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Showing posts with label Timecom. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Timecom. Show all posts

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

What You Missed While Not Watching the Last South Carolina GOP Debate (Time.com)

0 minutes. The CNN spaceship is set to launch, with blue gels on the lights that give the auditorium an alien aquarium vibe. It's the 17th GOP debate of 2012 cycle. Roll the intro montage: "Welcome to the South, the heart of the Republican Party," says the hokey disembodied voice, doing his best imitation of a Stephen Colbert send up, "where tradition lives and values matter." What? Do Iowa and New Hampshire not care about tradition and values? Nonsense. But we push on. We are veterans. We have learned to let the silly slide.

2 minutes. Each candidate gets a shout out. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is "the frontrunner." Texas Rep. Ron Paul is "the insurgent." Rick Santorum has "renewed momentum," though recent polls show it is in the wrong direction. Newt Gingrich is "on the rise." Then each of the men take the stage with their variation of a high school dweeb strut. Romney is third, and the most talkative. "Hi guys," he says to the others. "Newt," he says shaking Gingrich's hand. "Ha ha," he says, because perhaps it is funny to be shaking Gingrich's hand. "And then there were four," he adds, because that is all that remain. (See "What You Missed While Not Watching the Final Iowa Debate.")

5 minutes. CNN pomp is unending, as usual. After Twitter and Facebook mentions, some military cadets sing the national anthem. The crowd turns to a flat-screen projection of Old Glory. "That was fabulous. Absolutely fabulous," CNN host John King says afterward. One day the debate will start. Then he asks the candidates to make short opening statements. For those who speak Republican, this means brag about your brood.

7 minutes. Santorum begins, noting his "wife Karen and our seven children." He also thanks Iowa "for a little delayed but most welcome victory there." Romney beats Santorum, not in Iowa, but in brood count. "I'm married now 42 years. I have five sons, five daughters-in-law, 16 grandkids, and they're the joy of my life." The married-a-long-time thing is a knock on thrice-married Gingrich, though Romney would probably swear to his grave that this is not true. Gingrich eschews brood stats for geographic pandering. "As a Georgian, it feels good to be back at home in the South," he says. Paul mentions that he has been elected to Congress 12 times, 30 years as an obstetrician, and "I'm the only U.S. veteran on this stage tonight." (See "What You Missed While Not Watching the GOP National-Security Debate.")

9 minutes. Finally a question, and it's a doozy. Would Gingrich like to respond to his second wife's claim that he wanted an open marriage more than a decade ago? "No, but I will," he says, looking ornery. The crowd likes his attitude. "I am appalled that you would begin a presidential debate on a topic like that." The crowd is on its feet applauding. "To take an ex-wife and make it two days before the primary a significant question for a presidential campaign is as close to despicable as anything I can imagine." The place is going nuts. Gingrich goes on for a while. Then he adds, as if it no longer matters, "The story is false."

11 minutes. Gingrich is still going. "I am tired of the elite media protecting Barack Obama by attacking Republicans." A second standing ovation. If being President only required an ability to rile the public into rage against the press, America wouldn't need an election. There would be a coronation.

12 minutes. King asks Santorum if this open marriage/mistress stuff is an issue. Santorum says yes, as softly as he can. "These are issues of our lives and what we did in our lives," he says. "They are issues of character for people to consider."

13 minutes. Romney won't go there. "John, let's get on to the real issues is all I've got to say." The crowd likes that too.

14 minutes. Paul uses his turn at the Gingrich mistress plate to say media corporations are bad. "What about the corporations that run the media?" he asks, before joining in the media's attack by adding apropos of nothing in particular that he has been married 54 years.

15 minutes. New topic. Unemployment. Name three things you would do to help reduce it. Paul says "sound currency," less regulations and near-zero income taxes. Gingrich says repeal Dodd-Frank, increase domestic oil and gas exploration, and radically overhaul the Corps of Engineers.

18 minutes. King follows up by asking Gingrich to attack Romney for his work at Bain Capital. Gingrich indulges, describing "Bain Capital's model, which was to take over a company and dramatically leverage it, leave it with a great deal of debt, made it less likely to survive."

19 minutes. Romney is asked to respond, and attacks Obama. "You've got to stop the spread of crony capitalism. He gives General Motors to the UAW. He takes $500 million and sticks it into Solyndra. He -- he stacks the labor stooges on the NLRB so they can say no to Boeing and take care of their friends in the labor movement," he says. The crowd rewards the Obama bashing with applause.

20 minutes. King persists on Bain, asking Romney to explain how he comes up with the figure of 120,000 jobs created at the firm. Romney says that is what four companies he started now employ. "I'm someone who believes in free enterprise," he continues. "I think Adam Smith was right. And I'm going to stand and defend capitalism across this country, throughout this campaign." Then he turns it up a notch. "I know we're going to get hit hard from President Obama, but we're going to stuff it down his throat and point out it is capitalism and freedom that makes America strong." The foie gras attack.

22 minutes. Santorum distinguishes between regular capitalism and the "high finance" of Romney. "We need a party that just doesn't talk about high finance and cutting corporate taxes or cutting the top tax rates," Santorum says. "We need to talk about how we're going to put men and women in this country, who built this country, back to work in this country in the manufacturing sector of our economy." He's the Joe Biden of the GOP. Pure Scranton.

24 minutes. Talk about the challenges faced by returning military veterans. Everyone on stage is concerned. Paul says he worries about the high rate of suicide. Santorum says there should be job preferences. Romney says he wants the states to do much of the work. Gingrich says cut taxes and help veterans with a program like the G.I. Bill after World War II.

31 minutes. Question on ObamaCare. Romney says repeal it and replace it with something "like a market, a consumer market, as opposed to have it run like Amtrak and the post office." This is not an accurate description of how ObamaCare works, but let it slide. Move on. Gingrich says he'd "repeal all of it because I so deeply distrust the congressional staffs that I would not want them to be able to pick and choose which things they cut." By this logic, congressional staff would never get to do any legislating. But let it slide. Move on. (See "What You Missed While Not Watching the CNBC 'Oops' Republican Debate.")

35 minutes. Santorum uses this opportunity to attack both Romney and Gingrich for once supporting the individual mandate in ObamaCare. He calls Romney's health reforms in Massachusetts "an abject disaster." Romney objects. "First of all, the system in my state is not a government-run system," he says. This is true, but it is kind of funny to hear Romney say it, since he just mischaracterized ObamaCare as a "government-run system." Let it slide. Move on.

39 minutes. They go back and forth for a while, covering old ground. At one point, Romney does another "Ha ha," to express condescension at the attacks on him. When it comes around to Gingrich, he changes the subject by saying, again, that he wants 3-hour debates with Obama. "I will let him use a teleprompter. I would just rely on knowledge. We'll do fine." A real crowd-pleaser that Gingrich.

42 minutes. After more needling from Santorum, Gingrich admits he was wrong about the individual mandate.

43 minutes. Paul finally gets a chance to talk again. He says government should not be involved in medicine. Then he pivots to a discussion about why U.S. military bases overseas are bad, as are recent military adventures.

45 minutes. That brings us to the first break. Before cutting to commercial, King says Gingrich has released his tax returns while the candidates have been on stage. Nice trick. Can we expect gimics like this in future debates?

49 minutes. We're back. King promptly gets Gingrich and Santorum fighting again. "Grandiosity has never been a problem with Newt Gingrich," Santorum says. "I don't want a nominee that I have to worry about going out and looking at the paper the next day and worrying about what he's going to say next." That is a line taken almost word-for-word from the Romney campaign. Then Santorum says he finished ahead of Gingrich in New Hampshire, which is not true. Gingrich got 49 more votes. Nonetheless, Santorum accuses Gingrich of having "not cogent thoughts."

53 minutes. Gingrich responds by listing pretty much everything good that happened during his two decade run in the U.S. House. Then he says, "I think grandiose thoughts. This is a grandiose country of big people doing big things." Applause of course. More tit for tat follows. But no more fancy words like grandiose.

56 minutes. Romney tries to chime in by saying that this squabbling just shows he's the outsider who can fix Washington. But Romney does it really awkwardly, describing himself as someone "who's lived in the real streets of America." Not clear if he is referring to the old family mansion in Belmont, Mass., or the beach house in La Jolla, Calif., or the Deer Valley, Utah, lodge he once owned. Or maybe another "real street" he has yet to disclose. In the middle of the answer, Romney gets lost. Then he finds his way, and attacks Gingrich for not really having as much to do with Ronald Reagan as he claims. "You're mentioned once in Ronald Reagan's diary," Romney says.

58 minutes. Gingrich shoots back. "You did very well under the rules that we created to make it easier for entrepreneurs to go out and do things," he says to Romney. "I don't recall a single day saying, 'Oh, thank heavens Washington is there for me,'" Romney responds.

59 minutes. Question for Paul. Will he release his tax returns? "I'd probably be embarrassed to put my financial statement up against their income," he jokes of the others on the stage.

60 minutes. Romney cleans up his big mistake from the last debate, and says he will release his tax returns in April. Then, as he always does when uncomfortable, he attacks Obama. "You've got a President who's played 90 rounds of golf while there are 25 million Americans out of work," Romney says.

63 minutes. Santorum says he will release his returns as soon as he gets home and prints them off his computer.

64 minutes. King asks Romney if he will release 12 years of his tax returns, like his father George Romney did when he ran in 1968. Romney smiles at the mention of his father, but doesn't answer the question. "Maybe," he says, as the crowd starts to boo. "You know, I don't know how many years I'll release."

66 minutes. King asks a question premised on the fact that the best example of American corporate success at the moment, Apple Inc., has 500,000 employees in China and much fewer in the United States. This allows Santorum to get another Joe Biden riff going about revitalizing American manufacturing. Paul sees the question as an opportunity to deliver an economics lesson on the benefits of trade. Then Paul and Santorum bicker about Santorum's one-time aversion to a national right-to-work bill.

