Who's Going to Drop Out of the 2012 Race First? (The Atlantic Wire)

Here's an immutable truth of the Republican primary: of the many, many contenders for the presidential nomination, all but one will lose. That means that eventually -- this week, this month, this year -- the herd will thin. Who'll be the first to go? The New York Times's  Jeff Zeleny gets the magic 8-ball rolling this morning with a look at former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty's struggling campaign under the headline: "Will Republican Race’s First In Be the First Out?"

Related: A Guide to Properly Insulting the 2012 GOP Candidates

Pawlenty has been running for president for two years, focusing intensely on Iowa, but he's still polling at just 6 percent in the state. If he doesn't do well in the Iowa Straw poll, a little more than a month away, his campaign is probably finished. Pawlenty told the Des Moines Register's editors that he's behind in the polls because "this week is the first time that I've campaigned in earnest in Iowa," Jennifer Jacobs writes--but Pawlenty has been in the state more times than any of his rivals save Rick Santorum.

Related: GOP Debate Preview: Hey, We're Not So Bad

Pawlenty may stick it out for a little bit longer, but there are plenty of contenders for the first to concede that they won't be going to the White House in 2013. 

Newt Gingrich has had a rough campaign so far too--his staff quit, his Tiffany's habit was revealed, he criticized an unpopular Medicare overhaul plan, his campaign is a million dollars in debt--and Slate's Dave Weigel wonders if he's just waiting till the right moment to pull out of the campaign with dignity. Iowa Politic's Lynn Campbell reports that even groups who've invited Gingrich to speak aren't being nice to him: the Christian group The Family Leader issued a statement four days before his lecture saying,

"Our exceptional and free society simply cannot endure without … nurturing nuclear families comprised of sexually faithful husbands and wives... We acknowledge and regret the widespread hypocrisy of many who say they defend marriage, yet turn a blind eye toward the epidemic of infidelity and the anemic condition of marriages in their own communities."

Gingrich is on his third marriage.

Related: First GOP Debate with Recognizable Candidates Will Be on June 13

Related: The Many Flops of the 2012 Race So Far

Rick Santorum hasn't won an election in 11 years when he was Senator from Pennsylvania. And despite going to Iowa even more than Tim Pawlenty, he's polling at 4 percent in the state. A telling headline from CBS News' Lucy Madison is this: "Rick Santorum: Back of the pack not a bad place to be." Referring to a poll showing a large majority of Republican voters unhappy with any of the 2012 candidates, Santorum explained that it was actually a good thing: "As someone who's sitting at the back of the pack, and probably has the lowest name recognition; they're probably not talking about me... That's a good thing as far as I'm concerned. I think that's an opportunity." So he's probably unlikely to drop out any time soon--thanks to the power of denial.

Jon Huntsman joined the race just two weeks ago, but his campaign announcement earned him zero bounce in the polls. Some assume the pro-gay rights, environmentally-friendly Republican is just planting the seeds for a 2016 run.

Related: Translating the Wall Street Journal's Story on Rick Perry

Herman Cain still polls well, but he's not very good at talking about the things you have to talk about when you run for president. He's flubbed answers on Palestinians' "right of return," said he'd only sign bills three pages long or less, and couldn't explain whether he'd hire Muslims at a primary debate. And his staff quit. But he's rich and he seems to enjoy all the attention. So he'll probably stick it out for the long haul.

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GOP Blinks First in Budget Stare Down (ContributorNetwork)

Two weeks ago, federal budget talks stalled as Republicans walked out of a meeting with Vice President Joe Biden. Speaker of the House John Boehner (R-Ohio) flatly stated "tax hikes are off the table" when it came to budget talks.

The GOP blinked first after President Obama and his aides stared down Republicans in a contest to see who gives in first.

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) stated July 6 that a tax hike on one part of the economy would have to be offset by tax cuts somewhere else. It's still a promising sign that debt talks can move forward before an August 2, 2011, deadline to raise the debt ceiling of the United States or face more economic problems.

Without raising the debt ceiling, the United States defaults on its loans and obligations. If that happens, the credit rating of the United States government falls, it would cost too much money to borrow more debt and countries wouldn't want to buy U.S. bonds any more.

The United States economy would be crippled by a debt default. Unfortunately, lawmakers are in a bind much like they were when the recession started in 2008. If they do nothing, it's far worse than taking a short-term hit.

The United States still has to come up with money to pay for things somehow. Whether through spending cuts, increasing taxes or both, raising the debt ceiling only postpones the problem. Massive budget deficits must be made up somehow.

Although solving the budget crisis still has a lot of work to do, the GOP caved in first. They don't want to erase any gains they made in the 2010 election. The status quo of compromise between the two parties will have to be good enough for both of them. The Democrats will have to give a little and make deeper cuts than they want to. The Republicans will simply have to raise taxes on something.

Even Obama's private-sector experts he assembled to deal with the budget difficulty said what is needed is a combination of more taxes and less spending. As with the late-term deals cut in December of 2010, These budget discussions won't be any different. Obama caved in to Republican demands to keep tax cuts for the rich . The Republicans, in turn, kept unemployment benefits for people who don't have work thanks to the recession that occurred on the GOP's watch.

What needs to happen is a tax increase that will affect everyone, rich and poor alike. Raising taxes on cigarettes, alcohol and gasoline only have minimal impacts on the individual consumer as prices would go up only a little bit. Over the long term and millions of purchases later, the tax increases add up.

It's only fair that if both sides compromise and everyone has to share a burden in the budget crisis that all Americans should pay more taxes on things we use.

William Browning is a research librarian specializing in U.S. politics. Born in St. Louis, Browning is active in local politics and served as a campaign volunteer for President Barack Obama and Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill .

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