Strong races await in fall

(PNI) This week's primary election set up intriguing matchups and themes for November's general election.

The 9th Congressional District. Black Republican Vernon Parker and bisexual Democrat Kyrsten Sinema will face off. These two likely would not have been their parties' nominees a decade or two ago.

Both have compelling personal stories. Both grew up in humble circumstances that influenced, in diametrically different ways, their politics today. Both earned law degrees and a level of personal success.

Parker found his answers in the Republican Party, which led him to high positions in both Bush administrations. He returned to Arizona and won election as mayor of upscale, nearly all-White Paradise Valley.

Sinema entered politics through the fringes of the Green Party. She was elected as a Democrat to the Legislature, where she was a liberal bomb thrower early in her early career. But she matured, moderated some positions, learned to work across the aisle and moved into legislative leadership.

In both candidates' pasts is material for negative ads, but voters will be better served if the campaigns let it be.

These two candidates disagree on every significant issue facing America. They are articulate, forceful advocates for their views. This should be a debate about ideas, philosophy and the future of the country. Differences will be obvious without needing to twist the truth or engage in character assassination.

The U.S. Senate race between Rep. Jeff Flake and former Surgeon General Richard Carmona.

Flake, on the strength of his overwhelming victory in the Republican primary, begins the race as the front-runner. His record as a budget hawk puts him in a good position in a year when Rep. Paul Ryan is his party's vice-presidential nominee.

But he has a weakness: The state's business community has seen Flake do virtually nothing to support economic-development efforts and the creation of good Arizona jobs. Supporting business is not the same thing as dispensing pork. If Carmona can make the case that he would be better for job creation, this could be a closer race than pundits predict.

Arizona Senate races.

Primary results have nudged the legislative body in a more moderate direction, where debate can focus on issues that matter instead of unproductive saber rattling.

Bob Worsley's defeat of former Senate President Russell Pearce and Rich Crandall's victory over John Fillmore were wins for pragmatism. And, as a bonus, gun-packing, rumor-spreading Sen. Lori Klein is gone after a single term.

If several races around the state go the right way, the Senate will become the place where silly ideas go to die. It would be a welcome development.

Immigration. It's no longer a winning issue.

The appetite for anti-illegal-immigration legislation had already faded after the bad publicity and high legal bills from Senate Bill 1070. The defeat of five bills during Pearce's final year as Senate president was the first sign of immigration weariness.

Pearce's drubbing in his attempt to return to the Senate should be a warning to any legislator contemplating picking up his baton.

Arizonans are tired of this fight. They want a Legislature focused on the economy and basic state services. Those who won Tuesday and will win in November should give voters what they want.

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No Nomination, but Paul Predicts Strong Contingent at G.O.P. Convention

Representative Ron Paul may be the most libertarian of the Republicans who ran in the 2012 primaries, but he is encouraging his supporters with delegate estimates that veer toward liberal.

In a statement late last night, Mr. Paul suggested that, either officially or in spirit, his backers would represent “just over 20 percent” of the delegates at the Republican National Convention in August.

“And while this total is not enough to win the nomination, it puts us in a tremendous position to grow our movement and shape the future of the GOP!” he said.

“We stand to send nearly 200 bound delegates” to Tampa, Fla., Mr. Paul said, a number that “shatters the predictions of the pundits.” According to The Associated Press, Mr. Paul currently has 137 bound delegates, behind Newt Gingrich. There are still 261 delegates up for grabs: 40 delegates in Utah’s June 26 primary and 43 “super delegates,” with the balance coming from states that have held nominating contests but will not assign all their delegates until local and state conventions. Though Mr. Paul announced last month that he would not actively campaign, his highly organized supporters have successfully racked up delegates in states that Mr. Paul did not win. (For example, though Mr. Paul came in a distant second in Minnesota’s nonbinding caucuses, he has 30 delegates from the state. Rick Santorum, who won, and Mitt Romney both have three.)

A weekend dispute between Paul supporters and other Republican officials at Louisiana’s convention resulted in an arrest.

Mr. Paul also said his campaign would send “several hundred” people who are bound Romney delegates but nonetheless back Mr. Paul’s ideas, resulting in “nearly 500 supporters” on the convention floor — a figure impossible to verify.

“We have never had this kind of opportunity,” he said. “There will be hundreds of your fellow supporters in Tampa who will be ready and willing to push the Republican Party back to its limited government, liberty roots.” Mr. Paul also cautioned his followers to “be respectful.”

Meanwhile, Paul supporters who are trying to plan a multiday festival in his honor in Tampa just days before the official convention are accusing Republican officials of blocking approval for their venues.

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Texas Gov. Rick Perry Could Be Strong GOP Presidential Contender (ContributorNetwork)

COMMENTARY | The recent mass resignations of Gingrich campaign staffers have stoked speculation about a Rick Perry presidential run. Perry, the governor of Texas, once employed Gingrich's now ex-campaign manager, Rob Johnson, and now will again, reports the Blaze.

Despite being wooed by groups like a group of California legislators, Perry's official stance is that he is still "thinking about it," according to Pajamas Media, and is now busy with the special session of the Texas legislature.

If Perry should decide to run, he would enjoy certain bragging rights that few other candidates can have in this era of economic malaise. He has not only balanced a state budget while making painful cuts in the face of opposition from special interest groups, he has presided over a state that has actually increased jobs and fostered economic growth.

According to a Wall Street Journal story, Perry's Texas has added 37 percent of all net jobs in the United States since June 2009 in an era of fitful, 1.8 percent growth. Perry can point to a business-friendly regime of low taxes, low spending, and light regulation as reasons. He might even suggest that Texas' economic growth would have been even greater had it not been for President Obama's war on the oil and gas industry.

That narrative of a Perry campaign practically writes itself: "Let me do for America, what I have done for Texas." It would be a campaign based on a record of executive competence as much as it would be on conservative ideology.

Mitt Romney, still bedeviled by the disaster that is Romneycare, would be hard pressed to offer a reason why he would get the nomination and not Perry. Perry's main rivals would be Tim Pawlenty and, if she decides to get in, Sarah Palin, both of whom have sterling records as governors of their states.

If Perry were to get the nomination, he would provide a conundrum for President Obama and his people. Obama, whose failures in economic policy are manifest, will not be able to contest Perry on that field. The only recourse would be for Obama to go on the attack, accusing Perry of balancing his state budget on the backs of school children, sick people, and the elderly. That strategy has been part of the Democratic playbook for generations and there is no reason for Obama not to use it.

The problem is that a reelection campaign is generally a referendum on the record of the sitting president seeking four more years. If Obama cannot make the case that he deserves four more years to give the country the same medicine that he has given it the first four years, he will be defeated. Jimmy Carter found that out in 1980. George H. W. Bush found that out in 1992. Obama would have to convince people that he would do a better job than a President Perry (or a President Palin, President Pawlenty, or even a President Romney.) If he cannot, he is as done as a Thanksgiving turkey.

Texas resident Mark Whittington writes about state issues for the Yahoo! Contributor Network.

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