71 minutes. King asks a question about the recent bills in Congress that would put new restrictions on websites to protect intellectual property. He also discloses that CNN's parent company, Time Warner, which is also TIME's parent company, is a big supporter of these bills. The mention of the corporate monster responsible for The Hangover II and Harry Potter VII earns lots of boos from the crowd. "You're asking a conservative about the economic interests of Hollywood," Gingrich jokes. Bottom line, Romney, Gingrich and Paul are against the bills. Santorum is against the bills as well, but more eager to find some new rules to further protect intellectual property. "Where in America does it say that anything goes?" Santorum asks. There are some places, but Santorum has probably never been to them.

76 minutes. Break number two. Say what you want about the evils of Time Warner, but at least it allows CNN to go light on the commercial breaks.

78 minutes. We're back. No we're not. Another commercial break. Ignore the corporate backscratching at minute 76. Another movie made by Time Warner: Cats and Dogs -- The Revenge of Kitty Galore.

81 minutes. Back for real this time. The candidates are asked for one thing they would do over in the campaign. Gingrich says he would skip the first three months of the campaign when he "hired regular consultants and tried to figure how to be a normal candidate." Romney jokes that he would "get 25 more votes in Iowa." That's funny. Then Romney adds, "I guess I also would go back and take every moment I spent talking about one of the guys on the stage and spend that time talking about Barack Obama." This is disingenuous, but on message, and thus an apt summary of Romney's apparent strength and weakness. (As Romney says it, his campaign is blitzing reporters with more anti-Gingrich agitprop by e-mail.) Paul and Santorum can't think of anything they would do differently.

84 minutes. Immigration time. Same as before. Build a fence. Etc. Just look through previous "What You Missed" summaries to get the idea.

95 minutes. Abortion time. Gingrich attacks Romney for changing his mind on the issue. "Governor Romney has said that he had a experience in a lab and became pro-life, and I accept that," Gingrich says. Experience in a lab. Priceless. Then Gingrich says that Romney still appointed pro-choice judges, and still allowed for Planned Parenthood to benefit from his state health reforms. Santorum piles on, saying the country needs a pro-life crusader, not just a pro-life politician. It's like a tag team. At one point Gingrich even says, "I'll yield to Senator Santorum." Romney defends himself by pointing out that he had little choice, given the state he was in, and says he really is pro-life.

103 minutes. Paul finally gets a chance to speak again. He gets into a spat with Santorum about his own pro-life record. Paul calls abortion "a violent act" that should be handled by state, not federal, law; Santorum disagrees. At one point, Paul says to Santorum, "You are overly sensitive."

107 minutes. Final break.

111 minutes. We're back. King asks for closing arguments. Paul talks about liberty. Gingrich talks about certain doom if Obama is reelected, and suggests he is the only person who can defeat Obama. Romney lapses into his stump speech, quoting from the Declaration of Independence, and whatnot. Santorum argues that you need a conservative who will draw a sharp contrast with Obama. (See "What You Missed While Not Watching the Las Vegas GOP Debate.")

118 minutes. "That concludes our debate this evening," says King. And so it does. Four candidates still remain. No one knows how many more Republican debates are left. Should they go the way of that one pizza guy, they too won't be missed.

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Monday, January 23, 2012

Romney's $20 Million IRA: A Lousy Investment? (Time.com)

Mitt Romney may have made the classic IRA mistake: holding low-tax investments inside a tax-favored account. His IRA strategy isn't clear, of course. Romney continues to guard his personal finances. But details are trickling out, and even if it turns out that Romney's traditional IRA is built right for him, the securities he holds in it serve as a valuable reminder that not all investments belong in a tax-favored account.

Romney's IRA is valued at between $20.7 million and $101.6 million, according to The Wall Street Journal. That's an extremely wide range that the Journal found in Romney's latest financial disclosure report, filed in August. His IRA produced income between $1.5 million and $8.5 million last year.(MORE: Cash Back: Banks Battle for Your Rollover IRA.)

So he's not like most of us, financially speaking. But he is exactly like us in that he has limits on how much he can contribute to an IRA, or to a 401(k) plan that can be rolled into an IRA. Given those limits it's remarkable that he has been able to amass such wealth in a tax-deferred account.

For most of his years at Bain Capital, the annual IRA pre-tax contribution was capped at $2,000 and the annual 401(k) pre-tax contribution, including employer match, was capped at $30,000. Other limits are in force today: $5,000 for an IRA ($6,000 if you over 50); $16,500 for a 401(k) ($22,000 if you are over 50).

Assuming Romney was maxing out pre-tax contributions, as should anyone who can afford to do so, he still would have needed extraordinary returns within his tax-deferred accounts to build such a big balance. He must have been investing in stocks and other high-growth potential vehicles, which produce a capital gain.

Here's the rub: The max capital gains tax is just 15%. That's what Romney would pay in federal tax upon selling his stocks from a taxable account. Yet when Romney begins taking distributions from his IRA, as he must in his 71st year, the money will be subject to federal income tax at rates of up to 35%. That tax-rate disparity is why it often makes sense to hold stocks in a taxable account and things like real estate investment trusts, rental properties, bonds and other income-generating investments in an IRA or 401(k). This is especially true for the wealthy, like Romney, whose net worth is about $250 million. Rich people have ample resources to max out tax-deferred vehicles with bonds and hold their stocks in a taxable account -- all while maintaining a desired asset allocation of, say, 60% stocks and 40% bonds.(MORE: More Fees, Fewer Branches as Banks Cope With Lower Profits.)

This doesn't necessarily work with limited resources. If you only save in a 401(k) and must stretch to get the full company match, you're probably better off with a mix of stocks and bonds in that account. Stocks also make sense in a tax-deferred account with at least 20 years before distributions begin, according a study by T. Rowe Price. And holding stocks in your IRA won't hurt if your income tax rate will shrink when you begin to take distributions.

But, in general, it makes sense to add low-tax investments like stocks (even dividends get taxed at a max 15%) to a taxable account and income-generating investments to a tax-deferred account -- especially with fewer than 10 years to retirement. A presidential candidate probably knows that. But thanks, Mitt, for the reminder.

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Tuesday, January 10, 2012

New Hampshire Creates Big Expectations, if Little Drama, as GOP Race Wears On (Time.com)

In a final, frantic day of campaigning before Tuesday's New Hampshire primary, the six Republican presidential hopefuls sought to calibrate expectations for a race from which Mitt Romney's healthy lead has sapped much of the late drama.

Romney's New Hampshire lead has held firm, forcing his rivals to jockey for position with each other as the former Massachusetts governor coasts toward what is likely to be a comfortable victory. The race has tightened slightly in its closing week, but Romney boasts a double-digit lead in every poll, with 33% in Monday's daily Suffolk University tracking survey, a 13-point lead over Ron Paul, his nearest competitor. Rivals seized Monday on Romney's comment that he "likes being able to fire people" -- which, taken out of context, dovetails neatly into attacks on his record running Bain Capital -- but the barrage of criticism is almost certainly too late to jeopardize his edge in the Granite State. Romney doesn't need to win in a "landslide," as South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, a Romney surrogate, said this week. But an unexpected nail-biter could dampen the case for his inevitability. (Read "Romney Unscathed in Twin New Hampshire Debates.")

Behind Romney sits Ron Paul, who appears to have an inside track for second place. Jesse Benton, Paul's campaign chairman, told TIME that a "strong second" was the worst-case scenario for the Texas congressman, whose loyal band of followers fanned out across the state Monday to enumerate the merits of their candidate outside opponents' public events. Consecutive strong finishes would vault him into South Carolina and beyond. Paul will skip Florida, scrambling instead to rack up delegates in caucus states where his organizational power will be unmatched except by Romney.

With the top two slots crystallizing, the three-way battle for third place will likely be where the action is Tuesday. Rick Santorum, whose shoe-leather campaign spurred him to a virtual draw in Iowa, admitted Monday that he won't duplicate the feat in New Hampshire. "I'd be ecstatic with second place," Santorum told reporters outside a diner in Derry Monday afternoon, with a cocked eyebrow that suggested he knew it wouldn't happen.

"Governor Romney basically lives here and has spent, as all candidates hve, a lot of money on television. We didn't have it," Santorum said. "Look, Ron Paul has run here about 17 times. To do as well as him, I'm not sure that's possible, but if we do, it would be a huge win for us."

The admission was a stark reversal from the hopeful note Santorum and his staff struck in the aftermath of Iowa. Santorum boasted that he had assembled an underrated organization in New Hampshire over the course of more than 30 visits, and aides, including campaign manager Mike Biundo, a New Hampshire native, said the former Pennsylvania Senator's piety and economic populism would play well in a Northeastern state that is nearly 40% Catholic. (See top 10 political fashion statements.)

But after boosting expectations in New Hampshire, Santorum risks failing to meet them. His super PAC didn't run television ads to compete with the Romney and Paul spots inundating the airwaves. Instead he relied solely on the same retail formula that paid dividends in Iowa but was never likely to erase a massive deficit in New Hampshire. "Obviously there's a short run up" between Iowa and New Hampshire he said, by way of acknowledging the blueprint wouldn't pay off in time, particularly since questioners at his marathon town halls have zeroed in on Santorum's stance on social issues and muddled his larger message. The result has been an awkward straddle, which saw Santorum spend Sunday in the Palmetto State and left him soft-pedaling expectations for New Hampshire after an initial burst of enthusiasm.

Though advisers argue otherwise, Santorum may have been better served jetting straight to South Carolina, which will play a crucial role in determining which candidate -- if any -- can unite social conservatives and Tea Partyers to foil Romney. A top Santorum adviser says the decision to play hard in New Hampshire was partly a function of the campaign's strained finances: it made sense, says the aide, to capitalize on the momentum and free media afforded by the pack of national press descending on the Granite State, particularly since Santorum lacked the money to run television ads widely. The campaign also felt that any candidate vying to be the GOP's national standard-bearer had to prove their mettle on inhospitable terrain rather than cherry-picking his battles.

