Shutdown was sharp lesson for Congress

WASHINGTON — WASHINGTON The one good thing to come out of the 16-day government shutdown is that members of Congress may be reluctant to do it again anytime soon, lawmakers and political analysts say.

Polls reflect anger; GOP takes the biggest hit

Polls conducted during the shutdown showed Americans were angry at lawmakers in both parties over the government shutdown, although Republicans received the biggest share of the blame.

A poll released Oct. 15 by the Pew Research Center showed a 43 percent approval rating for President Barack Obama, a 31 percent approval rating for Democratic congressional leaders and a 20 percent approval rating for Republican leaders. Asked whom they blamed for the shutdown, 46 percent said Republicans and 37 percent said the Obama administration.

The poll had a margin of error of about plus or minus 3percentage points.

The political brinksmanship cost the economy $24 billion, prompted criticism from world leaders and put some government offices and 800,000 federal employees out of work. Public support for the Republican Party dipped to historic lows, even as anger toward incumbents of both parties spiked.

Americans will soon see if Congress is taking a new path. The deal approved Wednesday to reopen the government funds federal agencies only through Jan. 15 and raises the nation's borrowing limit through Feb. 7. House and Senate negotiators will have to reach a new budget deal over the next few months to avert another shutdown and debt-ceiling crisis.

"The only thing this shutdown did was put our dysfunction on display," said Sen. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., who was part of a bipartisan group that helped craft the deal to reopen the government. "People will think twice before they go down that road again."

The House Republicans and GOP senators who tried to use the government shutdown to derail the Affordable Care Act ended up with nothing to show for their efforts, said Jack Pitney, a political-science professor at Claremont McKenna College in California.

In the end, 87 House Republicans out of 232 voted against the deal, refusing to give in.

Their failure makes it less likely more-mainstream Republicans will support those tactics again, Pitney said. They are now more likely to stand up to their "tea party" colleagues and oppose a strategy that forces a shutdown, he said.

"I think a lot of members have gotten the message that this strategy doesn't work," Pitney said. "Now whether the most hard-core members have absorbed that knowledge remains to be seen. But I think most Republicans realize that the president is not going to fold, and that probably reduces the chances of a shutdown happening again. We'll see."

The shutdown was only the most recent clash over federal spending that has characterized Congress in recent years. Both chambers of Congress have not agreed on a budget resolution since 2009. While not binding, such resolutions provide a blueprint for the House and Senate appropriations committees to decide how to spend billions of dollars of taxpayer money.

The failure of Congress to pass a budget or individual spending bills for federal agencies has forced lawmakers to pass "continuing resolutions" to keep the government funded. The 16-day shutdown occurred when Congress failed to pass the latest continuing resolution.

The Arizona Republicans in the House who fought to delay or defund the president's signature health-care law acknowledged the episode didn't end well for them.

"At the end of the day, I don't think we got a lot," said Rep. David Schweikert, R-Ariz., who voted against the deal that reopened the government.

Still, Schweikert said he is optimistic the crisis sparked a renewed commitment by both sides in Congress to come together and pass a budget.

"I don't think that (another shutdown) happens," Schweikert said. "I think there is a new emphasis to get the budget and appropriations committees fired up to get us through the budget process."

Rep. Paul Gosar, R-Ariz., said he was frustrated many Republicans caved to Democrats by voting for the bipartisan deal to reopen the government and raise the debt ceiling.

"All we've done is taught a spoiled child they're going to get their way," he said.

Despite the outcome, it was worth the effort, Gosar said. He vowed that he and other Republicans will continue to try to block the 3-year-old health-care law for the remainder of Obama's presidency.

"I don't know how Republicans lost at all," he said. "We had a conversation with the American people on a program that is destined to fail."

Rep. Trent Franks, R-Ariz., said Republicans came away with the small victory of keeping the automatic, across-the-board "sequestration" budget cuts in place for fiscal 2014 -- at least until Jan. 15, when the current deal expires.

But the threat that the Affordable Care Act poses to "the fiscal survival of the country" was too great to ignore, Franks said.

