Romney wins Michigan straw poll; second straight loss for Perry (Exclusive to Yahoo! News)

By Ron Fournier
National Journal

MACKINAC ISLAND, Mich. - In a rout, Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney trounced Rick Perry and the rest of the GOP field to win the National Journal Hotline/National Association of Home Builders Straw Poll of GOP activists attending a weekend conference in Michigan.

Romney received 51 percent of the 681 votes cast, a whopping 34-percentage point victory over second-place Perry, who garnered 17 percent. It was the second straight defeat for Perry in a straw poll, after he finished second in another contest Saturday in Florida. The twin disappointments, along with weak debate performances, have raised questions about whether the Texas governor will remain the perceived front-runner in the GOP nomination fight.

Romney grew up in suburban Detroit and in the Michigan governor's mansion; his father, George Romney, served as the state's chief executive from 1963 to 1969. Michigan is likely to hold its presidential nomination contest on Feb. 28, a week before Super Tuesday. It is also an important state in the general election contest.

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Both Romney and Perry addressed the conference Saturday, and while Perry took subtle digs at his GOP rival, Romney denounced President Obama's economic leadership. "I just don't think he's equipped for what's happening," the former Massachusetts governor said.

Third place in the Hotline straw poll went to former Godfather's Pizza CEO Herman Cain, who won the Florida poll Saturday. He received 9 percent of the votes among Michigan Republican activists.

Among the other vote-getters:

· Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, 8 percent

· Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, 4 percent.

· Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia, 4 percent.

· Former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, 3 percent

· Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, 2 percent.

The National Journal Hotline/National Association of Home Builders poll also found that Florida Sen. Marco Rubio was easily the activists' favorite to be their party's vice presidential nominee. Rubio received 23 percent of the 481 votes cast for vice president. Cain finished second with 14 percent followed by Gingrich at 13 percent and Bachmann at 12 percent.

(2011 NOTABLES: From Elizabeth Taylor to Kara Kennedy Allen to Gil Scott-Heron)

The straw poll was conducted Friday and Saturday at the biennial Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference. Nearly 700 people cast votes in a poll that was open to all voting-age conference attendees, most of whom were party activists and elected officials. The straw poll is not a scientific survey and it does not necessarily reflect the attitudes of Michigan primary voters at large.

Questions exploring the activists' ideological views suggest that while the delegation was overwhelmingly conservative, a strain of pragmatism drove their decision-making. For instance, half said they would be willing to support a candidate who would get the economy moving, even if that candidate supported abortion rights and same sex marriage.

While 80 percent said the tea party will help the GOP in the 2012 elections, 17 percent said they fear the movement could alienate independent voters. Two out of every 10 straw ballot voters hold a negative view of the tea party.

(CONGRESS: The most liberal members)

The delegates were split almost evenly on the question of whether they value the qualities of electability or ideological agreement most in a candidate, with ideology getting 51 percent of the vote.

Romney seized home field advantage in his remarks Saturday night. He charmed he crowd with inside references to Michigan ("I like people who, when you ask them where you're from, they hold up their hand") and an endearing moment with his wife, Ann. As the Romneys stood side by side during Mrs. Romney's brief remarks, members of the audience began tapping their wine glasses with silverware, a wedding tradition that calls for a kiss from the bride and groom.

Romney at first looked puzzled then said, "Oh!" - and gave his wife a quick kiss.

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Cain upsets Perry in Florida Republican straw poll (Reuters)

ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) – Former pizza executive Herman Cain surprised rival Rick Perry with an upset victory on Saturday in a Republican presidential straw poll in Florida, dealing a disappointing loss to the Texas governor two days after a shaky debate performance.

Perry, leading in the polls for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012, had needed a victory in what was an early test of strength to salve the wounds left over from a debate with his rivals on Thursday in which he struggled.

Instead, former Godfather's Pizza executive Cain, who is far behind the two top-tier candidates Perry and Mitt Romney, won with 37 percent of 2,657 votes cast.

Perry was a distant second at 15 percent, just ahead of Romney, who won 14 percent despite not participating in the poll. Further back were Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman and Michele Bachmann.

Florida's straw poll is a nonbinding popularity poll and is significant only in terms of showing a candidate's strength in the state. The state contests to determine the Republican nominee do not start until early next year.

The Perry camp shrugged off the results.