In the race for third, the only candidate finishing strong is Jon Huntsman, whose long tour of New Hampshire has yielded teeming crowds and an uptick in the polls during the primary's last days. Having tethered his hopes to a strong finish here, Huntsman has been coy about defining what constitutes success, allowing only that he must "beat market expectations" but refusing to define them. Nate Silver's latest projections Monday night gave Huntsman 16.5% of the vote, behind only Romney and Paul. That would almost certainly be enough to propel Huntsman forward in the race even if he's unlikely to repeat such success elsewhere barring an injection of cash from his billionaire father. (Read "In Final New Hampshire Push, Huntsman Embraces Underdog Role.")

Also in the mix is Newt Gingrich, who's conceded that he's unlikely to stymie Romney or spring an upset in New Hampshire and is looking ahead on the calendar. After finishing fourth in Iowa, a similar showing would be enough, Gingrich said, to carry him into the Jan. 21 primary in South Carolina, where a super PAC allied with his campaign has bought more than $3 million in ad time to bludgeon Romney. "We'll win South Carolina," Gingrich told ABC News on Monday. "That's my must-win state."

The same is true for the wounded Rick Perry, who skipped campaigning in New Hampshire to head straight for the Palmetto State, which he likened to his Alamo. Santorum also sees the South Carolina primary, which one of his advisers told TIME would be a "bloody" battle, as critical to his goal of emerging as the primary alternative to Romney. "We have to finish really well there," he said Monday. Particularly since his hopes for finishing really well in New Hampshire have faded.

With reporting by Katy Steinmetz

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What You Missed While Not Watching the Weekend's New Hampshire GOP Debates (Time.com)

-6 minutes. At St. Anselm College, ABC News asks former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman to come on stage first. Texas Gov. Rick Perry peeks from behind the curtain instead, followed by the others. Huntsman is last out. Typical. This is not a good sign. Reality shows end with the big double-episode season finales, so the GOP has scheduled back-to-back debates the weekend before the New Hampshire primary, with a 10-hour delay in the middle. There is a long way to go.

0 minutes. The opening montage sets the scene: "Can anybody overcome former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney?" says the voiceover. This is the question of the day. "Tonight we put them all to the test."

2 minutes. But the test is really easy. The first question for Romney: "We just saw 200,000 new jobs created last month, and there are optimists who say this is the signal that this economy is finally turning around. Are you with those optimists?" This is like asking a veterinarian if puppies are cute. "I'm an optimist," says Romney, before pivoting to his stump speech. Barack Obama is bad, etc.

4 minutes. Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum is prodded to repeat his claim that the country does not need a manager or CEO like Romney as President. Santorum does, saying he is better because he "managed major pieces of legislation through the House and through the Senate." Catch that? Santorum is a manager too, for just about the only institution less popular than corporations: Congress. Woo. Yipee. (See "What You Missed While Not Watching the Final Iowa Debate.")

5 minutes. Romney's tie is covered with a pattern of fish hooks. Not clear why. But he doesn't let Santorum snag him. Romney's response has the words "lead" or "leadership" seven times.

7 minutes. Former Speaker Newt Gingrich gets a turn to hook a Romney catch. He is asked about a video being hocked by a super PAC supporting him that calls Romney's business record "a story of greed." Gingrich won't attack. He says people should watch the video and read recent coverage critical of Romney in the New York Times. "If it's factually accurate, it raises questions." For the first time in 14 debates, Gingrich is not pretending to know more than everyone else. Suspicious.

8 minutes. Romney says that "net-net" his work at Bain Capital produced more jobs than it destroyed. Definitely a fishing theme here.

10 minutes. Huntsman gets to take the test. Another softball. "Should Republicans worry" about the attacks on Romney's business record? It's a perfect set up. But Huntsman can't swing. He reverts to the passive voice. "Well, it's part of his record, and therefore, it's going to be talked about," Huntsman says, before going on about his own "private sector experience."

12 minutes. This gives Romney another chance to repeat his stump speech about how he is good, the private sector is good, and Obama is bad. Debate prep must have been simple for Romney. Think Pavlov's dog. Whatever they say, you just repeat your stump speech. Bell rings, stump speech. Ding-a-ling. Ding-a-ling. Stump speech.

13 minutes. The moderators give up on hooking big fish Romney. They ask Texas Rep. Ron Paul to attack Santorum again for being "a corrupt corporate lobbyist, a Washington insider with a record of betrayal," which Paul has said before, and says again. So begins a five-minute spat between the two men, which does not matter.

15 minutes. Santorum is not wearing enough makeup. His forehead is shiny.

17 minutes. Perry is still running for President, and he weighs in with a well-constructed answer about his opposition to Washington and how he is separated from the rest of the field. It is exactly the kind of answer he needed to give ten debates ago, when huge numbers of people still wanted to believe in him. (See "What You Missed While Not Watching the GOP National-Security Debate.")

20 minutes. Huntsman is asked why he would be a better commander in chief than others on the stage. He says the word "gobbledygook." That is the only part of his answer that is memorable. The rest is a bunch of canned lines, like "Leadership matters to the American people."

21 minutes. Desperate to return to the test, the moderator asks, "Do you want to speak specifically about anybody on the stage?" "They can all speak for themselves," says Huntsman, who is now apparently running for a cabinet secretary post in the Romney administration.

22 minutes. "Governor Romney?" asks ABC's Diane Sawyer. Romney accurately points out that this is not really a question. So Sawyer asks him a question. But the question does not matter, because all Romney hears is the bell ringing. "Look," says Romney, "this is a failed presidency."

25 minutes. Perry is asked if it matters that he has served in the military, while others have not. The answer is basically yes. Then Paul and Gingrich start arguing about whether Gingrich is a "chicken hawk" for never having served. "The fact is, I never asked for deferment. I was married with a child. It was never a question," says Gingrich of the Vietnam War. "When I was drafted, I was married and had two kids, and I went," says Paul. "I wasn't eligible for the draft," Gingrich responds. Different ages. Different wars. Different rules.

30 minutes. Paul is asked about the old racist newsletter he used to publish. Paul says he didn't write the newsletter, and that he loves Martin Luther King, Jr. "He practiced the libertarian principle of peaceful resistance and peaceful civil disobedience, as did Rosa Parks," says Paul. Paul did vote to establish Martin Luther King Day. His newsletter called it "Hate whitey day."

32 minutes. With that, a commercial break. Remember. This is a double feature. A long way to go. If you pop the popcorn now, it will be stale at the end. So far, Romney's ding-a-ling strategy is dominant.

38 minutes. Clearly desperate, moderator George Stephanopoulos swings for the fences. He asks Romney if the Supreme Court should be able to ban adults from using contraception, given Romney's refusal to embrace the right to privacy that outlaws bans on abortions. It's a head scratcher, dating to a court case you probably never heard about. Romney realizes that this is not just any ringing bell. So he refuses to answer. "George, this is an unusual topic that you're raising," he says. Then Romney utters one of the coolest quotes from any of the debates. "Contraception. It's working just fine. Just leave it alone." Put it in a position paper. Enshrine it in the party platform. It even fits on a bumper sticker.

43 minutes. Working contraception somehow logically leads to same sex relationships. The candidates must deal. Gingrich says he would give the rights that "are most intimately human between friends" to gay couples, like hospital visitation. But no marriage. Huntsman says he likes civil unions, and is "glad we are off the contraception discussion." Santorum says he opposes gay couples adopting children, but that should be a state issue, unlike marriage which should be a federal issue. Santorum also says he wants to nullify the gay marriages that have occurred. Sawyer prompts Romney to address the subject "in human terms." He says gays should be able to have "a contractual relationship" short of marriage. For Romney, contracts are very human. (See "What You Missed While Not Watching the CNBC 'Oops' Republican Debate.")

51 minutes. Stephanopoulos breaks the gay spell by asking Paul if he will commit to supporting the GOP nominee, or run as a third party candidate. Paul says he has no plans, but his options are open.

54 minutes. Huntsman says he would draw down the troops in Afghanistan in his first year as President. Romney says he would listen to "the commanders on the ground" and bring the troops home as soon as possible. History is at work. Romney's father, George, who lost his 1968 campaign for President after he questioned the judgment of the commanders on the ground in Vietnam. Mitt won't make same mistake.

56 minutes. Huntsman notices, goes George Romney in a big way. "But we also deferred to the commanders on the ground in about 1967, during the Vietnam War, and we didn't get very good advice then." Romney lets it pass.

57 minutes. Gingrich says "fundamentally" for perhaps the first time tonight. He calls for "a fundamentally new strategy in the region," but he has no time to elaborate. Santorum says he would stay as long as it took. Perry says he would send U.S. troops back into Iraq right away. "We're going to see Iran, in my opinion, move back in at literally the speed of light," Perry says, endowing the Iranians with physics-defying abilities that would make a nuclear weapon irrelevant.

66 minutes. Break. Still way too early to pop popcorn. Remember. This one will literally take 14 hours to finish.

72 minutes. We're back. Romney says he wants to rebuild aging infrastructure, which sounds almost like he agrees with Obama. So he adds that he is against "President Obama's social welfare state."

75 minutes. Gingrich agrees. More talk of infrastructure. Then talk of taxation. No new ground. Moderators try and fail to get something started. Paul says stuff like "Restore America to our freedoms." Romney says stuff like, "The people that have been hurt in the Obama economy are the people in the middle-class." Huntsman says, "We've got to stimulate some confidence in the creative class of this country." Perry says, "They want Washington out of their hair." It's like those individually packaged, low-calorie snacks they market to overweight, middle-aged office workers -- looks like chocolate, tastes like Styrofoam.

85 minutes. Romney notices that everyone is falling asleep. He interprets this as a bell. "The real issue is the vision for this country," he says. "This election is about the soul of America." Give him a bone. This passes for passing the test.

87 minutes. Gingrich is jolted to life. He cites the Wall Street Journal editorial board and calls Romney timid and more like Obama. "I do think there's a difference between a bold Reagan conservative model and a more establishment model that is a little more cautious about taking the kind of changes we need." This falls short of memorable. (See "What You Missed While Not Watching the Las Vegas GOP Debate.")