"We control one-half of one-third of the American government," he said,referring to the GOP-controlled House. "Until the people of this country find both the wisdom and the will to change that equation, people like me are going to struggle to arrest America's march toward socialized medicine."

While the tea-party faction of the Republican Party defends its tactics, most members of Congress argue the shutdown was too painful to repeat, said Patrick Kenney, a political-science professor and director of the Institute for Social Science Research at Arizona State University.

"There was just too much cost in terms of real people's lives," Kenney said. "There was cost to citizens, to businesses and to the political parties. Both parties lost standing in the eyes of the public, but Republicans lost more. I think they will work really hard to avoid another shutdown if they can."

Rep. Ed Pastor, D-Ariz., said he hopes most lawmakers learned that there are no winners in a shutdown. "Everybody lost," Pastor said.

Congress must find a way to get back to the regular process of holding budget-committee meetings and negotiations to decide how much government will spend and what its priorities will be, Kenney said. "There is no magic bullet here," he said. "There's no good alternative to old-fashioned committee work and negotiating between the two parties. Threatening another shutdown is not going to accomplish what months of hard work through the committee process can accomplish."

Negotiators from the House and Senate budget committees have already begun meeting as part of the deal that Congress reached to reopen the government. They have a deadline of mid-December to complete proposals for compromises on a budget plan and report back.

A spokeswoman for Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, D-Ariz., said there is a lot riding on those budget negotiations.

"A key factor will be how the negotiations in the conference committee play out," said spokeswoman Jennifer Johnson. "We'll know that by Dec. 15 and will have a better sense of whether compromise is happening. This cycle of flailing from crisis to crisis must be stopped."

Rep. Ron Barber, D-Ariz., said Congress "cannot allow another round of political brinksmanship."

"We must come together to adopt a bipartisan budget that ends sequestration (automatic budget cuts), creates jobs and protects Social Security and Medicare," he said. "Southern Arizonans have already suffered too much from the economic uncertainty caused by the shutdown, and I am committed to working with my colleagues to find common-sense and long-term solutions to get our fiscal house in order."

But Gosar is pessimistic.

"We're going to be doing this all over again," he predicted. "This agreement by the Senate brings us to another crisis point. We're going to be doing this all next year and through the rest of this president's presidency. This is going to be a rocky road for the American people and for businesses."

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Obama Must Walk Fine Line as Congress Takes Up Agenda

WASHINGTON — The days ahead could be decisive ones for the main pieces of President Obama’s second-term agenda: long-range deficit reduction, gun safety and changes to immigration law.

With Congress back this week from a recess, bipartisan groups of senators who have been negotiating about immigration and gun violence are due to unveil their agreements, though prospects for a gun deal are in question as the emotional impact of the massacre in Newtown, Conn., has faded and the National Rifle Association has marshaled opposition. And on Wednesday, Mr. Obama will send his annual budget to Capitol Hill intended as a compromise offer, though early signs suggest that Republican leaders have little interest in reviving talks.

Members of both parties say Mr. Obama faces a conundrum with his legislative approach to a deeply polarized Congress. In the past, when he has stayed aloof from legislative action, Republicans and others have accused him of a lack of leadership; when he has gotten involved, they have complained that they could not support any bill so closely identified with Mr. Obama without risking the contempt of conservative voters.

Representative Chris Van Hollen, Democrat of Maryland, called this predicament Mr. Obama’s “Catch-22.” And Senator Mark Warner, Democrat of Virginia, said he had often seen it at work since 2010 while negotiating with Republican lawmakers to reach a long-term budget agreement.

At times, Mr. Warner said, Republicans would urge him to get Mr. Obama more involved, saying, “Gosh, Warner, we’ve got to have the president.” Other times, he said, the same lawmakers would plead otherwise, saying, “If the president comes out for this, you know it is going to kill us in the House.”

“Everybody wants him involved to the right degree at the right moment,” Mr. Warner said, “but not anytime before or after.”

The challenge for Mr. Obama became evident as soon as he took office, when Republicans almost unanimously opposed his economic stimulus package even as the recession was erasing nearly 800,000 jobs a month. The author Robert Draper opened his recent book about the House, “Do Not Ask What Good We Do,” with an account from Republican leaders who dined together on the night of Mr. Obama’s 2009 inauguration and agreed that the way to regain power was to oppose whatever he proposed.

