2012 GOP race: Is the South irrelevant?

Dixie is rejecting frontrunner Mitt Romney, who may become the nominee in spite of the South, not because of it With Super Tuesday behind them, the Republican presidential candidates are gearing up for potentially critical contests in Alabama and Mississippi on March 13. For decades, the rule of thumb for Republican hopefuls has been: You have to win the South to bag the party's nomination. But this year, national frontrunner Mitt Romney, who has roots in the Midwest and Northeast, has failed to connect with Southern voters. He even conceded that Tuesday's Deep South votes will be "a bit of an away game" for him. And yet, because of his string of wins elsewhere, Romney is the strong favorite to emerge as the GOP nominee. Has the South lost its influence?

The South has become "irrelevant": In election after election, the GOP nominee has "minted his crown in South Carolina," says David Weigel at Slate. But this year, the Palmetto State picked Newt Gingrich, who almost certainly won't be the nominee. Meanwhile, Romney — the almost certain nominee embraced by the GOP mainstream — hasn't come within 9 percent of winning a Southern state. You'd have to travel "far, far back in time to find another Republican primary where the South was this irrelevant."
"Down and out in the Deep South"

The South is still critical: Tuesday's "challenging" Southern primaries are the "biggest test" yet for Romney, says Holly Bailey at Yahoo. And while Team Romney argues that it's "nearly impossible" for Santorum to catch the frontrunner nationally, more losses in the South would hurt Romney's ongoing attempt "to woo the party's conservative base," "prolong the primary," "limit Romney's ability to establish momentum," and damage his aura of inevitability. Clearly, the South matters a great deal.
"Mitt Romney faces challenging primaries in Mississippi and Alabama"

Of course the South matters... in November: The South remains "a critical building block for any winning GOP coalition in the fall," says Nia-Malika Henderson at The Washington Post. But Romney has to "thread the needle." If he embraces "extreme" stands on abortion and immigration, he might just win over reluctant Southern conservatives. But doing so could make him toxic to independents in a matchup with President Obama.
"Deep South primaries offer little hope for Romney, opportunity for Santorum"

SEE MORE: Mini-Mitt's massive Super Tuesday challenge

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Senate blocks bid to speed pipeline from Canada

WASHINGTON (AP) — Under pressure from the White House, the Democratic-controlled Senate on Thursday blocked a Republican bid to speed approval of an oil pipeline from Canada to Texas.

The 56-42 vote came after President Barack Obama called Democratic senators to lobby them to oppose the 1,700-mile Keystone XL pipeline, which would carry tar sands oil from western Canada to refineries along the Texas Gulf Coast.

Even so, 11 Democrats sided with Republicans to sidestep Obama's rejection of the pipeline and allow the $7 billion project to go forward. Sixty votes were needed for approval.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., blasted Obama after the vote.

"President Obama's personal pleas to wavering senators may have tipped the balance against this legislation. When it comes to delays over Keystone, anyone looking for a culprit should now look no further than the Oval Office," McConnell said.

Democratic opposition to the pipeline "shows how deeply out of touch they are with the concerns of middle-class Americans," McConnell added.

White House press secretary Jay Carney confirmed that Obama called senators, but did not identify them.

"The president believes that it is wrong to play politics with a pipeline project whose route has yet to be proposed," Carney said, referring to a yet-to-be-settled route that would avoid the environmentally sensitive Sandhills region in Nebraska. Obama had cited uncertainty over the Nebraska route in rejecting the pipeline in January. The president said there was not enough time for a fair review before a deadline forced on him by Republicans.

Carney dismissed GOP claims that the pipeline would ease rising prices at the gas pump as "false advertising."

Carney called the Republican proposal "ineffectual sham legislation that has no impact on the price of gas and is irresponsible because, as we said before, it tries to legislate the approval of a pipeline for which there is not even a route." The State Department initially had blocked the project in November, citing concerns about a proposed route through the Sandhills.

Pipeline supporters, including congressional Republicans, the oil industry and some labor groups, have been attacking Obama for blocking the pipeline, which they say could create thousands of jobs and provide a stable source of oil from a close neighbor and ally.

Democrats and environmental groups counter that the pipeline would transport "dirty oil" that takes huge amounts of energy to extract, adding to the pollution blamed for global warming. They also worry about a catastrophic oil spill.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada said the Republican amendment, sponsored by Sen. John Hoeven of North Dakota, would have short-circuited the process needed to plan the best route for the pipeline.