88 minutes. Santorum tries to come to life. He agrees that Romney is not bold, then objects to Romney's use of the phrase "middle class." "There are no classes in America. We are a country that don't allow for titles. We don't put people in classes," he says. None of this is true. But at least Santorum is trying.

89 minutes. Romney puts everyone back under his fishy spell. "This is really a campaign about the direction of the country," he says. Ding-a-ling.

91 minutes. Huntsman gets a question about what he would do in China, and like at other debates, he responds by saying it's a really complicated issue. "It's nonsense to think you can slap a tariff on China the first day that you're in office, as Governor Romney would like to do," he adds.

92 minutes. For some reason the bell does not ring for Romney. So he hits back, which is dangerous. "I'm sorry, Governor, you were, the last two years, implementing the policies of this administration in China. The rest of us on this stage were doing our best to get Republicans elected across the country and stop the policies of this President from being put forward," he says.

93 minutes. Huntsman goes native, and responds in Mandarin Chinese to Romney. It is not a phrase that can be transcribed in English easily. It sounds like music, sung from a mouth full of eels. The crowd is stunned. It is as if Huntsman was suddenly taken over by the spirit, as if he spoke in tongues. He comes back though, says again that Romney is risking a trade war.

94 minutes. Romney says Huntsman is wrong, and the last thing China wants is a trade war. In English.

95 minutes. Cut to last commercial, pre-intermission.

100 minutes. The silly final question. Another softball. "It's Saturday night, again, as we meet, so if you weren't here running for President, Governor Perry, what would you be doing on a Saturday night?" "I'd probably be at the shooting range," says Perry, killing it. Then it goes downhill. "I'd be watching the college championship basketball game," says Gingrich. There is no such thing. "Football game," Gingrich corrects, but he is still wrong. That game will be played Monday. It is a train wreck, and Santorum piles on. "I'd be doing the same thing with my family. We'd be huddled around, and we'd be watching the championship game," he says, even though the game doesn't exist. Romney says, "I'm afraid it's football. I love it," but since the NFL is playing tonight, he may actually know what he is saying. Paul says, "I'd probably read an economic textbook." Lovable. Huntsman goes last, and panders big. "I'd be on the phone with my two boys in the United States Navy, because they're a constant reminder of what is great about this nation and awesome about the emerging generation in this country." Really, it's a pretty embarrassing way to go out for all involved.

104 minutes. That's it. So far, this has been a bust. None of it will make a difference. Romney's ding-a-ling training dominates. Now it is intermission time. See you in 616 minutes, when the next debate starts.

720 minutes. We're back, on a different network, in a different town, on a different date, with the same six guys at 9 a.m. As is his habit, NBC News' David Gregory is speaking in sentence fragments to introduce with punch. "Small state. Big impact on the race," he says. "The candidates, the issues and your questions." That last part is about Facebook, which has partnered with this part of the debate, promising that elusive silliness known as interactivity on a national scale. "Candidates, good morning," Gregory says. They all respond, in unison, "Good morning." Coffee seems to have done them good.

721 minutes. The last 617 minutes -- it's true no one sleeps on the campaign trail -- have been filled with pointed criticism of the non-Romney candidates for failing to leave a mark on the frontrunner. Gregory is here to give everyone another chance. "Speaker Gingrich, why shouldn't Governor Romney be the nominee of this party?"

722 minutes. Game on. "I think that a bold Reagan conservative, with a very strong economic plan, is a lot more likely to succeed in that campaign than a relatively timid, Massachusetts moderate who even the Wall Street Journal said had an economic plan so timid it resembled Obama," he says. Now Gingrich is saying it himself, not just pointing to what a newspaper said. Gregory doubles down: Is Romney electable? Now Gingrich loses his nerve. "No, I don't believe he's unelectable," he says, with a triple negatives. Then Gregory holds up a Gingrich campaign flier. "It says very clearly, 'Romney is not electable'" Gregory says. Gingrich is caught. "I think he will have a very hard time getting elected," he manages.

723 minutes. Romney gets his chance to respond. Ding-a-ling. "We created more jobs in Massachusetts than Barack Obama's created in the entire country," Romney says. It's a questionable statement. Millions of jobs have been created under Obama. It's just that more were lost in the beginning on Obama's term. Romney's figure is net-net, as he would say.

726 minutes. Santorum gets his chance to make up for last night. "We want someone, when the time gets tough -- and it will in this election -- we want someone who's going to stand up and fight for the conservative principles, not bail out and not run, and not run to the left of Ted Kennedy," Santorum says. Gregory points out that Santorum praised Romney's "conservative principles" in 2008. Santorum is caught.

728 minutes. Romney tries to respond. Santorum talks over him. Romney barks, "It's still. It's still my time." Finally, we have a real debate. They bicker for a while. Romney says he's not a Washington insider. And that he will run for reelection if he is elected President. Romney talks over his time.

729 minutes. This gives Gingrich an entry. "Mitt, I realize the red light doesn't mean anything to you, because you're the frontrunner," he says. The crowd delivers the first real applause of the night. Gingrich is feeling good. "Can we drop a little bit of the pious baloney?" Gingrich continues. "The fact is, you ran in '94 and lost. That's why you weren't serving in the Senate with Rick Santorum." This is true. But who ever thought that you could point this out with the words "pious baloney"?

731 minutes. Romney is swimming a little here. The Pavlovian training has failed him. He gets defensive. "Mr. Speaker, citizenship has always been on my mind and -- and I happened to see my dad run for governor when he was 54-years-old. He had good advice to me. He said, Mitt, never get involved in politics if you have to win an election to pay a mortgage," Romney says. At first this sounds like a strong statement. But it also suggests that only the wealthy should run for office. So it's a mistake.

732 minutes. Ron Paul comes to Romney's rescue, by talking about TARP and overseas spending and the horribleness of President Obama.

733 minutes. Perry piles on, but instead of going after Romney, he tries to swipe the entire stage. "I look from here down to Rick Santorum I see insiders," he says from one end of the stage.

734 minutes. Huntsman gets a question about spending. But he too has slept on last night's disappointment. He has a pre-packaged attack against Romney over the swipe about Huntsman serving in China for the Obama Administration. (See Minute 92.) "He criticized me while he was out raising money for serving my country in China, yes, under a Democrat, like my two sons are doing in the United States Navy. They're not asking who -- what political affiliation the President is," Huntsman says. "I want to be very clear with the people here in New Hampshire and this country: I will always put my country first." "Country First" is John McCain's old slogan. It has a good track record in New Hampshire.

735 minutes. Romney has totally forgotten about Pavlov, the dog, the bell, his game plan. He digs himself deeper. "I think we serve our country first by standing for people who believe in conservative principles and doing everything in our power to promote an agenda that does not include President Obama's agenda," says Romney. It's not a statement he really means, since it would basically prevent conservatives from joining the U.S. military to fight in Afghanistan under Obama.

736 minutes. Huntsman has his best moment in 15 debates: "This nation is divided, David, because of attitudes like that," he says to the moderator. Again the crowd erupts in un-Romney cheers. Romney does not respond. He needs to think about the bell.

738 minutes. A discussion commences about the various programs that should be cut to reduce spending. The candidates generally agree on entitlements. Perry gets to revisit his most famous flub, this time remembering the three departments -- commerce, energy and education -- he wants to eliminate. Santorum gets to talk about reducing food stamps.

743 minutes. Commercial break. Things are going well. Maybe all debates should be Sunday morning debates.

748 minutes. We're back. Gregory asks a trick question: "Who knows more about the American economy, Grover Norquist or Warren Buffet?" It's a trick because the right answer, Buffett, would offend conservatives. And the wrong answer, Norquist, would undermine Romney's businessman sales pitch. Romney reverts to the royal we. "I'm not sure that we're going to choose from the two of them," he says.

750 minutes. More miscellany. Huntsman says again he is interested in a balanced approach to deficit reduction, even though he raised his hand at his first debate months ago to suggest otherwise. Gingrich talks about Mitch McConnell and Harry Reid. Romney brags about the Democratic legislature he found a way to get along with in Massachusetts. Paul defends his record in Congress of hardly ever getting anything done. Then Paul and Santorum get into another one of their periodic spats. Huntsman says he will restore trust in the country. Perry repeats that Republicans spent to much money during the Bush years. It is as if all the past debates had been put into a blender and spit back out.

762 minutes. Second commercial break. Now would be a great time to pop that popcorn.

765 minutes. A question about reductions in federal subsidies for home heating oil. Huntsman says it's a real issue. Paul doesn't want the government giving anyone cheap oil. Romney splits the baby and says send the money that is left to the states to better use it.

770 minutes. Gay time. Romney is asked about his 1994 promise to be a "voice in the Republican Party to foster anti-discrimination efforts." Romney says he has appointed lots of gay people to positions in Massachusetts. Then Santorum gets a couple questions, including one about what he would do if his son said he was gay. "I would love him as much as I did the second before he said it," Santorum says. "And I would try to do everything I can to be as good a father to him as possible." Good answer.

772 minutes. The candidates are asked why labor unions are good, which is like asking a Chicago Bears fan to praise Aaron Rodgers. Romney says they train workers well. Santorum says they can bring communities together.

776 minutes. Commercial break. Hope the popcorn is ready. You are really a trooper. Democracy should not be this trying. But it is.

780 minutes. We are back. Why is it that most of what matters in a debate either happens in the first 15 minutes or the last five? That's a rhetorical question. But there is a right answer: They are too long.

781 minutes. Gingrich is asked about an absurd comment that Romney made: That young people will have jobs if he gets elected, but not if Obama wins reelection. "I think that's a statement of fact," Gingrich says.

782 minutes. This gives Romney a chance to respond, once again, to the bell. "I don't blame him for the recession and for the decline," Romney says of Obama. "What I blame him for is having it go on so long and going so deep and having a recovery that's been so tepid."