Though Mr. Obama was able to prevail over Republican opposition in his first two years as president because Democrats had majorities in the House and the Senate, that changed when Republicans won control of the House in 2010, giving them a brake to apply to the president’s agenda.

Other than the stimulus experience in early 2009, the moment that most captured that polarization for the White House occurred a year later. In early 2010 Republican senators, including the minority leader, Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, demanded that Mr. Obama endorse bipartisan legislation to create a deficit-reduction commission. But when he finally did so, they voted against the bill, killing it.

Now the president’s three pending priorities are shaping up as test cases for how he and Republicans will work together — or not — in his second term.

Each measure — on the budget, guns and immigration — in its own way illustrates the fine line that Mr. Obama must walk to succeed even with national opinion on his side. Privately, the White House is optimistic only about the prospects for an immigration bill, which would create a path to citizenship for about 11 million people in the country illegally.

That is because an immigration compromise is the only one that Republicans see as being in their own interests, given their party’s unpopularity with the fast-growing Latino electorate. In contrast, most Republicans see little advantage in backing gun legislation, given hostility toward it in their states or in districts throughout the South and the West and in rural areas. A budget compromise would require agreeing to higher taxes, which are anathema to conservative voters, in exchange for Mr. Obama’s support for the reductions in Medicare and Social Security that they want.

Yet even on immigration, many Republicans are weighing their party’s long-term interests in supporting a compromise against their own short-term arguments for opposing one: antipathy remains deep in conservative districts to any proposal that would grant citizenship. That calculation also holds for Republicans planning to seek the 2016 presidential nomination.

Against this backdrop, Mr. Obama early on outlined elements that he wanted in the immigration and gun measures. Then he purposely left the drafting to Congress. Senior aides, mainly the chief of staff, Denis R. McDonough, and the deputy chief of staff, Rob Nabors, check in daily with senators. Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. stays in touch with his former Senate colleagues about the gun bill talks.

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In Congress, a Shrinking Pool of Moderates

A potent combination of Congressional redistricting, retirements of fed-up lawmakers and campaign spending by special interests is pushing out moderate members of both parties, leaving a shrinking corps of consensus builders.

Middle-of-the-road Democrats, known as Blue Dogs, have been all but eviscerated from the House over the last few elections, and now three who have been in the Republicans’ cross hairs for years are fighting uphill battles for re-election.

Among Republicans, Senator Olympia J. Snowe of Maine and Representative Steven C. LaTourette of Ohio, weary of partisan battles, chose to retire this year, and some, like Representative Charles Bass of New Hampshire, have found themselves moving away from the center to survive, a technique employed by Senator Richard G. Lugar of Indiana, who found it was too little too late and lost his primary campaign.

“We don’t have a Congress anymore, we have a parliament,” said Representative Jim Cooper of Tennessee, one of the last Blue Dogs. “We moderates are an endangered species, but we are also a necessary ingredient for any problem solving.”

The House is more polarized than at any time in the last century, according to models built by Keith Poole, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Rochester, and Howard Rosenthal, professor emeritus of social sciences at Princeton University. The last time the Senate was this divided, according to the joint research, was a century ago.

While Americans say they want an end to partisan bickering in Washington, Mr. Cooper said, they vote to maintain the system that has created it. “It’s like Hollywood movies,” he said. “Most people say there is too much violence and sex, but those are the only tickets that sell.”

Representatives Larry Kissell of North Carolina, John Barrow of Georgia and Jim Matheson of Utah, all Blue Dogs, appear to be losing ground in their races for re-election. Because of redistricting, their constituencies have become less familiar with them, making them easier targets for outside groups that have been spending heavily on ads to unseat them. Their poll numbers have been dropping throughout this cycle.

Many other more moderate Democrats, including Representatives Dan Boren of Oklahoma and Mike Ross of Arkansas, and Senators Ben Nelson of Nebraska and Kent Conrad of North Dakota, chose to hand over their member pins rather than seek re-election.

