum in Des Moines on Saturday night.

Nearly all his rivals, promoting themselves as a viable alternative to Romney, gathered on one stage to discuss how their religious faith influences their public life before a large and influential audience of social conservatives.

Considered the one to beat because of his strength on several fronts, Romney spent the weekend in New Hampshire.

In Iowa, he's hoping that social conservatives who make up the GOP's base will splinter their support among the crowded field of candidates who are considered more conservative than Romney. No one has emerged as the consensus choice of those conservatives, though many are trying.

They include Cain, a Georgia businessman, and Gingrich, the former U.S. House speaker, who seem just as poised to break out of the pack as they are to fade. Both are seen as attractive for a Republican electorate craving a candidate who will take it to Obama in a no-holds-barred style. But both also are trying hard to weather increased scrutiny.

Cain continues to fight decade-old sexual harassment allegations, along with questions about his grasp of an array of policies. Iowans don't seem to be punishing him for any of it, so far. He cheerfully greeted a crowd of more than 200 at a Dubuque restaurant Tuesday on just his second trip to Iowa in the past three months.

"Herman Cain's support at this point has intensified," Johnson County GOP Chairman Bob Anderson said. "There's been no decrease in his level of support based on the controversy that's erupted."

But Cain has little campaign structure in the state and a tiny staff. Despite the upbeat tone of his visit, he did little outreach to influential Republican activists. He took no audience questions in Dubuque, spent most of his time in Iowa recording a campaign advertisement and headlined a five-minute news conference spent primarily defending an awkward response to an interview question about Libya a day earlier.

Like Cain, Gingrich returned to Iowa last week to find himself on the defensive over a number of issues, including the roughly $1.6 million he received as a consultant to Freddie Mac, the federally backed mortgage giant detested by conservatives. He found himself spending the bulk of his three-day trip trying to portray his history with the company as a sign of valuable experience.

"It reminds people that I know a great deal about Washington," Gingrich said. "We just tried four years of amateur ignorance, and it didn't work very well. So having someone who actually knows Washington might be a really good thing."

As the week ended, Gingrich introduced a website that collects, and provides answers for, what he long has claimed are myths about his background and explanations for policy position changes throughout the years. Among the issues Gingrich addresses are his admissions of adultery and divorce, topics likely to rile cultural conservatives in Iowa.

Paul, a Texas congressman, returned to the state at week's end to find that he was steadily drawing sizable crowds to restaurants and community centers in small towns such as Vinton and Anamosa, where audiences applauded his proposal to cut $1 trillion from the federal deficit his first year in office, primarily by vastly reducing U.S. foreign aid.

Long dismissed by the GOP establishment, the libertarian-leaning candidate is now turning heads beyond his hard-core followers four years since his failed 2008 bid. This year, he's running a more mature Iowa campaign and it's showing. He finished a close second to Minnesota Rep. Bachmann in August test vote, an indication of his stronger organization.

Texas Gov. Perry, trying to get back on track after a damaging few weeks that has affected his once-robust fundraising, is accelerating his already aggressive TV advertising schedule in Iowa and is making government reform, as well as assailing Obama, the cornerstone of his campaign in hopes of rebounding.

"Washington's broken, and needs a complete overhaul," Perry says in a new ad. "Replacing one Washington insider with another won't change a thing. If you want an outsider who'll overhaul Washington, then I'm your guy."

It's a message that has some sticking with Perry, despite his troubles.

"I haven't given up on Rick Perry, personally," said Hamilton County Republican Chairman Mark Greenfield, who supports Perry. "He's a lower-tier candidate now. But he's the one person who can turn the economy around if he can only clarify his message."

Bachmann, too, is fighting to come back with a second act after a blazing hot summer and a victory in the Iowa GOP straw poll. Some of her evangelical base has drifted elsewhere, but she's still focused on trying to get them to rally behind her like they did former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, the Iowa caucus winner in 2008.

"It is amazing to me how God uses those challenges to shape your life," Bachmann said of her parents' divorce, noting during the Saturday forum how it influenced her decision to be a foster parent to more than 20 children in addition to her five biological children.

The candidate who may stand to gain from Bachmann's inability to wrap up the evangelical vote is Santorum. The former Pennsylvania senator is the only Republican with staunch socially conservative credentials competing hard in Iowa who hasn't enjoyed a burst of support this year.

That's not for lack of trying.

He's essentially camped out in the state for months and has campaigned in all 99 Iowa counties on a shoestring budget.

