Primary Preview: Recall, Redistricting and Confident Republicans

Voters head to the polls Tuesday in Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia and Wisconsin, and while two marquee races have grabbed the spotlight – the Republican Senate primary in Indiana and the Democratic primary in Wisconsin for the recall race for governor – several down-ticket contests may shape the House next year.

The big show remains in Indiana, where Senator Richard G. Lugar is fighting for his political life against the state treasurer, Richard E. Mourdock, who has surged to a strong lead in recent polls by vowing to ditch Mr. Lugar’s penchant for compromise and to stand on conservative principles. Democrats believe a Mourdock victory will put the seat in play for their candidate, Representative Joe Donnelly. Republicans scoff.

“It’s a Republican state. I feel confident about holding the seat,” said Senator John Cornyn, Republican of Texas and chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

Democratic voters in Wisconsin appeared ready to pick Tom Barrett, the former mayor of Milwaukee, for a rematch against the state’s embattled Republican governor, Scott Walker. Mr. Walker beat Mr. Barrett in 2010, 52 percent to 47 percent. The recall election is scheduled for June 5.

For Republicans, Indiana and North Carolina present a target-rich environment, thanks to party-led redistricting – and that has created crowded Republican primaries.

In Indiana, Representative Larry Bucshon faces a Republican primary rematch against the opponent he squeaked by in 2010, Kristi Risk. Aside from the Lugar showdown, it is expected to be the only real chance that an incumbent could lose on Tuesday.

In North Carolina’s Eighth District, redistricting has made it even more difficult for the Democrat incumbent, Larry Kissell, and Republicans smell blood. The perceived front-runner for the party’s nomination, Richard Hudson, a former Congressional aide, briefly caused a stir when he proposed that the chief justice of the Supreme Court be required to certify the citizenship of presidential candidates, asserting “there’s no question President Obama’s hiding something on citizenship.” But Mr. Hudson is backed by Representative Eric Cantor of Virginia, the House majority leader. One of his opponents, Scott Keadle, a dentist, has the backing of the conservative political action committee Club for Growth.

The crowded field of Republicans hoping to succeed Representative Heath Shuler, a Democrat who is retiring, could be narrowed to a runoff, but the businessman Mark Meadows is the party’s front-runner. Representative Brad Miller, a Democrat who is also retiring, is likely to be succeeded by George Holding, a former United States attorney and the favorite in Tuesday’s Republican primary.

Representative Mike McIntyre, a Democrat, will try to win re-election in a new district that no longer includes his home and gave 58 percent of its vote to Senator John McCain in 2008. Mr. McIntyre survived the Republican tidal wave of 2010, beating Ilario Pantano, an Iraq war veteran. Mr. Pantano is seeking a rematch in a better district, but Washington Republicans would prefer to give State Senator David Rouzer a chance.

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Republican Kansas Caucus Preview

Kansas is the first state to head to the polls after Super Tuesday. With all four candidates vowing to continue, the results in the Sunflower State loom larger. Here's a rundown of how the process works in Kansas and what's at stake on Saturday, March 10:

* Kansas sends 40 delegates to the Republican National Convention, putting it on par with Massachusetts and Oklahoma, which voted on Super Tuesday. Mississippi, a critical test coming up next week, has the same number of delegates.

* Kansas has four congressional districts. Each district has three delegates. The districts are winner-take-all; the candidate with the highest total wins them all. In the event of a tie (in vote count, not statistically), each candidate receives one delegate, and the third goes to the convention uncommitted.

* The 25 remaining at-large delegates are assigned proportionally based on the statewide vote. Candidates that pass the 20 percent threshold are allocated delegates. If only one candidate passes the threshold, or no candidate does, then the threshold no longer applies to any candidate.

* The three party leaders (State Republican Party chair, National Committeeman and Committeewoman) are bound at the convention to vote for the candidate with the highest statewide vote.

* The Kansas caucus is a closed caucus. Only voters that are registered members of the Republican Party are allowed to participate in the GOP caucus. According to Kansas GOP rules, voters had to be registered as members of the party prior to February 17. Voters cannot show up on Caucus Day, switch registrations and participate.

* Caucusing begins at 10 a.m. Central Time. A complete list of caucus locations is available on the state party website.

* Each candidate on the ballot may have one representative speak for no more than ten minutes on issues of interest to Kansas voters. Voters have at least one hour after the conclusion of the presentations to submit their ballot. Results must be reported to the state headquarters by 5pm. This allows time for participants to continue to talk, deliberate and persuade other caucus-goers to vote for their candidate.

* All eight candidates who initially ran for the Republican nomination will appear on the ballot. Only four (Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich) are still actively running.

* No absentee ballots are available or allowed.

* At least one candidate seems to have written Kansas off. Newt Gingrich's campaign announced the candidate was no longer planning to appear in the state, as previously expected. As reported by the Topeka Capital Journal, Gingrich has been scheduled to visit the state party headquarters on Friday.

* Rep. Ron Paul sees Kansas as critical to his campaign. According to WIBW, the candidate will be in Kansas all day Friday, with plans to attend a rally in Topeka, and he may visit a caucus site on Saturday.

* Despite the number of delegates at stake in the caucuses, no polls of Kansas voters' preferences are available as of this writing.

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