"Cain won, we still have work to do," said Perry spokesman Mark Miner. "It's his day. The conservative message won today. We've been in this race for five weeks. We're going to continue campaigning hard."

Miner put the focus on Romney's third-place finish, saying Perry's chief rival has been running for president for years and is still not breaking through.

"It's more of what happened to Mitt Romney. He's not going to be crowned president of the United States. He's going to have to work for it. And after five and a half years he once again got rejected in a key state in the Republican primary process," Miner said.

Perry created doubts among some conservatives at a debate with his Republican rivals on Thursday that he admitted on Friday was not his best performance. He was criticized by his rivals for a Texas policy that allows children of illegal immigrants to pay in-state tuition rates at Texas colleges.

"Perry doesn't stand for our constitutional values," said delegate Kris Anne Hall, who voted for Cain. "Perry doesn't stand up against illegal immigration."

Perry surrogate Michael Williams, in addressing the straw poll delegates on Saturday before the vote, sought to do some damage control for the Texas governor, who had addressed an Orlando breakfast earlier before campaigning in Michigan.

"We're not electing a debater-in-chief, we're electing a commander-in-chief," said Williams, adding that no illegal immigrant in Texas had received a handout for a free education.

Cain, an African-American who promotes himself as a pragmatic problem-solver with a clear tax reform plan, eagerly welcomed the victory.

"This is a sign of our growing momentum and my candidacy that cannot be ignored," Cain said after his win.

Most political analysts give him no chance of winning the nomination.

But Florida's Republican Party had noted that since 1979 every winner of the Florida straw poll has gone on to become the party's nominee. Senator John McCain won it in the 2008 cycle and defeated Romney to become the nominee.

Florida, the most populous of the presidential swing states, is a critical test for both Republicans and Democrats. The Florida vote was so close in the 2000 election that it led to a ballot recount battle between Democrat Al Gore and Republican George W. Bush, who was ruled the winner.

Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, and Bachmann chose not to compete in the straw poll but since they took part in the debate and spoke earlier to delegates at the convention in Orlando, the Florida Republican Party put their names on the ballot.

Perry issued a statement after the straw poll results were revealed that was clearly aimed at Romney.

"Floridians and voters nationally want a candidate who is clear on the issues and talks honestly about the future, not someone who takes multiple sides of an issue and changes views every election season. Today's vote demonstrates that Floridians are energized and ready to help get America working again," he said.

(Editing by Will Dunham)

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Herman Cain Wins the GOP Florida Straw Poll in a Huge Upset (ContributorNetwork)

COMMENTARY | Traditionally the winner of the Florida Republican straw poll has gone on to win the Republican nomination for president. One can imagine the consternation of political pundits when the winner of the 2011 Florida straw poll was Herman Cain.

Herman Cain, the former CEO of Godfather's Pizza, the only black in the race, had thus far occupied a curious spot in the Republican field. He was respected, his speeches were electrifying, his ideas intriguing. But like Steve Forbes in 1996, Cain, a man without prior political experience, was not thought to be capable of winning. One does not aspire to be president of the United States as an entry-level political job.

That may have changed Saturday. Cain won the Florida straw poll decisively, at 37 percent. Texas Gov. Rick Perry, up until now the presumed front runner, was in a distant second place with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney just behind.

How was it that Cain, whom many see as the most interesting man in the race, came to win? The Washington Examiner suggests it was the speech Cain made before the Florida delegates that sealed the deal for him. Partly it was the principle that one gets votes only when one asks for them. Partly is that Cain, with his deep, booming voice and his cadence of a natural born orator, moved the crowd as none of the other candidates could.

Partly, Cain was a beneficiary of Perry's abysmal performance at the Fox News/Google debate. Many of the delegates had been planning on voting for Perry. But the debate performance had sown the seeds of doubt among the Florida delegates. So a new conservative alternative to Romney had to be found. It must have been to the consternation of Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum, both former office holders, that the man they choose was a former corporate CEO with no previous political experience.

Another person who must be taken aback is actor Morgan Freeman, who opined the previous day that the tea party was racist in its opposition to President Obama. How can he reconcile that with Cain's victory?

Cain still has long odds. But he has won for himself new respect, with access to media and, perhaps, money. He has turned his campaign to "can't win" into "has a shot." If he can take advantage of the opportunity, he could make history next year.