View the original article here

GOP field anything but steady as NH debate nears (AP)

WASHINGTON – Newt Gingrich's campaign defections are just the latest tremor in a constantly shifting GOP presidential landscape that craves some steadiness as a big, early New Hampshire debate nears.

Rivals already were trying to poach Gingrich's donors and top supporters Friday, even as the former House speaker said he would keep campaigning despite the resignations of his top advisers and entire Iowa paid staff. Party insiders eyed the likely entry of Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota and a possible bid by Texas Gov. Rick Perry.

Mitt Romney's decision to skip the Iowa straw poll in August, meanwhile, reinforced his image as a front-runner willing to pick his shots. And potential candidate Sarah Palin again lent a circus atmosphere to the entire GOP family — this time indirectly — when Alaska released thousands of pages of emails from her days as governor.

In short, it was a typical week in the GOP's free-wheeling nominating process. The field is anything but set, and there's no clear picture of who will emerge to challenge President Barack Obama in 2012.

Gingrich spoke publicly Friday for the first time after the mass resignation of his top aides. Several of them said they were frustrated because he was devoting insufficient time to the nitty-gritty work of meeting and galvanizing supporters in early voting states such as Iowa.

Gingrich told reporters outside his suburban Virginia home that he was committed to campaigning "very intensely" for the White House. He attributed his aides' departure to disagreements about strategy.

"There is a fundamental strategic difference between the traditional consulting community and the kind of campaign I want to run," he said. "We'll find out over the next year who's right."

Gingrich received a vote of confidence from at least one high-profile backer: Georgia Gov. Nathan Deal, his campaign chairman in his old home state. "When the going gets rough, I don't cut and run on my friends," Deal said.

That comment took only a little of the sting from his predecessor's jump from Gingrich's campaign to that of former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty. Sonny Perdue had been a national co-chairman for the Gingrich campaign.

Pawlenty also picked up support Friday from Al Hubbard, who directed the National Economic Council under President George W. Bush.

Republicans hoped the campaign focus might shift toward policy and what they consider Obama's shortcomings on Monday, when seven candidates plan to debate in Manchester, N.H.

Joining Romney, Pawlenty, Gingrich and Bachmann will be Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, former pizza company executive Herman Cain, and former Sen. Rick Santorum, who unveiled a 60-second radio ad Friday criticizing the federal deficit.

Notably absent will be former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, who has been campaigning unofficially for several weeks, mostly in New Hampshire. Huntsman recently said he will join debates if he officially enters the race.

Meanwhile, he told reporters in New Hampshire, "we're here in people's homes, we're open to all of you, we're open to citizens that drop by and talk to us and ask whatever question they want."

Skipping the debate poses some risk for Huntsman, who recently stepped down as U.S. ambassador to China. He is virtually ignoring Iowa and needs to do well in New Hampshire if he runs, strategists say. But skipping the debate gives Huntsman more time to sharpen his responses to those who criticize his role in Obama's administration and portions of his record as governor.

In Iowa, party insiders were not surprised by Romney's decision to skip the well-known Ames straw poll. But it will have ramifications nonetheless.

Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, spent more than $1 million to win the straw poll four years ago. But he won neither the Iowa caucus nor the presidential nomination, and this time he is placing less emphasis on the Hawkeye state.

The straw poll "is an opportunity for underdogs," said veteran GOP strategist Charlie Black, and "a trap for front-runners."

Another party strategist, Virginia-based Mike McKenna, said the modest interest that Romney, Huntsman and Gingrich are showing in Iowa "is testament to the amount of juice that Michele Bachmann has there." Bachmann, a tea party favorite, appeals strongly to social conservatives who turn out heavily for the GOP caucus.

Long before Romney announced he was skipping the Iowa Republican Party straw poll, Pawlenty was planning a major investment in the event, which is a state GOP fundraiser. Pawlenty has hired Romney's 2007 straw poll coordinator and is reserving buses to ferry supporters to Iowa State University for the daylong event.

With Romney out of the Ames poll, and Gingrich not expected to participate, Pawlenty would have high expectations to win. But the payoff might be minimal without top-tier candidates to defeat, said Will Rogers, Gingrich's Iowa political director until he resigned last month.

"It's all on him to do well, but he doesn't have the opportunity to beat someone big," Rogers said.

Pawlenty spokesman Alex Conant said the presidential field "is still coming together," and it's "premature to start weighing expectations" for a summer straw poll.

___

Associated Press writers Tom Beaumont in Des Moines, Brian Bakst in St. Paul and Shannon McCaffrey in Atlanta contributed to this report.

View the original article here