783 minutes. The candidates talk about natural gas, the EPA, the motto of New Hampshire, the prescription drug benefit, power plant emissions, and other things, without making any news, or breaking any new ground.

792 minutes. Final break.

795 minutes. Home stretch. Gregory asks Gingrich and Romney to talk about the Super PACs supporting them. They are both asked to disown the PACs efforts, and both decline. Romney gets twisted up. "With regards to their ads, I haven't seen them. And, as you know, under the law, I can't direct their ads," he says of his own PAC. The second part is true. The first part is almost certainly not. A few moments later, Romney lays out the factual details of the ad he claims to have never seen. This is sort of damning. But really, who is paying attention at this point. It's about 10:30 a.m. on a Sunday morning, at the end of the 15th GOP presidential debate. Anyone not being paid to keep up with this stuff, who is still keeping up with this stuff, should get a prize.

804 minutes. It's over. It's done. 804 minutes later. You are free. Until next week in South Carolina, when it all starts again. And there is no prize.

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Friday, January 6, 2012

The 25% Solution: How Romney Plans to Finish the GOP Race by Florida (Time.com)

An eight-vote, 25% victory may look weak, but Mitt Romney's narrow win in the Iowa caucuses Tuesday has his campaign charting a plan for ultimate victory by the time Florida Republicans hold their primary on Jan. 31. The strategy: use a dominating win in New Hampshire to cast weak victories in Iowa and South Carolina as a sign of Romney's inevitable nomination.

The expectation of a Romney victory in New Hampshire makes an overwhelming showing in next Tuesday's primary necessary. Romney's campaign is dispatching their candidate to towns with typically high primary turnout in southern and central New Hampshire, like those in Hillsborough and Belknap Counties. At the same time Romney's formidable New Hampshire operation is up with TV, radio and print ads, and is calling, e-mailing and snail-mailing likely primary voters.

Senator John McCain, who is campaigning for his 2008 primary rival, told voters in Peterborough, NH Wednesday that the goal was to "get this thing over with" by sending Romney to the Jan. 21 primary in South Carolina "with so much momentum that he can't be stopped." A 7 News/Suffolk University tracking poll Wednesday morning had Romney with 43% support in New Hampshire while his closest rival, Ron Paul, had 14%. That margin had widened in recent days, suggesting Romney's headed in the right direction but that he may need a blowout to beat expectations. (PHOTOS: The Iowa Caucus in Two Minutes)

Surrogates like McCain are a key part to the Romney plan to project inevitability. Endorsements typically don't guarantee votes, but the campaign believes that by dispatching known politicians state-wide in New Hampshire and South Carolina it can increase coverage by recognized figures, driving pro-Romney voters. In the Granite State, the campaign is dispatching New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte, Congressman Charlie Bass, former GOP candidate and Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, and former New Hampshire Gov. John Sununu. In South Carolina, Gov. Nikki Haley will join McCain to do events with Romney Thursday and Friday in moderate retirement districts in Charleston and Myrtle Beach. The campaign hopes Sen. Lindsey Graham will eventually back Romney, and will campaign for him; Graham says he has no plans to endorse a candidate yet.

The New Hampshire fight may get ugly, and the South Carolina one surely will. Romney supporters are watching for the expected push back from Newt Gingrich, who plummeted in the polls after pro-Romney groups attacked him in Iowa and elsewhere. The response will be to ignore the former Speaker and act presidential in the expectation that Gingrich will do as much damage to himself as he will to Romney. Rick Santorum has spent a lot of time in New Hampshire and is viewed as a threat; the attacks on him, Romney aides say, will focus on his time on Capitol Hill and in his role as a Washington power player after his 2006 Senate lossthe same attacks that worked against Gingrich. (PHOTOS: Battle for Iowa: the Final Days of the Caucus Campaign in Photos)

Romney's hope for South Carolina is that Gingrich, Santorum, Congressman Ron Paul and Texas Governor Rick Perry will split the conservative vote sufficiently to allow a low showing -- perhaps even less than the 25% he won in Iowa -- to give him a win. As he mounts rear-guard actions against the GOP attacks, Romney is focusing his forward efforts on Obama, attacking his record, running to the President's right on foreign policy and appealing to independents where that helps. In Peterborough, Romney praised FDR for starting the tradition of putting one's hand over one's heart while singing the national anthem, and said his foreign policy would be based on Harry Truman's principles. (MORE: The 25% Solution: How Romney Plans To Finish the GOP Race By Florida)

The last element to the Romney strategy for victory by the end of January is to talk as if a win is unlikely, even as he tries to project inevitability. The early voters of New Hampshire and South Carolina hate being taken for granted, so those around Romney are declaring they're hunkering down for the long term, well past Florida. After a Romney event in Manchester Wednesday, Gov. Sununu said soberly, "I think we have to get used to the idea that this is a long haul campaign." Unless Romney can help it.

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Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Why Don't They Like Mitt Romney? (Time.com)

The natural born killers waited until the parents were asleep upstairs before heading down to the basement to put on their show. The first videotape is almost unbearable to watch.

Dylan Klebold sits in the tan La-Z-Boy, chewing on a toothpick. Eric Harris adjusts his video camera a few feet away, then settles into his chair with a bottle of Jack Daniels and a sawed-off shotgun in his lap. He calls it Arlene, after a favorite character in the gory Doom video games and books that he likes so much. He takes a small swig. The whiskey stings, but he tries to hide it, like a small child playing grownup. These videos, they predict, will be shown all around the world one day -- once they have produced their masterpiece and everyone wants to know how, and why. (See TIME's photoessay "Columbine 10 Years Later: The Evidence")

Above all, they want to be seen as originals. "Do not think we're trying to copy anyone," Harris warns, recalling the school shootings in Oregon and Kentucky. They had the idea long ago, "before the first one ever happened."

And their plan is better, "not like those f____s in Kentucky with camouflage and .22s. Those kids were only trying to be accepted by others."

Harris and Klebold have an inventory of their ecumenical hatred: all "niggers, spics, Jews, gays, f___ing whites," the enemies who abused them and the friends who didn't do enough to defend them. But it will all be over soon. "I hope we kill 250 of you," Klebold says. He thinks it will be the most "nerve-racking 15 minutes of my life, after the bombs are set and we're waiting to charge through the school. Seconds will be like hours. I can't wait. I'll be shaking like a leaf." (See pictures of America's Gun Culture.)

"It's going to be like f___ing Doom," Harris says. "Tick, tick, tick, tick... Haa! That f___ing shotgun is straight out of Doom!"

How easy it has been to fool everyone, as they staged their dress rehearsals, gathered their props -- the shotguns in their gym bags, the pipe bombs in the closet. Klebold recounts for the camera the time his parents walked in on him when he was trying on his black leather trench coat, with his sawed-off shotgun hidden underneath: "They didn't even know it was there." Once, Harris recalls, his mother saw him carrying a gym bags with a gun handle sticking out of the zipper. She assumed it was his BB gun. Every day Klebold and Harris went to school, sat in class, had lunch with their schoolmates, worked with their teachers and plotted their slaughter. People fell for every lie. "I could convince them that I'm going to climb Mount Everest, or I have a twin brother growing out of my back," says Harris. "I can make you believe anything."

Even when it is over, they promise, it will not be over. In memory and nightmares, they hope to live forever. "We're going to kick-start a revolution," Harris says -- a revolution of the dispossessed. They talk about being ghosts who will haunt the survivors -- "create flashbacks from what we do," Harris promises, "and drive them insane."

It is getting late now. Harris looks at his watch. He says the time is 1:28 a.m. March 15. Klebold says people will note the date and time when watching it. And he knows what his parents will be thinking. "If only we could have reached them sooner or found this tape," he predicts they will say. "If only we would have searched their room," says Harris. "If only we would have asked the right questions."

Since then, we've never stopped asking, of course, in our aching effort to get back on our feet, slowly, carefully, only to be pushed back down again. And what if the answers turn out to be different from what we've heard all along? A six-week TIME investigation of the Columbine case tracked the efforts of the police and FBI, who are still sorting through some 10,000 pieces of evidence, 5,000 leads, the boys' journals and websites and the five secret home videos they made in the weeks before the massacre. Within the next few weeks, the investigators are expected to issue their report, and their findings are bound to surprise a town, and a country, that has heard all about the culture of cruelty, the bullying jocks, and has concluded that two ugly, angry boys just snapped, and fired back.

It turns out there is much more to the story than that.

Why, if their motive was rage at the athletes who taunted them, didn't they take their guns and bombs to the locker room? Because retaliation against specific people was not the point. Because this may have been about celebrity as much as cruelty. "They wanted to be famous," concludes FBI agent Mark Holstlaw. "And they are. They're infamous." It used to be said that living well is the best revenge; for these two, it was to kill and die in spectacular fashion.

This is not to say the humiliation Harris and Klebold felt was not a cause. Because they were steeped in violence and drained of mercy, they could accomplish everything at once: payback to those who hurt them, and glory, the creation of a cult, for all those who have suffered and been cast out. They wanted movies made of their story, which they had carefully laced with "a lot of foreshadowing and dramatic irony," as Harris put it. There was that poem he wrote, imagining himself as a bullet. "Directors will be fighting over this story," Klebold said -- and the boys chewed over which could be trusted with the script: Steven Spielberg or Quentin Tarantino. "You have two individuals who wanted to immortalize themselves," says Holstlaw. "They wanted to be martyrs and to document everything they were doing."

These boys had read their Shakespeare: "Good wombs hath borne bad sons," Harris quoted from The Tempest, as he reflected on how his rampage would ruin his parents' lives. The boys knew that once they staged their final act, the audience would be desperate for meaning. And so they provided their own poisonous chorus, about why they hated so many people so much. In the weeks before what they called their Judgment Day, they sat in their basement and made their haunting videos -- detailing their plans, their motives, even their regrets -- which Harris left in his bedroom for the police and his parents to find when it was all over.