"If Republicans truly want to move ahead with this pipeline, they should stop treating it like a political football," Reid said, noting that the GOP inserted a pipeline provision into an unrelated tax bill in December. It was that bill that led to Obama's rejection of the pipeline in January.

The pipeline operator, Calgary-based TransCanada, said last month it would build a portion of the pipeline from Oklahoma to Texas. That 485-mile line from Cushing, Okla., to Port Arthur, Texas, does not require presidential approval because it does not cross a U.S. border.

The Obama administration had suggested development of an Oklahoma-to-Texas line to alleviate an oil bottleneck at a Cushing storage hub.

"Half of the pipeline is already being built, and the company building the pipeline is submitting another application for the remainder of the route," Reid said, adding that the permit process should be given time to work and not be affected Republican desires "to appease the tea party or big oil companies."

Sen. Jon Tester of Montana, one of the 11 Democrats who voted in favor of the pipeline, said he was disappointed by the Senate vote.

"Congress missed another chance to move the ball forward," Tester said, adding that the pipeline will put Montana residents to work and increase U.S. energy security.

"I'll keep fighting to see it built - and built responsibly," he said.

Tester faces a tight re-election race against Republican Rep. Denny Rehberg, who supports the pipeline.

The pipeline would run through Montana, South Dakota, Kansas, Nebraska and Oklahoma before reaching Texas.

___

Follow Matthew Daly's energy coverage on Twitter: (at)MatthewDalyWDC

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Santorum Says Romney GOP's 'Weakest Candidate' -- but He's Not

COMMENTARY | Just before Super Tuesday, presidential hopeful Rick Santorum told Ohioans that his chief rival, Mitt Romney, was the Republican Party's "weakest candidate" to oppose President Barack Obama in November, offering himself as a more optimal choice. Citing Romney's association with Massachusetts health care, the supposed blueprint for the much-maligned national health care system ("Obamacare"), Santorum said it would hurt Romney's chances of winning.

But Santorum could be wrong...

"He would be the weakest candidate we could possibly put forward on the most important issue of today," the former Pennsylvania senator asserted, according to CNN, the "important issue" being health care.

Santorum supported his comments with a 2009 USA Today op-ed piece written by Romney himself, where he called on Obama to get ideas on how to better construct the national health care legislation. He said that the former Massachusetts governor was going to have a difficult time avoiding and/or defending against questions about the plans' similarities if he won the Republican nomination.

But therein might lay the strength in Romney's position. Instead of avoiding or defending, perhaps embracing the issue and simply pointing out the differences in the two health care plans could prove beneficial to his campaign. Instead of taking the stance that the health care system in Massachusetts and the national system proposed by the Affordable Health Care Act of 2010 are so different, Romney could point out what should be dispensed with nationally and what, if anything, could be enhanced or replaced.

Because: Not everyone is opposed to the Health Care provisions. In fact, a Pew Research poll released in November revealed that 38 percent of Americans wanted the legislation repealed, while 31 percent want it expanded. Another 22 percent believed it should be left as is.

Although Romney would be certain to take some hits from the party die-hards (especially Tea Party movement members), a stance that merely defends the Massachusetts plan and points out the weaknesses of "Obamacare" would more likely find traction among independent voters and conservative Democrats, appealing to far more Americans than the avid repeal message being sent by Santorum. He is also less likely to alienate most Republicans in this fashion, many of whom will vote for him simply because he is the GOP candidate.

"Weakest" candidate because of health care? Hardly. Santorum should worry that more Republicans, regardless of their personal positions, don't see it as an electable strength.

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House Republicans look to reshape birth control debate

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. House Republican leaders are looking for a way to reshape the debate over the administration's new rule on birth-control insurance coverage before moving ahead with a bid to nullify the requirement.

Representative Jeff Fortenberry, who has introduced legislation on the issue, acknowledged hesitation by some fellow Republicans to take on the incendiary issue. But he said a delay could give Republicans time to recast the issue as a question of religious freedom rather than women's rights.

"We'll keep trying to appropriately frame the debate about this core American principle," Fortenberry said.

Representative Pete Sessions, who heads the House Republican campaign committee, said party leaders are not backing off. "We're not hesitant to do anything," Sessions said. "The successful rain dance has a lot to do with timing."