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Herman Cain walks away with victory in Florida straw poll (Daily Caller)

ORLANDO, Fla. – Herman Cain won the Florida straw poll Saturday, rounding out three days of Republican Party and presidential campaign events. Cain won first place with 37.1 percent of the nearly 3,000 votes cast, more than double the second-place finisher’s tally.

Texas Governor Rick Perry, an early favorite, came in a devastating second, with about 15 percent of the vote, after raising expectations. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney came in third with 14 percent.

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum followed with 10.9 percent, then Texas Rep. Ron Paul with 10.4 percent, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with 8.4 percent, and former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman at 2.3 percent.

Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann rounded out the bottom with 1.51 percent.

Perry was the presumed winner during the days preceding the straw poll, but Cain swiftly gained ground, relentlessly covering the convention center with volunteers, supporters and campaign signs.

On Saturday, the Cain paraphenalia was only rivaled by that of Santorum’s campaign.

Romney’s third-place finish came largely as a surprise. His name was still on the ballot although he did not actively compete in the straw poll or send a surrogate to stump in the hours preceding the vote.

Perry had a disappointing showing at Thursday night’s Fox News debate, and he took heat for his stance on immigration and for his inability to drive home his challenges to Romney.

Teresa Valdez, a delegate from Port Orange who voted for Santorum, told The Daily Caller she couldn’t support Perry because of his weakness on immigration.

Even Perry supporters admitted their candidate underperformed at the debate. Perry volunteer Vicki Maddox of Tampa is one of them, although she defended his economic record when talking to TheDC.

But at a breakfast event in Orlando Saturday morning, Perry took a subtle jab at Romney and the other candidates who did not campaign for the straw poll.

“I think that’s a big mistake,” he said. “I think the Florida straw poll is very important.”

Still, Perry only narrowly edged out a second-place finish over Romney, who said early on that his campaign would not be participating in straw polls.

Rep. Bachmann’s last-place finish was a blow to a flailing campaign. But in August, she too, confused Florida Republicans by announcing she wouldn’t actively campaign in the straw poll.

At the time, Florida Republican Party communications director Brian Hughes told The Daily Caller it was a “bad move.”

“The path to the White House goes through Florida,” Hughes said.

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Ron Paul wins 2012 Republican straw poll in New Orleans (Reuters)

NEW ORLEANS (Reuters) – Representative Ron Paul easily won a Republican Leadership Conference straw poll of the party's 2012 presidential contenders on Saturday, with former U.S. envoy to China Jon Huntsman finishing second.

Paul, who brought busloads of supporters to the conference, won with 612 votes in the nonbinding preference poll of nearly 2,000 delegates from 38 states who attended the gathering.

Huntsman finished second with 382 votes, Representative Michele Bachmann was third with 191 votes and businessman Herman Cain was fourth with 104 votes.

Huntsman, a former Utah governor, is set announce his bid for the White House on Tuesday.

No other candidate broke triple digits. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who leads national opinion polls in the 2012 Republican race for the nomination to challenge President Barack Obama, was fifth with 74 votes.

"This win is just the latest indicator of how the majority of American opinion is turning in Ron Paul's direction," said Jesse Benton, his campaign chairman.

Paul, Bachmann and Cain addressed the New Orleans conference on Friday. Huntsman was scheduled to speak but canceled because of illness. Romney and Tim Pawlenty, the former Minnesota governor who earned 18 votes, skipped the event.

Former House of Representatives Speaker Newt Gingrich, who spoke on Thursday, had 69 votes. Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, who says she is considering becoming a candidate, had 41 votes. She also did not appear at the conference.

Former Senator Rick Santorum, who also spoke on Friday, had 30 votes.

Romney narrowly won the straw poll at the annual conference last year over Paul, but the survey has not been a reliable predictor of success. Bill Frist, who was Senate Republican leader at the time, won in 2006 and failed to ever get his campaign off the ground.

Texas Governor George W. Bush won in 1998, two years before he captured the White House.

(Editing by Xavier Briand)

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Ron Paul Wins Republican Straw Poll, but Rick Perry Inspires (ContributorNetwork)

The Republican Leadership Conference held a Republican presidential straw poll in New Orleans June 18 and Texas Rep. Ron Paul scored 40 percent of the vote. Jon Huntsman finished second and up and coming presidential contender Michelle Bachmann took third. Another popular candidate, who is also not popular with the Republican Party hierarchy, Herman Cain, finished fourth.