The dilemma for many families at Columbine is ours as well. For months they have searched for answers. "It's not going to bring anything or anybody back," says Mike Kirklin, whose son survived a shot in the face. "But we do need to know. Why did they do this?" Still, the last thing the survivors want is to see these boys on the cover of another magazine, back in the headlines, on the evening news. We need to understand them, but we don't want to look at them. And yet there is no escaping this story. Last week another child shot up another school, this time an Oklahoma junior high where four were injured, and all the questions came gushing out one more time.

At Columbine, some wounds are slow to heal. The old library is walled off, while the victims' families try to raise the money to replace it by building a new one. The students still have trouble with fire drills. Some report that kids are drinking more heavily now, saying more prayers, seeing more counselors -- 550 visits so far this year. Two dozen students are homebound, unable, whether physically or emotionally, to come back to class yet. Tour-bus groups have changed their routes to stop at the high school, and stare.

Some people have found a way to forgive: even parents who lost their beloved children; even kids who won't ever walk again, or speak clearly, or grow old together with a sister who died on the school lawn. But other survivors are still on a journey, through dark places of anger and suspicion, aimed at a government they fear wants to cover up the misjudgments of police; at a school that wants to shift blame; at the killers' parents, who have stated their regrets in written statements issued through their lawyers but who still aren't saying much and who surely, surely had to know something.

It's easy now to see the signs: how a video-game joystick turned Harris into a better marksman, like a golfer who watches Tiger Woods videos; how he decided to stop taking his Luvox, to let his anger flare, undiluted by medication. How Klebold's violent essays for English class were like skywriting his intent. If only the parents had looked in the middle drawer of Harris' desk, they would have found the four windup clocks that he later used as timing devices. Check the duffel bag in the closet; the pipe bombs are inside. In his CD collection, they would have found a recording that meant so much to him that he willed it to a girl in his last videotaped suicide message. The name of the album? Bombthreat Before She Blows.

The problem is that until April 20, nobody was looking. And Harris and Klebold knew it.

THE BASEMENT TAPES

The tapes were meant to be their final word, to all those who had picked on them over the years, and to everyone who would come up with a theory about their inner demons. It is clear listening to them that Harris and Klebold were not just having trouble with what their counselors called "anger management." They fed the anger, fueled it, so the fury could take hold, because they knew they would need it to do what they had set out to do. "More rage. More rage," Harris says. "Keep building it on," he says, motioning with his hands for emphasis.

Harris recalls how he moved around so much with his military family and always had to start over, "at the bottom of the ladder." People continually made fun of him -- "my face, my hair, my shirts." As for Klebold, "If you could see all the anger I've stored over the past four f___ing years..." he says. His brother Byron was popular and athletic and constantly "ripped" on him, as did the brother's friends. Except for his parents, Klebold says, his extended family treated him like the runt of the litter. "You made me what I am," he said. "You added to the rage." As far back as the Foothills Day Care center, he hated the "stuck-up" kids he felt hated him. "Being shy didn't help," he admits. "I'm going to kill you all. You've been giving us s___ for years."

Klebold and Harris were completely soaked in violence: in movies like Reservoir Dogs; in gory video games that they tailored to their imaginations. Harris liked to call himself "Reb," short for rebel. Klebold's nickname was VoDKa (his favorite liquor, with the capital DK for his initials). On pipe bombs used in the massacre he wrote "VoDKa Vengeance."

That they were aiming for 250 dead shows that their motives went far beyond targeting the people who teased them. They planned it very carefully: when they would strike, where they would put the bombs, whether the fire sprinklers would snuff out their fuses. They could hardly wait. Harris picks up the shotgun and makes shooting noises. "Isn't it fun to get the respect that we're going to deserve?" he asks.

The tapes are a cloudy window on their moral order. They defend the friends who bought the guns for them, who Harris and Klebold say knew nothing of their intentions -- as though they are concerned that innocent people not be blamed for their massacre of innocent people. If they hadn't got the guns where they did, Harris says, "we would have found something else."

They had many chances to turn back -- and many chances to get caught. They "came close" one day, when an employee of Green Mountain Guns called Harris' house and his father answered the phone. "Hey, your clips are in," the clerk said. His father replied that he hadn't ordered any clips and, as Harris retells it, didn't ask whether the clerk had dialed the right number. If either one had asked just one question, says Harris, "we would've been f___ed."

"We wouldn't be able to do what we're going to do," Klebold adds.

THE WARNING SIGNS

You could fill a good-size room with the people whose lives have been twisted into ropes of guilt by the events leading up to that awful day, and by the day itself. The teachers who read the essays but didn't hear the warnings, the cops who were tipped to Harris' poisonous website but didn't act on it, the judge and youth-services counselor who put the boys through a year of community service after they broke into a van and then concluded that they had been rehabilitated. Because so many people are being blamed and threatened with lawsuits, there are all kinds of public explanations designed to diffuse and defend. But there are private conversations going on as well, within the families, among the cops, in the teachers' lounge, where people are asking themselves what they could have done differently. Neil Gardner, the deputy assigned to the school who traded gunfire with Harris, says he wishes he could have done more. But with the criticism, he has learned, "you're not a hero unless you die."

Nearly everyone who ever knew Harris or Klebold has asked himself the same question: How could we have been duped? Yet the boys were not loners; they had a circle of friends. Harris played soccer (until the fall of 1998), and Klebold was in the drama club. Just the week before the rampage, the boys had to write a poem for an English class. Harris wrote about stopping the hate and loving the world. Klebold went to the prom the weekend before the slaughter; Harris couldn't get a date but joined him at the postprom parties, to celebrate with students they were planning to kill.

To adults, Klebold had always come across as the bashful, nervous type who could not lie very well. Yet he managed to keep his dark side a secret. "People have no clue," Klebold says on one videotape. But they should have had. And this is one of the most painful parts of the puzzle, to look back and see the flashing red lights -- especially regarding Harris -- that no one paid attention to. No one except, perhaps, the Brown family.

Brooks Brown became notorious after the massacre because certain police officers let slip rumors that he might have somehow been involved. And indeed he was -- but not in the way the police were suggesting. Brown and Harris had had an argument back in 1998, and Harris had threatened Brown; Klebold also told him that he should read Harris' website on AOL, and he gave Brooks the Web address.

And there it all was: the dimensions and nicknames of his pipe bombs. The targets of his wrath. The meaning of his life. "I'm coming for EVERYONE soon and I WILL be armed to the f___ing teeth and I WILL shoot to kill." He rails against the people of Denver, "with their rich snobby attitude thinkin they are all high and mighty... God, I can't wait til I can kill you people. Feel no remorse, no sense of shame. I don't care if I live or die in the shoot-out. All I want to do is kill and injure as many of you as I can, especially a few people. Like Brooks Brown."

The Browns didn't know what to do. "We were talking about our son's life," says Judy Brown. She and her husband argued heatedly. Randy Brown wanted to call Harris' father. But Judy didn't think the father would do anything; he hadn't disciplined his son for throwing an ice ball at the Browns' car. Randy considered anonymously faxing printouts from the website to Harris' father at work, but Judy thought it might only provoke Harris to violence.

Though she had been friends with Susan Klebold for years, Judy hesitated to call and tell her what was said on the website, which included details of Eric and Dylan's making bombs together. In the end, the Browns decided to call the sheriff's office. On the night of March 18, a deputy came to their house. They gave him printouts of the website, and he wrote a report for what he labeled a "suspicious incident." The Browns provided names and addresses for both Harris and Klebold, but they say they told the deputy that they did not want Harris to know their son had reported him.

A week or so later, Judy called the sheriff's office to find out what had become of their complaint. The detective she spoke with seemed uninterested; he even apologized for being so callous because he had seen so much crime. Mrs. Brown persisted, and she and her husband met with detectives on March 31. Members of the bomb squad helpfully showed them what a pipe bomb looked like -- in case one turned up in their mailbox.

The police already had a file on the boys, it turns out: they had been caught breaking into a van and were about to be sentenced. But somehow the new complaint never intersected the first; the Harrises and Klebolds were never told that a new complaint had been leveled at Eric Harris. And as weeks passed, the Browns found it harder to get their calls returned as detectives focused on an unrelated triple homicide. Meanwhile, at the school, Deputy Gardner told the two deans that the police were investigating a boy who was looking up how to make pipe bombs on the Web. But the deans weren't shown the Web page, nor were they given Eric's name.

As more time passed and nothing happened, the Browns' fears eased -- though they were troubled when their son started hanging out with Harris again. Then came April 20. As the gunmen entered the school, Harris saw Brown and told him to run away. But when all the smoke had cleared and the bodies counted, the Browns went public with their charge that the police had failed to heed their warnings. And even some cops agree.

"It should have been followed up," says Sheriff Stone, who did not take office until January 1999. "It fell through the cracks," admits John Kiekbusch, the sheriff's division chief in charge of investigations and patrol.

Some people still think Brooks Brown must have been involved. When he goes to the Dairy Queen, the kid at the drive-through recognizes him and locks all the doors and windows. Brown knows it is almost impossible to convince people that the rumors were never true. Like many kids, his life now has its markers: before Columbine and after.

THE INVESTIGATORS

Detective Kate Battan still sees it in her sleep -- still sees what she saw that first day in April, when she was chosen to lead the task force that would investigate the massacre. Bullet holes in the banks of blue lockers. Ceiling tiles ajar where kids had scampered to hide in the crawl space. Shoes left behind by kids who literally ran out of them. Dead bodies in the library, where students cowered beneath tables. One boy died clenching his eyeglasses, and another gripped a pencil as he drew his last breath. Was he writing a goodbye note? Or was he so scared that he forgot he held it? "It was like you walked in and time stopped," says Battan. "These are kids. You can't help but think about what their last few minutes were like."

Long after the bodies had been identified, Battan kept the Polaroids of them in her briefcase. Every morning when starting work, she'd look at them to remind herself whom she was working for.

On the Columbine task force, Battan was known as the Whip. As the lead investigator, she kept 80-plus detectives on track. The task force broke into teams: the pre-bomb team, which took the outside of the school; the library team; the cafeteria team; and the associates team, which investigated Harris' and Klebold's friends, including the so-called Trench Coat Mafia, as possible accomplices.