House Republicans have taken a cautious approach after the Senate, mostly on party lines, rejected a measure that would have allowed employers with moral objections to opt out of birth control coverage and other services.

The administration's plan would require employers, including charities and other religious institutions, to provide contraception coverage at no extra charge.

Senator Roy Blunt, who offered the Senate measure, said Democrats' framing of the issue as a women's rights question proved to be a problem. "We're not going to win that debate on birth control," said Blunt. "But the debate over religious liberty is not going to go away."

The issue has made some Republicans cautious in an election year, when most voters are concerned about U.S. economic growth and job creation, said one aide.

A spokeswoman for House Majority Leader Eric Cantor said Republican leaders were still discussing with members how best to move forward.

Fortenberry said it is unclear whether his legislation will be the bill that moves forward in the House. But he believes he has the votes to ensure passage.

FIRST OBAMA, THEN REPUBLICANS

Obama faced an uproar from religious groups over the administration's birth control requirement. But he moved quickly to quell it by altering the rule so employers with religious affiliations would not be required to offer free birth control to workers.

Insurers would instead bear the onus to provide coverage.

Republicans said the compromise did not go far enough and announced plans to move forward with measures that would override the ruling.

Incendiary comments by conservative talk show host Rush Limbaugh, who called Georgetown University law student Sandra Fluke a "slut" and "prostitute" for speaking out in support of the Obama policy, helped Democrats reframe the issue to their political advantage, analysts said.

Limbaugh, who has lost advertisers who found his comments objectionable, has since apologized.

"It looked like an attack on women and women are the majority of the electorate," she Jennifer Lawless of the Women and Politics Institute at American University.

A Kaiser Family Foundation survey last week of 1,500 adults showed nearly two-thirds of Americans favor Obama's policy, including clear majorities of Catholics and evangelicals.

A number of religious groups have filed lawsuits challenging the new rule.

Republican strategist Ron Bonjean, a former congressional aide, said House Speaker John Boehner has good reason to schedule a vote on a measure to overturn the rule.

"While jobs and the economy are the number one issue, this is one of those niche issues that can really make a difference in the election among Catholic voters," he said.

"They respond well to the issue of religious freedoms," he added. "If Catholic congregations hear that Republicans are on their side, that can only help them in November."

(Reporting By Donna Smith; editing by Marilyn W. Thompson and Todd Eastham)

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US Senate blocks bid to speed pipeline from Canada

WASHINGTON (AP) — Under pressure from the White House, the Democratic-controlled Senate blocked a Republican bid Thursday to speed approval of an oil pipeline from Canada to Texas.

The 56-42 vote came after President Barack Obama called Democratic senators to urge them to oppose the 1,700-mile (2,735-kilometer) Keystone XL pipeline, which would carry tar sands oil from western Canada to refineries along the Texas Gulf Coast.

Even so, 11 Democrats sided with Republicans to sidestep Obama's rejection of the pipeline and allow the $7 billion project to go forward. Sixty votes were needed for approval.

The leader of the Senate's Republican minority, Sen.Mitch McConnell blasted Obama after the vote.

"President Obama's personal pleas to wavering senators may have tipped the balance against this legislation. When it comes to delays over Keystone, anyone looking for a culprit should now look no further than the Oval Office," McConnell said.

Democratic opposition to the pipeline "shows how deeply out of touch they are with the concerns of middle-class Americans," McConnell added.

White House press secretary Jay Carney confirmed that Obama called senators but did not identify them.

"The president believes that it is wrong to play politics with a pipeline project whose route has yet to be proposed," Carney said, referring to a yet-to-be-settled route that would avoid the environmentally sensitive Sandhills region in Nebraska. Obama had cited uncertainty over the Nebraska route in rejecting the pipeline in January. The president said there was not enough time for a fair review before a deadline forced on him by Republicans.

Carney dismissed Republican claims that the pipeline would ease rising prices at the gas pump as "false advertising."

Carney called the Republican proposal "ineffectual sham legislation that has no impact on the price of gas and is irresponsible because, as we said before, it tries to legislate the approval of a pipeline for which there is not even a route." The State Department initially had blocked the project in November, citing worries about a proposed route through the Sandhills.

Pipeline supporters, including congressional Republicans, the oil industry and some labor groups, have been attacking Obama for blocking the pipeline, which they say could create thousands of jobs and provide a stable source of oil from a close neighbor and ally.