In theory, the dearth of moderates means it will be even harder next year for Congress — which failed to put together even mundane measures like farm and highway legislation without a massive fight this session — to pass bills.

But Congress is facing so many potentially calamitous tax and budget issues that another theory is brewing: a combination of Democrats, once adverse to changes to entitlements, and senior Republicans may form some sort of new deal-making consensus through sheer necessity to avoid large tax increases and massive military cuts.

“If Republicans think by embracing the Tea Party it is a loser politically,” said Senator Charles E. Schumer of New York, the No. 3 Democrat. “it may strengthen the hands of the mainstream conservatives” to make deals with the 10 or so moderate Democrats in the Senate who are interested in reforming the Medicare program and other entitlements.

Further,  there is an emerging push on the Democratic side toward the center among many of their Senate candidates, like  Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota, Joe Donnelly in Indiana, Tim Kaine in Virginia and Richard Carmona in Arizona, who all are  running as pragmatic centrists willing to work with Republicans

For this to happen, according to moderates from both parties and several Congressional experts, the next president will have to make conciliation a top priority.

“The next president has to channel Lyndon Johnson and seize the levels of power and make Congress work,” said former Representative Jane Harman, a moderate Democrat from California who resigned last year to become the director of the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington. “Obama talked about it and tried it briefly, but would sustained effort have helped with this Congress? I think so.”

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Top Obama aide vents frustration with Congress (Reuters)

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – A top aide to President Barack Obama expressed frustration on Friday with his fellow Democrats as well as Republican members of Congress for resisting the White House's domestic agenda.

The comments by Obama's chief of staff William Daley, made in an interview with the Politico newspaper, could add to tension that has arisen between Obama and some congressional Democrats.

"On the domestic side, both Democrats and Republicans have really made it very difficult for the president to be anything like a chief executive," Daley told Politico. "This has led to a kind of frustration."

Some Democrats have been unhappy with Obama's handling of this year's budget battles, viewing him as having been too willing to compromise with Republicans on their demands for spending cuts to cherished social programs.

"There's no question that Democrats haven't agreed, or some Democrats haven't agreed, with every position the president has taken on every issue," White House spokesman Jay Carney told reporters.

Democrats were upset when word leaked out last summer about the shape of a "grand bargain" on deficit reduction that was discussed between Obama and Republican House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner. Under discussion were changes to the Social Security retirement program that Democrats opposed.

Ultimately, Boehner walked away from the talks because his fellow Republicans balked.

Carney, seeming to play down Daley's comments, said it had been Republicans, not Democrats, who have thwarted the president's agenda.

"The obstacle to getting things done that the American people want done on the economy and jobs has been congressional Republicans," Carney said.

Obama this week took a series of actions on the economy, including steps to help struggling homeowners, college students and small businesses, that do not require congressional action.

Rolling out a new slogan, "We can't wait," Obama has pledged to take further executive actions.

The White House has sought to paint Republicans as obstructionists for impeding his $447 billion jobs package and the new executive actions are aimed at part in putting pressure on them to work with the administration on that legislation.

(Writing by Caren Bohan; Editing by Eric Walsh)

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LAST TICKET: Alec Baldwin might run for NYC mayor; Weiner might be redistricted out of Congress (The Ticket)

Here are the stories we took note of today but didn't give the full blog treatment:

• Alec Baldwin might run for New York City mayor. (New York Daily News)

• Is health care actually dogging Mitt Romney? (The Fix)

• Al Franken seems glum on Obama's re-election chances. (Fox News)

• Even if he doesn't resign Anthony Weiner could end up losing his district. (The Fix)

• John Boehner has more expenses these days. (Roll Call)

• Tea party groups are warring over Romney. (HuffPo)

• Orrin Hatch trashes Jason Chaffetz. (The Hill)

• Cheri Daniels isn't into her husband, Mitch, being VP any more than she like the idea of him running for president. (Politico)

• Herman Cain admits he doesn't know much about foreign policy. (The Brody File)

• Rudy Giuliani says he'll decide by the end of the summer on a 2012 run. (Boston Globe)

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