Rich Price is an FBI special agent assigned to the domestic terrorism squad in Denver, a veteran of Oklahoma City and the Olympic Park bombing in Atlanta. He was in the North Carolina mountains searching for suspected bomber Eric Rudolph on April 20 when he heard about the rampage at Columbine. In TV news footage that afternoon, he saw his Denver-based colleagues on the scene and called his office. He was told to return to Denver ASAP -- suddenly two teenage boys had become the target of a domestic-terrorism probe.

Price became head of the cafeteria team, re-creating the morning that hell broke loose. The investigators have talked to the survivors, the teachers, the school authorities; they have reviewed the videotapes from four security cameras placed in the cafeteria, as well as the videos the killers made. And they have walked the school, step by step, trying to re-create 46 minutes that left behind 15 dead bodies and a thousand questions.

Battan is very clear about her responsibilities. "I work for the victims. When they don't have any more questions, then I feel I've done my job."

It quickly became obvious to the investigators that the assault did not go as the killers had planned. They had wanted to bomb first, then shoot. So they planted three sets of bombs: one set a few miles away, timed to go off first and lure police away from the school; a second set in the cafeteria, to flush terrified students out into the parking lot, where Harris and Klebold would be waiting with their guns to mow them down; and then a third set in their cars, timed to go off once the ambulances and rescue workers descended, to kill them as well. What actually happened instead was mainly an improvisation.

Just before 11 a.m. they hauled two duffel bags containing propane-tank bombs into the cafeteria. Then they returned to their cars, strapped on their weapons and ammunition, pulled on their black trench coats and settled in to wait.

Judgment Day, as they called it, was to begin at 11:17 a.m. But the bombs didn't go off. After two minutes, they walked toward the school and opened fire, shooting randomly and killing the first two of their 13 victims. And then they headed into the building.

Deputy Gardner was eating his lunch in his patrol car when a janitor called on the radio, saying a girl was down in the parking lot. Gardner drove toward her, heard gunshots and dived behind a Chevy Blazer, trading shots with Harris. "I've got to kill this kid," he kept telling himself. But he was terrified of shooting someone else by accident -- and his training instructions directed that he concentrate on guarding the perimeter, so no one could escape.

Patti Nielson, a teacher, had seen Harris and Klebold coming and ran a few steps ahead of them into the library. One kid was doing his math homework on a calculator; another was filling out a college application; another was reading an article in PEOPLE about Brooke Shields' breakup with Andre Agassi. "Get down!" Nielson screamed. She dialed 911 and dropped the phone when the two gunmen came in. And so the police have a tape of everything that happened next.

The 911 dispatcher listening on the open phone line could hear Harris and Klebold laughing as their victims screamed. When Harris found Cassie Bernall, he leaned down. "Peekaboo," he said, and killed her. His shotgun kicked, stunning him and breaking his nose. Blood streamed down his face as he turned to see Brea Pasquale sitting on the floor because she couldn't fit under a table. "Do you want to die today?" he asked her. "No," she quivered. Just then Klebold called to him, which spared her life.

Why hadn't anyone stopped them yet? It was now 11:29; because of the open line, the 911 dispatcher knew for certain -- for seven long minutes -- that the gunmen were there in the library and were shooting fellow students. At that early stage, though, only about a dozen cops had arrived on the scene, and none of them had protective gear or heavy weapons. They could have charged in with their handguns, but their training, and orders from their commanders, told them to "secure the perimeter" so the shooters couldn't escape and couldn't pursue the students who had fled. And by the time the trained SWAT units were pulling in, the killers were on the move again.

Leaving the library, Harris and Klebold walked down a flight of stairs to the cafeteria. It was empty, except for 450 book bags and the four students who hid beneath tables. All the killing and the yelling upstairs had made the shooters thirsty. Surveillance cameras recorded them as they drank from cups that fleeing kids had left on tables. Then they went back to work. They were frustrated that the bombs they had left, inside and outside, had not exploded, and they watched out the windows as the police and ambulances and SWAT teams descended on the school.

Most people watching the live television coverage that day saw them too, the nearly 800 police officers who would eventually mass outside the high school. The TV audience saw SWAT-team members who stood for hours outside, while, as far as everyone knew at the time, the gunmen were holding kids hostage inside. For the parents whose children were still trapped, there was no excuse for the wait. "When 500 officers go to a battle zone and not one comes away with a scratch, then something's wrong," charges Dale Todd, whose son Evan was wounded inside the school. "I expected dead officers, crippled officers, disfigured officers -- not just children and teachers."

This criticism is "like a punch in the gut," says sheriff's captain Terry Manwaring, who was the SWAT commander that day. "We were prepared to die for those kids."

So why the delay in attacking the gunmen? Chaos played a big part. From the moment of the first report of gunshots at Columbine, SWAT-team members raced in from every direction, some without their equipment, some in jeans and T shirts, just trying to get there quickly. They had only two Plexiglas ballistic shields among them. As Manwaring dressed in his bulletproof gear, he says, he asked several kids to draw on notebook paper whatever they could remember of the layout of the sprawling, 250,000-sq.-ft. school. But the kids were so upset that they were not even sure which way was north.

Through most of the 46 minutes that Harris and Klebold were shooting up the school, police say they couldn't tell where the gunmen were, or how many of them there were. Students and teachers trapped in various parts of the school were flooding 911 dispatchers with calls reporting that the shooters were, simultaneously, inside the cafeteria, the library and the front office. They might have simply followed the sounds of gunfire -- except, police say, fire alarms were ringing so loudly that they couldn't hear a gunshot 20 feet away.

So the officers treated the problem as a hostage situation, moving into the school through entrances far from the one where Harris and Klebold entered. The units painstakingly searched each hallway and closet and classroom and crawl space for gunmen, bombs and booby traps. "Every time we came around a corner," says Sergeant Allen Simmons, who led the first four SWAT officers inside, "we didn't know what was waiting for us." They created safe corridors to evacuate the students they found hiding in classrooms. And they moved very slowly and cautiously.

Evan Todd, 16, tells a different story. Wounded in the library, he waited until the killers moved on, and then he fled outside to safety. Evan, who is familiar with guns, says he immediately briefed a dozen police officers. "I described it all to them -- the guns they were using, the ammo. I told them they could save lives [of the wounded still in the library if they moved in right away]. They told me to calm down and take my frustrations elsewhere."

At about noon Harris and Klebold returned to the library. All but two wounded kids and four teachers had managed to get out while they were gone. The gunmen fired a few more rounds out the window at cops and medics below. Then Klebold placed one final Molotov cocktail, made from a Frappuccino bottle, on a table. As it sizzled and smoked, Harris shot himself, falling to the floor. When Klebold fired seconds later, his Boston Red Sox cap landed on Harris' leg. They were dead by 12:05 p.m., when the sprinkler turned on, extinguishing what was supposed to be their last bomb.

But the police didn't know any of this. They were still searching, slowly, along corridors and in classrooms. They found two janitors hiding in the meat freezer. Students and teachers had barricaded themselves and refused to open doors, worried that the shooters might be posing as cops.

Upstairs in a science classroom, student Kevin Starkey called 911. Teacher Dave Sanders had been shot running in the upstairs hallway, trying to warn people; he was bleeding badly and needed help fast. But by this time the 911 lines were so flooded with calls that the phone company started disconnecting people -- including Starkey. Finally the 911 dispatcher used his personal cell phone and kept a line open to the classroom so he could help guide police there.

Listening to another dispatcher in his earpiece, Sergeant Barry Williams, who was leading a second SWAT team inside, tried to track Sanders down -- but he says no one could tell him where the science rooms were. Still, he and his team searched on, looking for a rag that kids said they had tied on the doorknob as a signal.

The team finally found Sanders in a room with 50 or 60 kids. A paramedic went to work, trying to stop the bleeding and get him out to an ambulance. But it had all taken too long. Though Harris and Klebold had killed themselves three hours earlier, the SWAT team hadn't reached Sanders until close to 3 p.m.

Sanders' daughter Angela often talks to the students who tried to save her dad. "How many of those kids could have lived if they had moved more quickly?" she asks. "This is what I do every day. I sit and ponder, 'What if?'"

The SWAT team members wonder too. By the time they got to the library, they found that the assault on the school was all over. Scattered around the library was "a sea of bombs" that had not exploded. Trying not to kick anything, the SWAT team members looked for survivors. And then they found the killers, already dead. "We'll never know why they stopped when they did," says Battan.

Given how long the cops took and how much ammunition the killers had, the death toll could have been far worse. But some parents still think it didn't need to have been as high as it was. They pressed Colorado Governor Bill Owens, who has appointed a commission to review Columbine and possibly update SWAT tactics for assailants who are moving and shooting. "There may be times when you just walk through until you find the killers," Owens says. "This is the first time this has happened." The local lawmen "didn't know what they were dealing with."

THE PARENTS

Before the SWAT teams ever found the gunmen's bodies, investigators had already left to search the boys' homes: the kids who had managed to flee had told them whom they should be hunting.

When they knocked on each family's door, it was Mr. Harris and Mr. Klebold who answered. By then, news of the assault at Columbine was playing out live on TV. Mr. Harris' first reflex was to call his wife and tell her to come home. And he called his lawyer.

The Klebolds had not been told that their son was definitely involved. They knew his car had been found in the parking lot. They knew witnesses had identified him as a gunman. They knew he was friends with Harris. And they knew he still had not come home, though it was getting late. Mr. Klebold said they had to face the facts. But neither he nor his wife was ready to accept the ugly truth, and they couldn't believe it was happening. "This is real," Mr. Klebold kept saying, as if he had to convince himself. "He's involved."

Within 10 days, the Klebolds sat down with investigators and began to answer their questions. It would be months before the same interviews would take place with the Harrises, who were seeking immunity from prosecution. District Attorney David Thomas says he has not ruled out charges. But at this point, he lacks sufficient evidence of any wrongdoing. And he is not sure whether charging the parents would do any good. "Could I really do anything to punish them anymore?"