Democrats and environmental groups counter that the pipeline would transport "dirty oil" that takes huge amounts of energy to extract, which would add to the pollution blamed for global warming. They also worry about a catastrophic oil spill.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada said the Republican amendment, sponsored by Sen. John Hoeven of North Dakota, would have short-circuited the process needed to plan the best route for the pipeline.

"If Republicans truly want to move ahead with this pipeline, they should stop treating it like a political football," Reid said, noting that the Republicans inserted a pipeline provision into an unrelated tax bill in December. It was that bill that led to Obama's rejection of the pipeline in January.

The pipeline operator, Calgary-based TransCanada, said last month it would build a portion of the pipeline from Oklahoma to Texas. That 485-mile (780-kilometer) line from Cushing, Oklahoma, to Port Arthur, Texas, does not require presidential approval because it does not cross a U.S. border.

The Obama administration had suggested development of an Oklahoma-to-Texas line to alleviate an oil bottleneck at a Cushing storage hub.

"Half of the pipeline is already being built, and the company building the pipeline is submitting another application for the remainder of the route," Reid said, adding that the permit process should be given time to work and not be affected by Republican desires "to appease the tea party or big oil companies."

___

Follow Matthew Daly's energy coverage on Twitter: (at)MatthewDalyWDC

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Blue-collar voters elude presidential hopeful Romney

BOSTON (Reuters) - Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney is finding it tough to connect with lower-income voters in his own party, a record that bodes poorly for success in a potential general election contest with President Barack Obama.

A stream of memorable gaffes on the topic of wealth - Romney is one of the richest men ever to seek the presidency - has cast the former venture capital executive as out of touch with the concerns of working Americans.

"Romney is the most 'gaffe specific' candidate in recent memory. Typically candidates scatter their gaffes among different topics, but for Romney it's only when he talks about his wealth that he stumbles," said Dan Schnur, who was communications director for Sen. John McCain's 2000 primary campaign against George W. Bush.

Romney won the Ohio Republican primary on Tuesday but trailed former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum by 11 percentage points among voters making between $50,000 and $100,000 a year and by 6 points among those in the $30,000 to $50,000 category. A similar scenario played out in states that have voted so far in the Republican race to find a challenger to Obama.

"One thing we've seen in virtually all the exit polls is that Romney does less well, regardless of opponent, among lower income voters," said Charles Franklin, visiting professor of law and public policy at Marquette University Law School.

"That's happening within the Republican primary, rather than in the electorate as a whole. It could be expected to be an even bigger problem in the general election."

Lower-income Republicans are more likely to vote on social issues like opposition to abortion and same-sex marriage, where Santorum scores highly. Some also have a suspicion of their party's northeastern business elites, said Franklin.

Ultimately, most Republican primary voters who opted for Santorum or former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich are likely to unite behind Romney in the spirit of partisanship, if he becomes the candidate.

GENERAL ELECTION VOTERS

But independents, whose support tilts the balance, arguably do not have the same type of "anyone but Obama" mentality of many Republicans.

Voters in the general election will also be less wealthy, on average, than those in the Republican primaries, making it essential Romney find a way to connect. In the 2008 general election in Ohio, for example, Obama won 52 percent, compared to 44 percent for Republican John McCain, among the 30 percent of voters who identified themselves as "independent." Obama lost the non-college white vote nationally, but by a smaller margin than his two Democratic predecessors. Only 23 percent of Ohio's 2008 general election voters had incomes over $100,000, well below the 30 percent of Republican primary voters this week in that range.

In Michigan, just 19 percent of 2008 general election voters had incomes of $100,000 or more, against 33 percent of voters in last week's Republican primary.

"Romney is going to need some working-class votes in Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Iowa and other states to win a general election," said Republican strategist Ford O'Connell.

"As long as the economy is where it's at, he has a chance to win. But he needs to keep his message on the economy simple. Mitt has literally got to roll up his perfectly tailored sleeves and say, ‘I'll work hard for you.'"

With an estimated worth of some $250 million, much of it made as a corporate turnaround specialist, Romney might always be defined by former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee's 2008 quip that Romney "looks like the guy who fired you."

MEMORABLE GAFFES

In his second bid for the White House, Romney has kept a tight focus on his jobs-and-the-economy message. But in situations where he has been forced to ad-lib, the gaffes about wealth have come regularly. Visiting the Daytona 500 car race in February, the former Massachusetts governor said he doesn't follow car racing closely but has "some great friends who are NASCAR team owners."