The results of the straw poll, posted on the Republican Leadership Conference website, showed little interest in Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich. Romney garnered 74 votes to Paul's 612, after not showing up for the conference and Gingrich gathered only 69 votes after he appeared in New Orleans .

Reading the results, it shows many Republicans are not happy with their choices and their straw poll vote was a message to the other contenders in the race. Republicans are looking for candidates who will make it a clear choice for voters heading to the poll. Ironically Romney won this straw poll last year.

Huntsman is receiving his first attention via this conference but did not attend and now he is already in the sights of the Los Angeles Times. The Times ran a story June 18, "Was Jon Huntsman campaigning while he was an ambassador?"

The story states, "Huntsman accepted invitations to deliver commencement addresses in the pivotal nominating states of New Hampshire and South Carolina. In New Hampshire, two political operatives who are now playing key roles in his soon-to-be-announced presidential bid helped arrange his visit."

Sarah Palin also suffered a setback in the straw poll, scoring only 41 votes. Sarah Palin did not attend the conference but her showing of only 41 votes is a sign she is not as popular in Republican circles as many thought. Palin's numbers also suffered because of a strong appearance by Michelle Bachmann .

Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who is not a candidate, gave the speech that received the most attention. Perry energized the crowd with a rousing, take no prisoners, speech that left no wiggle room. Perry said, "It saddens me when sometimes my fellow Republicans duck and cover in the face of pressure from the left. Our party cannot be all things to all people."

Perry refers to a theme at the convention calling for Republicans to bend on social issues to create a party considered mainstream. Perry's unwillingness to bend may have been popular but it will cause the Republicans to lose the White House in 2012.

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Paul wins straw poll, Huntsman ranks second (AP)

NEW ORLEANS – Rep. Ron Paul of Texas has won the presidential straw poll at the Republican Leadership Conference.

The perennial libertarian candidate won 612 votes from the gathering that brings presidential candidates, party elders, grassroots activists and donors. Coming in second place was former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, who served three Republican administrations and then worked as President Barack Obama's ambassador to China.

Huntsman got 382 votes, but did not address the conference. Aides said he was ill.

His wife, Mary Kaye Huntsman, came to meet privately with activists.

Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, a tea party darling, collected 191 votes. Former pizza executive Herman Cain won 104 votes and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney skipped the event and picked up 74 votes. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich got 69 votes.

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Romney to skip Iowa GOP, Florida straw polls (AP)

DES MOINES, Iowa – Presidential candidate Mitt Romney does not plan to compete in the Iowa Republican straw poll in August, an event he spent more than $1 million to win four years ago but that would divert time and money from a 2012 campaign designed to present him as a national candidate, aides confirmed to The Associated Press on Thursday.

The decision is a measure of how different a Romney 2012 campaign would be from 2008. It is also further evidence that the non-binding contests, of which Iowa's is the best-known and highest profile, are seen as optional for better-known candidates.

"It's a gamble that you put a lot of resources behind and it's not a predictor of who wins the caucuses. Sometimes it is. Sometimes it's not," said Charlie Black, a 30-year Republican presidential campaign strategist who advised John McCain's 2008 effort. "It's an opportunity for underdogs. It's a trap for front-runners."

Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, also is not planning to compete in any other of the many nonbinding straw polls in early nominating states, including Michigan or Florida. The deadline to register delegates for the Florida straw poll in September is Friday.

"We respect the straw poll process. In the last presidential campaign we were both strengthened as an organization and learned some important lessons by participating in them," Romney campaign spokesman Matt Rhoades said in a written statement provided to the AP. "This time we will focus our energies and resources on winning primaries and caucuses."

Romney has said he will campaign in Iowa, where he finished second in the 2008 caucuses. He visited Iowa last month, reconnecting with elements of the statewide network he built over the course of a year and with roughly $10 million in 2007. Romney aides also confirmed Thursday that he will participate in the Fox News Channel debate in Iowa scheduled two days before the Aug. 13 straw poll in Ames.

But deciding not to spend money on straw polls, an effort in Iowa that cost his campaign $1.5 million in 2007, is in line with what advisers have said will be a more disciplined Romney campaign, focused on winning the nomination with an economic message and allocating campaign dollars for the long haul.

"The campaign is making a smart decision to not compete in the upcoming series of straw polls," Brian Kennedy, Romney's Iowa steering committee chairman and a former state GOP chairman, said in a statement. "Mitt's focus is on winning the nomination, not the straw polls."

Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, a national GOP poll leader in early 2007, opted not to compete in the Iowa straw poll after reconsidering his stake in the caucuses, where his moderate social positions clashed with the state's evangelical, conservative base. McCain, who also led in early 2007 GOP national polls, opted out as well, although the decision involved the Arizona senator's shaky campaign finances.

Romney's decision could raise expectations for former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who has arrayed a robust and seasoned Iowa campaign staff, including Romney's 2007 straw poll planner. Pawlenty must win or do very well in the caucuses to have a chance at the nomination. Pawlenty's campaign affirmed his plan to compete in the Iowa straw poll after Romney's decision was announced.

"There are many, many presidential candidates that need to demonstrate organizational strength and support in Iowa, and the straw poll will be the place to do it," Iowa Republican Party Chairman Matt Strawn said.

Iowa's straw poll is the best-known of the many non-binding popularity contests held in early-nominating states. Iowa's has grown in 30 years from a small event of about 1,400 to a pre-caucus summer festival that draws thousands of participants and a contingent of national media to Iowa State University's Hilton Coliseum.

Straw polls can create buzz for little-known candidates, fuel fundraising efforts and stir up activists in early-voting states, including in South Carolina, which is known for a series of county-level GOP straw polls.

Critics say the events are stacked toward well-funded campaigns that can afford to buy blocs of tickets and ferry their supporters to the events.

Iowa Republican Party officials have pushed back against criticisms that its event is a money grab by the Iowa Republican Party. Candidates bid thousands of dollars for plots on the coliseum grounds to erect tents to feed and entertain supporters. The 2007 straw poll cost the state GOP roughly $600,000. Party officials also have lowered the ticket price by $5 to $30 since 2007.

"The notion that the straw poll is seven-figure windfall to the Republican Party of Iowa is simply not accurate. We hope to generate income and have money left over and organize for 2012," Strawn said.

Iowa's has had the effect of stamping front-runners and drive up expectations, as they did for George W. Bush with his victory at Ames in August 1999; likewise with Romney after his all-out effort in 2007.

But Iowa's straw poll also can hobble a candidate who does not meet expectations, as it did for then-Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback and former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson in 2007. And only twice in the four Iowa straw polls since the meager 1979 turnout has the eventual caucus winner won.

Mike DuHaime, who managed Giuliani's campaign, said other candidates need more than Romney does the lift a straw poll victory can create.

"It can help create the perception of a serious, national candidate. Most people already believe that about Gov. Romney," said DuHaime. "Why go out and spend a lot of money for something that doesn't carry with it something tangible?"

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Romney skipping Iowa straw poll (Daily Caller)

Mitt Romney announced Thursday night that he will not participate in the Ames Straw Poll, or in any other straw polls, “whether it’s in Florida, Iowa, Michigan or someplace else.”

“We respect the straw poll process,” said Matt Rhoades, Romney’s campaign manager.  “In the last presidential campaign we were both strengthened as an organization and learned some important lessons by participating in them.  This time we will focus our energies and resources on winning primaries and caucuses.”

Romney in 2007 won the Ames straw poll in Iowa, a traditional event that conveys strength and support in the country’s first caucus of the presidential season.

Romney’s campaign released statements from politicos in Florida, Iowa and Michigan in support of his decision.

(Gingrich’s former national campaign co-chair goes to Pawlenty)

“The campaign’s decision to not participate in any straw polls is a strategic decision on their part.  Straw polls are an expensive proposition and they have decided to focus their resources on primary day,” said Michigan GOP National Committeeman Saul Anuzis.

But Republican Party of Florida Executive Director Andy Palmer called it “unfortunate” Romney decided to bypass the state’s straw poll.

“With thousands of activists signed up to attend, the event would have been the perfect opportunity to communicate his message directly to Republican voters in the most important swing state in the nation,” he said. “However, we look forward to hosting a great event for the rest of the Republican candidates this September in Orlando.”

(DNC release another video attacking Romney on bailout position)

One campaign responded to the news by trying to use it to his advantage.

“The Ames straw poll is a great gathering of conservatives, and Governor Pawlenty’s solid record will be well received there,” said Iowa Steering Committee Chairman Matt Whitaker. “I look forward to joining thousands of Iowans in casting my vote for Governor Pawlenty in Ames this summer and in the caucuses this winter.”

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