Sheriff Stone questioned the Harrises himself. "You want to go after them. How could they not know?" says Stone. "Then you realize they are no different from the rest of us."

Still, of all the unresolved issues about who knew what, the most serious involves Mr. Harris. Investigators have heard from former Columbine student Nathan Dykeman that Mr. Harris may once have found a pipe bomb. Nathan claims Eric Harris told him that his dad took him out and they detonated it together. Nathan is a problematic witness, partly because he accepted money from tabloids after the massacre. His story also amounts to hearsay because it is based on something Harris supposedly said. Investigators have not been able to ask Mr. Harris about it either; the Harrises' lawyer put that kind of question off limits as a condition for their sitting down with investigators at all.

As for the Klebolds, Kate Battan and her sergeant, Randy West, were convinced after their interviews that the parents were fooled liked everyone else. "They were not absentee parents. They're normal people who seem to care for their children and were involved in their life," says Battan. They too have suffered a terrible loss, both of a child and of their trust in their instincts. On what would have been Klebold's 18th birthday recently, Susan Klebold baked him a cake. "They don't have victims' advocates to help them through this," Battan says. They do, however, have a band of devoted friends, and see one or more of them almost every day. In private, the Klebolds try to recall every interaction they had with the son they now realize they never knew: the talks, the car rides, the times they grounded him for something minor. "She wants to know all of it," a friend says of Mrs. Klebold.

Many of the victims' parents wish they could talk to the Klebolds and Harrises, parent to parent. Donna Taylor is caring for her son Mark, 16, who took six 9-mm rounds and spent 39 days in the hospital. She has tried to make contact. "We just want to know," she explains. "From Day One, I wanted to meet and talk with them. I mean, maybe they did watch their boys, and we're not hearing their story."

Throughout the videotapes, it seems as though the only people about whom the killers felt remorse were their parents. "It f___ing sucks to do this to them," Harris says of his parents. "They're going to be put through hell once we do this." And then he speaks directly to them. "There's nothing you guys could've done to prevent this," he says.

Klebold tells his mom and dad they have been "great parents" who taught him "self-awareness, self-reliance...I always appreciated that." He adds, "I'm sorry I have so much rage."

At one point Harris gets very quiet. His parents have probably noticed that he's become distant, withdrawn lately -- but it's been for their own good. "I don't want to spend any more time with them," he says. "I wish they were out of town so I didn't have to look at them and bond more."

Over the months, the police have kept the school apprised of the progress of their investigation: principal Frank DeAngelis has not seen the videotapes, but the evidence that the boys were motivated by many things has prompted some at the school to quietly claim vindication. The charge was that Columbine's social climate was somehow so rancid, the abuse by the school's athletes so relentless, that it drove these boys to murder. The police investigation provides the school with its best defense. "There is nowhere in any of the sheriff's or school's investigation of what happened that shows this was caused by jock culture," says county school spokesman Rick Kaufman. "Both Harris and Klebold dished out as much ribbing as they received. They wanted to become cult heroes. They wanted to make a statement."

That's an overstatement, and it begs the question of why the boys wanted to make such an obscene statement. But many students and faculty were horrified by the way their school was portrayed after the massacre and have tried for the past eight months to correct the record. "I have asked students on occasion," says DeAngelis, "'The things you've read in the paper -- is that happening? Am I just naive?' And they've said, 'Mr. DeAngelis, we don't see it.'"

Maybe they saw the kids who flicked the ketchup packets or tossed the bottles at the trench-coat kids in the cafeteria. But things never got out of hand, they say. Evan Todd, the 255-lb. defensive lineman who was wounded in the library, describes the climate this way: "Columbine is a clean, good place except for those rejects," Todd says of Klebold and Harris and their friends. "Most kids didn't want them there. They were into witchcraft. They were into voodoo dolls. Sure, we teased them. But what do you expect with kids who come to school with weird hairdos and horns on their hats? It's not just jocks; the whole school's disgusted with them. They're a bunch of homos, grabbing each other's private parts. If you want to get rid of someone, usually you tease 'em. So the whole school would call them homos, and when they did something sick, we'd tell them, 'You're sick and that's wrong.'"

Others agree that the whole social-cruelty angle was overblown -- just like the notion that the Trench Coat Mafia was some kind of gang, which it never was. Steven Meier, an English teacher and adviser to the school newspaper, says, "I think these kids wanted to do something that they could be famous for. Other people tend to wait until they graduate and try to make their mark in the working world and try to be famous in a positive way. I think these kids had a dismal view of life and of their own mortality. To just focus on the bullying aspect is just to focus on one small piece of the entire picture." Meier points out that Harris' brother, from all accounts, is a great kid. "Why would a family have one good son and one bad son?" asks Meier. "Why is it that some people turn out to be rotten?"

The killers made their last videotape on the morning of the massacre. This is the only tape the Klebolds have seen; the Harrises have seen none of them. First Harris holds the camera while Klebold speaks. As the camera zooms in tight, Klebold is wearing a Boston Red Sox cap, turned backward. "It's a half-hour before our Judgment Day," Klebold says into the camera. He wants to tell his parents goodbye. "I didn't like life very much," he says. "Just know I'm going to a better place than here," he says.

He takes the camera from Harris, who begins his quick goodbye. "I know my mom and dad will be in shock and disbelief," he says. "I can't help it."

Klebold interrupts. "It's what we had to do," he says. Then they list some favorite CDs and other belongings that they want to will to certain friends. Klebold snaps his fingers for Harris to hurry up. Time's running out.

"That's it," concludes Harris, very succinctly. "Sorry. Goodbye."

-- With reporting by Andrew Goldstein, Maureen Harrington and Richard Woodbury/Littleton

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Monday, July 4, 2011

How Michele Bachmann's Surge Reshuffles the GOP Presidential Race (Time.com)

Last week's Des Moines Register poll tells us - assuming nothing actually happens in Iowa over the next six months - that about 22% of the 125,000 or so Hawkeyes most likely to show up for next year's Republican caucus will do so intending to vote for Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann.

The Bachmann Express is the first big surge by a fresh face in the 2012 Republican primary sweepstakes. Reporters have dropped their obsession with Sarah Palin and scampered in Bachmann's direction like dogs ditching chewed-up bones for a fresh slice of porterhouse. Liberals already nervous about the President's failures on the economy and his cynical wiggling on gay marriage now curse at a new villain on their television screens, secretly hoping Tina Fey does something and quick, because this new GOP bogeywoman seems far more polished, and therefore more worrisome, than Palin ever was. GOP professionals curse under their breath and reach for another Excedrin. Damn, they say, what is it about our party base and hopelessly unelectable women in snappy outfits? (See Michele Bachmann in the 2011 TIME 100.)

Meanwhile, poor Tim Pawlenty thumbs through the St. Paul Yellow Pages looking for a discreet therapist. For years, Bachmann sat howling on the noisy backbenches in the Minnesota senate while Pawlenty became the Sun King of state Republican power. Now Bachmann is the new Queen of Iowa, and Pawlenty, at 6% in the Register poll, cannot get arrested. That and a slew of bad press reviews after his New Hampshire debate performance have put his fundraising prospects in peril.

What to make of all this? For starters, a Bachmann candidacy is catnip for the social-conservative wing of the GOP. It's been waiting for a true believer, and unless Texas Governor Rick Perry decides to jump in late, Bachmann can grab a sizable piece of the GOP base, especially in Iowa and South Carolina. Her narrative of a tax lawyer turned antigovernment crusader is the perfect Tea Party rewrite of Mr. Smith Goes to Washington. (See a review of Bachmann's performance at the New Hampshire Republican debate.)

Already, the Bachmann boomlet has reset the expectations game in Iowa. The odds on Palin's jumping into the race lengthen once again. With Pawlenty fighting to survive in Iowa, Jon Huntsman has an easier shot at breaking through in New Hampshire. The Huntsman hype machine must switch from selling the idea of his candidacy to reporters to selling the man himself to real voters. Without stronger New Hampshire poll numbers in the fall, the only precinct Huntsman is likely to carry will be the Morning Joe?roundtable. The hopeful news for both Pawlenty and Huntsman is that for most primary voters, the campaign has yet to begin.

Finally, the billion-watt electron microscopes of the national media will soon be trained on Bachmann now that she's the Official Iowa Front Runner. I'll bet dollars to Minnesota lutefisk that despite her new squad of professional handlers, we are in for more of Bachmann's factual fumbles. Her latest mix-up, confusing beloved American icon John Wayne with serial killer John Wayne Gacy, hints that Michele's next moves on the national stage may receive more than a few boos and flying vegetables from the voting public. While media criticism of her factually erroneous rhetoric will only help her with her populist base, what is gold for America's comedians is a 500-ton lead sinker for any candidate trying to build enough partywide support to actually win the Republican nomination. (See portraits of the Tea Party movement.)

This is why the uncontrolled giggling you hear coming from behind the big blue curtain is from Mitt Romney, who must be delirious with joy. For Romney, a two-way contest with Bachmann is a strategic dream come true. (Disclaimer: I worked for Romney in 2002.) It would draw attention and money away from his two real rivals, Huntsman and Pawlenty, and give him a simple race against a candidate who would remove much of the ambivalence many big-league Republicans still harbor about him. Make no mistake: faced with the terrifying prospect of nominating Bachmann and handing the presidency to Obama, the Republican establishment would rally hard and fast behind Romney. And while a unified Republican establishment in full combat mode cannot compete with the Tea Party when it comes to making cardboard Uncle Sam hats, GOP Inc. can easily crush a candidate like Bachmann over the full series of primaries.

But for now, front runner Romney is more than happy to lie low and let Bachmann eclipse the rest of the GOP field. For now, Michele Bachmann is the change Mitt Romney's been waiting for.

See photos of Sarah Palin and the Tea Party.

See photos of the Republicans invading New Hampshire for the first debate.

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