The owner of three homes, who is doing a multi-million-dollar knockdown at his La Jolla, California, oceanfront estate, also recently offered details of his car collection, including his wife's two Cadillacs.

Romney's offer during a December debate to have a "$10,000 bet" with then-rival Rick Perry was not quickly forgotten. Weeks later, in New Hampshire, Romney stopped for a photo opportunity at a gas station, pumping diesel into his campaign bus.

While there, he ogled a classic car owned by the gas station's manager and wondered if it was for sale. She shot back, "Sure. Ten thousand dollars."

Suggesting Romney probably has "deep-seated psychological reasons" for being uncomfortable talking about money, Schnur suggested confronting the issue head-on.

"The best thing for him might be to try to explain to voters why he sounds awkward - perhaps that he was brought up to sound modest and not claim to be better than other people. 'I'm going to sound awkward when I talk about it. I hope you will be able to look past the occasional awkward comment,'" Schnur said.

At this point, with a large lead among Republican delegates despite a voter enthusiasm gap, Franklin said Romney's best bet was to stay the course, adding that the gaffes - which he termed accidental truth-telling - about wealth reflect "the definitive nature of Romney, it's who he is." "When candidates try to shift in mid-campaign to patch over a weakness, they are rarely successful. Romney is not in a good position to pivot to a new set of issues. He's better off going back to his core strengths and hoping those are enough. Patience may win out in this case."

(Editing by Todd Eastham)

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Conservative NY congresswoman in redistricting danger — from her own party

New York Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle, ranked by the Club for Growth as the most conservative woman in the House, may have a difficult road to re-election this fall as a result of a redistricting — not because Democrats are trying to get rid of her, but because her own party is.

The redistricting map submitted by the New York Republican state Senate would all but ensure that Buerkle doesn’t win reelection in New York’s 25th District, which she currently represents. The district drawn by the Democratic State Assembly would offer her no better chance. A third compromise map drawn by a judge suits Buerkle much better.

Sources near Buerkle’s campaign suggested that the arrangement of the map was political on the part of state Senate Republicans.

“It’s hardly surprising that Albany politicians and lobbyists have allowed cheap politics to dominate this process,” said a source close to her campaign. “But the voters of New York have grown tired of shady backroom deals, and they will see right through this.”

Buerkle wrote an open letter to the judge in which she made clear just how displeased she was with the map put forward by her own party. She urged that both the Republican and Democratic maps be rejected.

But “when she expressed concerns that the process was unfair [to New York Republican leadership], several folks in the leadership in Albany dismissed her concerns as irrelevant and indicated to the campaign that she didn’t factor in their outcome,” said another source familiar with the situation.

Scott Reif, a spokesman for Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos, called the allegations of political motives “absolutely not true,” in a statement provided to The Daily Caller. “The district lines that we proposed were based on population shifts that occurred since the last census,” Skelos wrote.

But displeasure at Buerkle on the part of the leadership would not be entirely surprising, other sources say.

“Rep. Buerkle has upset the Republican leadership in Washington and Albany on several occasions and doesn’t seem to care much about what they think,” said Republican strategist Michael Caputo. “Not a team player, fiercely independent — call it whatever you want, but she’s not popular among leaders.”

Tom Dadey, Chairman of the Onondaga Republican Party and a Buerkle supporter said that he was calling Republican legislators and urging them to support the judge’s version of the map. He said that if one of the other maps were passed, Buerkle ought to keep her options open and consider running in a different district.

“Obviously I want her to run and get elected in Onondaga county and represent us,” Dadey said, “but on the other hand if she’s going to get railroaded,” he went on, she should consider other possibilities.

Dadey pointed out that unlike other state representatives, Buerkle did not hire lobbyists to plead her case to the state legislature on redistricting, nor did she donate to the campaigns of Republican state legislators, while other members of the New York delegation “contributed heavily.”

Buerkle is ranked by the Club for Growth as the most conservative woman in the U.S. House of Representatives, and by the Heritage Foundation as the most conservative member of the New York delegation. Conservative Party Chairman Mike Long said he would support Buerkle no matter what, even if she primaried another Republican in a nearby district.

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Conservative NY congresswoman in redistricting danger -- from her own party

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