Posted

Posted

IN finding the Affordable Care Act constitutional, a narrow majority on the
Although the court upheld the act,
The decision shifts the political terrain for both parties. Over the past four years, the
The ruling does not make President Obama’s tough re-election bid any easier. The
Not necessarily. Mr. Obama can now claim the mantle of “constitutionality” for his health care law — and start talking about the parts that are popular with 60 to 80 percent of Americans. Democrats, indeed all supporters of health reform, can tag Republicans with wanting to repeal or block those popular features like the insurance rules that protect people from being denied coverage for pre-existing conditions; the new benefits for young adults and older people on
For as long as political scientists have measured public opinion, we have known that Americans respond to abstract questions by opposing “big government” but evaluate particular government benefits and actions very differently. As long as opponents of health reform could ask “Is it constitutional?” the argument was on their terrain. Now the debate will swerve back toward the popular core of the act, if the White House and Congressional Democrats are savvy in how they talk about existing and future benefits. (Reform supporters can also truthfully point out that only 2 out of every 100 people will be affected by the mandate without enjoying subsidies to help them buy affordable coverage.)
Of course, it’s possible that the European economic crisis will send the world economy into another
Moreover, the Republicans would create a political mess for themselves if they tried to “defund Obamacare,” as many conservative lawmakers have vowed. Insurers would still have to issue policies to all comers, sick or healthy — but they would not get millions of new paid customers using credits and subsidies to buy their products. The states, including those with Republican governors, would be left with millions of citizens needing health care, but much reduced funding to help them. Many insurance companies and health care providers, not to mention health care reformers and Democrats, would fight to restore financing.
The same kind of dynamics would play out for states that choose to opt out of the Medicaid expansion in the act. (The Supreme Court ruled on Thursday that states may do so without losing all of their federal Medicaid financing.) The law provides for 90 percent federal subsidies for expanded Medicaid coverage, and states will find it hard to turn down this offer. As more and more states move toward universal coverage and well-functioning insurance exchanges, states that opt out will have trouble attracting businesses and health care professionals and lose out to other states in economic development.
In short, the historic court ruling ensures the law’s survival in the long run, even if partisan battles over particular regulations and expenditures continue for some time. The arc of history now bends toward health care for all — and greater efficiency in the system as a whole. Mr. Obama and the Democrats may have to talk about health care more than they had planned going into November. But in the months and years ahead, the political challenges for Mr. Romney and the Republicans are even greater.
Theda Skocpol, professor of government and sociology at Harvard, and Lawrence R. Jacobs, professor of political studies at the University of Minnesota, are the authors of “Health Care Reform and American Politics: What Everyone Needs to Know.”
The Undefeated Trailer (Dain Valverde/Vimeo.)
Here are the stories we took note of today but didn't give the full blog treatment:
• The trailer (above) for Sarah Palin's new documentary claims "like a marine, she runs toward the danger." (Political Ticker)
• Mitt Romney said he would fire White House advisor David Plouffe over Plouffe's unemployment comments. (Washington Wire)
• ...But some say his remarks seem worse because they were taken out of context. (The Plum Line)
• Coincidence? New Jersey state senate president Stephen Sweeney called Gov. Chris Christie a "rotten pr**k." This week, he was nearly struck by lightning. (Strictly Politics)
• Michele Bachmann laughed off that "sex appeal" comment. (The Campaign Spot)
• Texas political insiders say Gov. Rick Perry will enter the presidential race in the coming weeks. (Reuters)
• From June 26 to July 1, one-third of news links on blogs were about Bachmann. (Pew Research Center)
• Herman Cain is experiencing a big jump in national name recognition. (Politico)
• Wisconsin Republicans embraced the idea of running fake Democrats in the state's recall elections. (All Politics Blog)
• Rep. Paul Ryan appreciates really, really nice bottle of wine. (TPMDC)