Voters head to the polls Tuesday in Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia and Wisconsin, and while two marquee races have grabbed the spotlight – the Republican Senate primary in Indiana and the Democratic primary in Wisconsin for the recall race for governor – several down-ticket contests may shape the House next year.
The big show remains in Indiana, where Senator Richard G. Lugar is fighting for his political life against the state treasurer, Richard E. Mourdock, who has surged to a strong lead in recent polls by vowing to ditch Mr. Lugar’s penchant for compromise and to stand on conservative principles. Democrats believe a Mourdock victory will put the seat in play for their candidate, Representative Joe Donnelly. Republicans scoff.
“It’s a Republican state. I feel confident about holding the seat,” said Senator John Cornyn, Republican of Texas and chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
Democratic voters in Wisconsin appeared ready to pick Tom Barrett, the former mayor of Milwaukee, for a rematch against the state’s embattled Republican governor, Scott Walker. Mr. Walker beat Mr. Barrett in 2010, 52 percent to 47 percent. The recall election is scheduled for June 5.
For Republicans, Indiana and North Carolina present a target-rich environment, thanks to party-led redistricting – and that has created crowded Republican primaries.
In Indiana, Representative Larry Bucshon faces a Republican primary rematch against the opponent he squeaked by in 2010, Kristi Risk. Aside from the Lugar showdown, it is expected to be the only real chance that an incumbent could lose on Tuesday.
In North Carolina’s Eighth District, redistricting has made it even more difficult for the Democrat incumbent, Larry Kissell, and Republicans smell blood. The perceived front-runner for the party’s nomination, Richard Hudson, a former Congressional aide, briefly caused a stir when he proposed that the chief justice of the Supreme Court be required to certify the citizenship of presidential candidates, asserting “there’s no question President Obama’s hiding something on citizenship.” But Mr. Hudson is backed by Representative Eric Cantor of Virginia, the House majority leader. One of his opponents, Scott Keadle, a dentist, has the backing of the conservative political action committee Club for Growth.
The crowded field of Republicans hoping to succeed Representative Heath Shuler, a Democrat who is retiring, could be narrowed to a runoff, but the businessman Mark Meadows is the party’s front-runner. Representative Brad Miller, a Democrat who is also retiring, is likely to be succeeded by George Holding, a former United States attorney and the favorite in Tuesday’s Republican primary.
Representative Mike McIntyre, a Democrat, will try to win re-election in a new district that no longer includes his home and gave 58 percent of its vote to Senator John McCain in 2008. Mr. McIntyre survived the Republican tidal wave of 2010, beating Ilario Pantano, an Iraq war veteran. Mr. Pantano is seeking a rematch in a better district, but Washington Republicans would prefer to give State Senator David Rouzer a chance.
